Reform UK's Local Election Win Could Be a Turning Point for British Politics

"We are now Britain’s main opposition party!" That was the boast on Friday of Nigel Farage, leader of the populist Reform UK, in the wake of his party’s bes-ever election results. And this is more than political bombast. His brand of insurgent right-wing populism could indeed be on the brink of remoulding British politics.

For the past 100 years, politics in England has been a two-party business: Labour has a spell in power, then it’s the Conservatives’ turn. As in the United States, an old-fashioned ‘first past the post’ electoral system has made it almost impossible for any new political force to be a serious competitor for power at the national level. Until now!

Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty

In local elections held across much of the country on Thursday, Reform UK came out emphatically on top. It took twice as many seats as the Conservatives, who are competing desperately with Reform for primacy on the right of the political landscape.

"It’s the beginning of the end for the Conservative Party," Farage declared with an impish grin as the results came in. Quite a few Conservatives fear he may be right.

Local elections held every May are the biggest test of the parties’ standing between the general elections held every four or five years. They are not always reliable indicators of who will form the next government. Turnout is lower than in a general election; voters are often more tempted to cast a protest vote; and sometimes, as this year, the local polls are not fully national in scope. So the political mould is under strain rather than broken beyond repair.

But the sheer scale of Reform’s success is astonishing. In Thursday’s voting it won more, many more, council seats than any other party. There was no voting in urban areas where Labour tends do well. But a BBC projection which allows for such factors has given Reform an estimated 30% of the national vote, with Labour well behind on 20% and the Conservatives in fourth place.

This is the first time that a party other than Labour or the Conservatives has been ahead in projected national share of the vote – and the first time that Labour and Conservatives together have accounted for well under half the total vote. It’s a dramatic indication of the fragmentation of British politics.

Coinciding with the local elections, a parliamentary by-election was held in a normally rock-solid Labour seat in north-west England. Reform won that too, though by a wafer-thin margin. Farage’s party has demonstrated its ability to win over large numbers of voters from both main parties.

Reform and its right-wing populist predecessors rose to prominence demanding Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union, which they achieved in the 2016 referendum. Since then, they have been urging stricter limits to immigration and a more robust stand to combat illegal migration.

Of late, they have tapped into a deeper sense of malaise: a feeling that Britain simply isn’t working, that the Labour government has no idea how to solve the country’s problems and that the Conservatives are too timid and divided to make any impact. Reform represents not so much a well-considered raft of right-wing policies as a mood of sullen defiance in the face of what is widely seen as national decline.

Farage has in the past used borderline racist language and styles of argument and was once on good terms with Donald Trump. In recent months, he has sought to tack a little to the centre and has been embroiled in a nasty war of words with Elon Musk, who wanted Reform to be more robustly right-wing.

For Keir Starmer’s Labour Party – which has slumped in popularity since its commanding general election victory just ten months ago – the rise of Reform poses a real dilemma. Starmer’s government may feel impelled to halt Reform’s advance by trying to close down the issues on which they thrive, and particularly by being more restrictive on immigration.

Until now, the notion that Farage could be Britain’s next prime minister seemed outrageously far-fetched. It is no longer quite so implausible. But his party is now running several local councils for the first time and needs to demonstrate that it can govern efficiently as well as exploiting grievances.

Andrew Whitehead is a former BBC India correspondent.

London Calling: How does India look from afar? Looming world power or dysfunctional democracy? And what’s happening in Britain, and the West, that India needs to know about and perhaps learn from? This fortnightly column helps forge the connections so essential in our globalising world.

The Wire is now on WhatsApp. Follow our channel for sharp analysis and opinions on the latest developments.