Leaving the NPT: After Israel’s Attack, There’s One Nuclear Card That Iran Can Play

The June 13 Israeli attack on Iran is playing out in the usual format. Arab governments have strongly condemned Israel. The UN Secretary General, in his usual humble way, has pleaded for peace and calm, while fully aware that he is incapable of influencing the major actors – the US and Israel. Most of the Global South has condemned the attack, sympathised with the Iranians and warned that chaos will ensue in the Middle East. Of course, they have been careful not to do anything practical that may offend the US. 

The Indian government has refused to condemn or deplore the attack and even formally dissociated itself from the strong statement issued by the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.

In short, the international community is leaving Israel free to continue its aggressive, even genocidal, policies in the region.

The UN Security Council will, no doubt, have an emergency session but nothing substantive will come out of its deliberations except for meaningless exhortations for calm and peace. In any case, any meaningful attempt to pass a substantive resolution will be vetoed by the US – although it would be interesting to observe how Russia, China and the Europeans react.

Appeals may be made for adherence to international laws and norms but neither Israel nor the US under Trump care for them.

In practical military terms, there is perhaps little that Iran can do to harm Israel. It has fired missiles at Israeli targets and some have struck, causing significant damage,  but the US will provide Israel with all the military hardware at its disposal to blunt the effects of Iranian action. It may even directly take part in military strikes against Iran on behalf of Israel.

On the diplomatic front too, the US may push its European allies to reimpose the punishing UN sanctions held in abeyance so far by the virtually defunct Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement. There is already talk of the UK and France taking steps to trigger the snapback provisions of UNSC 2231. 

However, there are certain actions that Iran can take in the short term to shake up the global complacency about Israel’s warmongering.

For a start, it can reiterate officially that any attempt to reimpose sanctions or subject Iran to further military aggression will lead to Tehran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). Iran can cite many sound and valid reasons for such a step. 

First of all, Israel, a non-NPT state with no international safeguards on its nuclear facilities and material has carried out an attack on safeguarded Iranian nuclear facilities with the connivance and collaboration of the US, a declared nuclear weapon state.

Second, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has been a principal instigator of actions against Iran through its reports which are not those of an impartial agency, whatever its claims. 

For much of its history, the IAEA has been more of a lapdog of the US and the West than that of the global community. As North Korea explained in detail in its note of January 22, 2003 on why it withdrew from NPT:

“In Article 5 of the safeguards agreement, the obligation is specified to strictly protect all data obtained in the process of inspecting other countries' nuclear facilities. Nevertheless, some IAEA Secretariat circles systematically delivered the inspection results of our country to the United States, and the United States came forward demanding "special inspections" of our military facilities with the excuse of some "inconsistencies" or other, which the United States created, complicating the nuclear issue on the Korean peninsula.’

And finally, Article 10 of the NPT clearly states:

“Each Party shall in exercising its national sovereignty have the right to withdraw from the Treaty if it decides that extraordinary events, related to the subject matter of this Treaty, have jeopardized the supreme interests of its country.”

It is not necessary for Iran to state its future intentions (on nuclear weapons) but that will be its sovereign decision.

Such an announcement by Iran will have far greater consequences and result in the global community paying attention to the hostile and belligerent attitude of Israel and the US towards Iran’s progress. 

A number of non-nuclear weapon states party to NPT are already chafing under NPT and IAEA restrictions on their ability to respond to the new security challenges faced by them. In some of these countries – South Korea, for instance – there has been a slow but steady growth in voices advocating for the acquisition of nuclear weapons.

Many countries would probably not be averse to withdrawing from the NPT but have likely held back from doing so because of the uncertainties about the consequences of such a move. After all, India and Pakistan did not sign the NPT and developed and tested nuclear explosive devices. Israel too has developed but not openly tested a nuclear explosive device. North Korea left the NPT and has tested a number of nuclear explosive devices. 

It is even probable that with Iran leaving the NPT – thereby opening the option of developing a nuclear explosive device –  other countries in West Asia, like Saudi Arabia for example, may also start looking at the option of nuclear weapons. 

So far, the international community has treated Israel’s attack on Iran as yet another instance of Tel Aviv’s disregard for international law. But once the world sees the established nuclear non-proliferation order unravelling as a result of reckless Israeli action, it is possible they will realise the folly of giving Israel a free pass.

Gopala Balachandran is a writer on nuclear affairs who was previously with the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, Delhi.

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