West Asia finds itself engulfed in an unprecedented turmoil. The region remains a theatre of destruction as ballistic missiles and rockets wreak havoc, with the threat of an expanding conflict looming large. What began as a war in Gaza a year ago now risks stirring a broader regional crisis, with southern Lebanon entrenched in the conflict and the potential for escalation into Iran and Yemen growing ever more conceivable.
For Israel, this moment is marked by military assertiveness, emboldened by the high-profile assassinations of Ismail Haniyeh, the political chief of Hamas, and Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah. Yet, this period of intensifying militarism across regimes in the region brings grave consequences. Iran’s retaliatory strikes and Israel’s stern warnings of future responses on the anniversary of Hamas’s October 7 attacks reveal the precariousness of the situation, as the Gaza war shows no signs of resolution.
On Friday, Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei, leader of the Islamic Revolution, addressed worshippers in Tehran, asserting that every nation, including Palestinians and Lebanese, has the right to defend themselves against aggressors. He remarked that the attack on southern Israel on October 7 was entirely justified. His comments came shortly after the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) launched around 200 missiles at Israeli military sites in retaliation for the assassination of Nasrallah and Haniyeh. Khamenei condemned Israel’s hostile actions in the region since last October, stating that the enemies of Iran are the same as those of the Palestinian, Lebanese, Iraqi, Egyptian, Syrian, and Yemeni nations. He urged Muslim nations to collectively take decisive action against the Zionist regime. This appears to be a call with dangerous implications for the region.
The past year has brought unprecedented devastation to Palestinians and Arab communities across the region. For 12 months, conflict has raged across the Occupied Palestinian Territories, Gaza, Israel, and Lebanon. This escalating violence has now culminated in a full-scale regional war, leaving hundreds of thousands of civilians dead, injured or displaced from their homes. Among the most affected are children, many of whom, a year later, continue to suffer from illness, malnutrition, and the long-lasting effects of war.
The conflict’s latest episode began on October 7 last year, when Hamas militants launched a major attack from Gaza, killing 1,200 people, wounding more than 5,400, and taking 251 hostages, including foreign nationals, within Israel. In retaliation, Israel unleashed large-scale military strikes on Gaza, resulting in the deaths of approximately 42,000 people and injuring over 96,000. Tens of thousands remain buried under the rubble.
The bombardment also claimed the lives of over 400 international volunteers and more than 1,000 medical personnel in Gaza. The humanitarian crisis deepened, with 1.9 million Palestinians – 90% of Gaza’s population – forced to flee their homes, and 2.5 million children in the West Bank and Gaza now facing existential threats. According to UNICEF, nearly 1.5 million children are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance, and the majority of Palestinian families have fallen into poverty.
Meanwhile, in Lebanon, Israeli airstrikes have claimed thousands of lives in recent days, with casualties continuing to mount. Northern Israel has also been affected, including the deaths of children in the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights, and mass displacements have occurred, with over 70,000 people fleeing northern Israel and 80,000 displaced from areas near Gaza. In the West Bank, hundreds of Palestinians have been killed and migrant violence has surged to unprecedented levels since October 7, with thousands of incidents reported.
Despite such devastation, the international community, including the United Nations, remains largely passive and unwilling to take decisive action other than passing resolutions. Earlier this year, the International Court of Justice found that genocide was occurring in Gaza, citing clear evidence of atrocities committed by the Israeli military. In July 2024, the court further declared Israel’s actions to be tantamount to war-like occupation. Despite these rulings, the judgments have gone unimplemented. Not only do the genocide and occupation persist, but there has been no meaningful effort to halt Israel’s actions. This failure to enforce international law had eroded global stability and emboldened authoritarian regimes.
For Palestinians, this is an existential struggle. Western inaction is not merely a violation of international norms; it represents complicity in the ongoing genocide. For decades, the international community has endorsed the two-state solution as the only viable path to peace. However, Israel’s illegal settlements and aggressive territorial occupation have fundamentally altered this situation. The ongoing colonisation of Palestinian land has rendered the prospect of a two-state solution increasingly untenable. Israel’s leadership now openly rejects the very notion of a Palestinian state. In July 2024, the Israeli parliament voted against Palestinian sovereignty, and in December 2023, Israel’s ambassador to Britain publicly affirmed that Israel would not support a two-state solution.
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The establishment of a Palestinian state is no longer a matter of mere political debate; it has become a reflection of deeper, troubling realities. Israeli governments have ceased to even feign interest in peace, outright denying the very existence of the Palestinian people. The Minister of National Security recently asserted that Jewish rights take precedence over Palestinian rights, reinforcing the entrenched apartheid policies and the continued expansion of Jewish settlements. These actions make the prospect of a two-state solution increasingly distant, if not impossible.
Meanwhile, much of the international community remains paralysed between indifference and complicity as Israel continues to violate international law with impunity. This inaction is often framed as political pragmatism, yet it disregards the profound disregard for human life and the failure to uphold international commitments. As global power dynamics shift, with China and Russia expanding their influence, many nations are gravitating toward these emerging powers. Yet, even China and Russia have shown reluctance to meaningfully intervene in the Palestinian issue, maintaining a limited engagement similar to their previous stance.
