On the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on Monday, the United States – in a dramatic volte face reminiscent of its support for the Khmer Rouge in the UN in 1980 – voted against a resolution condemning the Russian invasion of Ukraine, siding with Moscow and among others, North Korea and Belarus. The US was one of 18 countries that opposed the resolution, as against 93 countries including most of the European Union that supported it. India along with Iran and China abstained.
The Trump administration seems to be increasingly isolated on the global stage as it seeks to broker peace in Ukraine. The resolution was presented by Ukraine at the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) and condemned Russia’s aggression and called for the complete and unconditional withdrawal of Russian forces from Ukrainian territory.
However, in the Security Council the US was more successful in having a resolution adopted calling for the swift end to the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. But the vote was another sign of the growing split between the US and its Western allies with five European countries – the UK, France, Slovenia, Greece and Denmark – abstaining. But the US was supported by China, Pakistan, Panama, South Korea and four other countries.
In the past three years of war, tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians and soldiers have died along with the invading Russians. Parts of Ukraine have been destroyed as has a lot of its electricity grid and industrial capacity.
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But what has been staggering is the abrupt American pivot from supporting the war with money and weapons, to embracing Russia. Trump now echoes Russian propaganda that Russia was provoked into invading Ukraine and that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is a dictator. US officials like defence secretary Pete Hegseth says that there will be no return to the pre-2014 territory for Ukraine in any peace formula and neither will Ukraine get NATO membership.
In February 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin spelt out his country’s goals in Ukraine. He said Ukraine was a creation of Lenin and had taken recourse to far right politics and neo-Nazism to build their state. Ukraine military policy was to oppose Russia and in this it was even planning to build nuclear weapons. With US encouragement it was planning to attack Russia before Moscow pre-emptively acted through a special military operation to neutralise the threats. In essence Putin said he would “deNazify” Ukraine and “demilitarise” it.
He said Russian aims were to not just prevent NATO expansion but to roll it back to 1997 when the NATO-Russia Founding Act was signed i.e. before Poland, Czech Republic, Hungary, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia, Albania, Croatia, Montenegro and North Macedonia were admitted into the outfit. However, there was no formal agreement to the effect that NATO would not expand eastwards.
Three years since Russia invaded Ukraine, the Russians are nowhere near their goals. Indeed, the invasion persuaded European “neutrals” Sweden and Finland to join NATO and this extend NATO boundaries with Russia another 1340 kms.
After their coup de main to capture Kyiv failed, Russia has been involved in a war of attrition with Ukraine. Though the latter has paid a huge price in terms of deaths – civilian and military – and in terms of land, it is still slugging it out with the much larger and more powerful Russia.
Meanwhile Moscow has paid a huge reputational cost as is evident from the one-sided outcome of the UN General Assembly resolution. It has paid a much larger price in terms of equipment and soldiers killed and injured. It has probably lost anywhere up to 150,000 killed and several times that number wounded. Russia is short of soldiers and is press-ganging them from North Korea, and other countries including India. It is also running out of military equipment and has begun civilian trucks instead of military ones in many parts of the front.
Russian forces currently control 20% of Ukraine and though for the past year they have maintained steady pressure because of their larger numbers and willingness to take casualties, they have not achieved much. The Institute for the Study of War estimates that Russia’s rate of advance on the frontline has slowed significantly in the last three months.
In August 2024, the Russians were said to be 10 kms from Pokrovosk, a city in eastern Ukraine. But six months later, they have not yet entered the city, though the Ukrainians have more or less evacuated it. Indeed last year, Ukraine took a bite of mighty Russia and captured a chunk of the Kursk district. Amazingly, the Russians are yet to push the Ukrainians out.
Yet, it is a fact that the Russians occupy a large chunk of Ukraine, and the Ukrainians lack the means to liberate the areas that have been captured. Their erstwhile American allies have now bluntly told them that they can forget reclaiming their lost territory. Meanwhile Russian rockets and drones continue to terrorise Ukrainian cities, destroying power grids, schools, homes and public infrastructure.
To rub salt into their wounds, the Americans are also demanding that the Ukrainians turn over revenue from their mineral resources to the US. The US first demanded $500 billion, though the total aid they have given since the war began totals just about $100 billion. There were other onerous clauses in the agreement such as that the Ukraine pay back US twice the amount on any future aid. Some of these have reportedly now been removed and the two countries are likely to sign an agreement when President Zelenskyy visits the US.
The new agreement “establishes a reconstruction investment fund with joint U.S. and Ukraine ownership” and that “Ukraine will contribute 50% of all revenues earned from the future monetisation of all Ukrainian government-owned natural resource assets into the fund.”
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By its new stand on the Ukraine war and its demands on Kyiv for repayment of its aid, the Americans have lost the moral standing they had claimed in opposing the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Indeed, as the NYT suggests, they have shifted “America’s alliance with Ukraine to a nakedly mercantile footing.”
Meanwhile, the Ukrainians seem to have discovered the roots of their nationhood and their morale remains high as is their determination to fight the Russians to the bitter end. A lot depends now on the kind of peace the Americans can deliver, even though the portents are not particularly good.
Manoj Joshi is a distinguished fellow, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.
This piece was first published on The India Cable – a premium newsletter from The Wire & Galileo Ideas – and has been updated and republished here. To subscribe to The India Cable, click here.