However, this widespread indifference is fuelling greater mobilisation in many countries. Over the past year, large demonstrations across the United States and Europe have brought people together in opposition to the genocide in Palestine. These protests have united diverse communities in a common stand against apartheid, occupation, and ethnic cleansing. The divide is no longer drawn along religious lines but between those who oppose genocide and those who remain complicit in letting it continue. Increasingly, nations are calling on their governments to take decisive action and demanding sanctions that could bring an end to the occupation and genocide, supporting international legal efforts as well as pushing to halt arms sales to Israel.
Why October 7 attacks
Hamas chose a highly strategic moment for its attack. Israel’s occupation of Palestinian territories had reached unprecedented levels, creating a volatile environment. Compounding this, Hamas was outraged by the normalisation of relations between Israel and several Arab nations that had historically supported the Palestinian cause, viewing these peace agreements as betrayals. Meanwhile, the Palestinian Authority, led by Mahmoud Abbas in the West Bank, was already in conflict with Hamas due to ongoing corruption, mismanagement and divergent approaches to resistance, further deepening the political fragmentation within the Palestinian leadership.
Hamas was particularly angered by the normalisation of ties between several West Asian regimes and Israel through the Abraham Accords. The reconciliation of countries like the UAE, Bahrain, Sudan, Morocco, and Egypt with Israel was seen by Hamas as a betrayal and it had no means to disrupt these diplomatic agreements. Reports that Saudi Arabia, Oman, and Indonesia were moving towards joining the accords further intensified Hamas’s frustration.
Israel, which had previously maintained covert ties with Iran, suffered a significant setback as Iranian-backed groups such as Hezbollah and the Houthis grew closer to Hamas. This period marked the failure of Israel’s strategy to exploit the Shia-Sunni divide, particularly in relation to the Palestinian issue. Hamas also saw an opportunity in Israel’s internal discord, particularly during a time when corruption charges against Netanyahu were mounting. Seizing on Israel’s political instability, Hamas sought to exploit what it perceived as the state’s weakest moment.
Since 2006, when Hamas seized control of Gaza, tensions have only deepened. In the absence of successful diplomatic resolutions, regional countries and political forces have increasingly acted unilaterally, disregarding broader efforts to address the Palestinian issue. Many now overlook the fact that the United Nations had endorsed the creation of a Palestinian state alongside Israel as far back as the Cold War era. Israel was not founded by the destruction of a pre-existing Palestinian state when the partition plan was implemented in 1948. Yet, this raises a critical question: Shouldn’t those responsible for the eventual destruction of Palestine and their supporters be held accountable?
Moreover, even within the Arab world, there was no unified stance on the future of the displaced Palestinian refugees following the partition. Arab nations were often preoccupied with their own political interests, which further weakened the Palestinian cause. These divisions have continually undermined the Palestinians’ fundamental right to return to their homeland, compounding the challenges they face today.
The forced Jewish settlement of the West Bank constitutes a violation of international law, as it contravenes the Fourth Geneva Convention, which prohibits the transfer of an occupying power’s civilian population into the territory it occupies. Likewise, in the case of Jerusalem, the United States and other Western nations have undermined United Nations resolutions that designated the city as an international zone under the UN partition plan. The disregard for these resolutions and international norms has contributed to the ongoing failure of Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, which have stagnated for decades.
The shift began in 1993 when the Palestinian leadership formally recognised the State of Israel through the Oslo Peace Process, while Israel, in turn, recognised the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) as the legitimate representative of the Palestinian people. This led to the creation of the Palestinian Authority with limited autonomy in the occupied territories. However, the prospects for peace quickly unravelled when Benjamin Netanyahu, then opposition leader, denounced the Oslo Accords as a threat to Israel’s security. Upon assuming the office of prime minister in 1996, Netanyahu’s administration endorsed new settlement plans in the occupied territories, reigniting tensions. In response, Hamas intensified its attacks, further entrenching the cycle of violence.
Although the peace process moved forward with the ultimate goal of a two-state solution, it got nowhere. Prime Minister Netanyahu called the US peace plan during Trump’s presidency the ‘deal of the century,’ but the Palestinians rejected it. Israel’s strict restrictions and airstrikes in densely populated areas have been a collective punishment for the people of Gaza. Despite sustained Israeli offensives, Hamas launched several counter-attacks. That is what led to the conflict and war that is now unmanageable.
Israel recognizes that Iran-backed groups such as Hezbollah, Hamas and the Houthis hold significant influence in the region. Prime Minister Netanyahu is convinced that neutralising these forces would secure Israeli dominance and believes that some Arab governments quietly share this ambition. Their interest in the Abraham Accords is largely driven by economic considerations rather than political or moral alignment and a democratically elected Palestinian government would pose a threat to many of these regimes. Historically, Arab states have demonstrated a lack of genuine unity on the Palestinian issue, as seen in their fragmented responses to both the ‘Arab Spring’ and the ongoing Palestinian struggle. If their intentions were truly aligned with their rhetoric, the Arab League or its leading members would have restored Palestinian land long ago. It is no surprise that America’s involvement is limited, especially with the upcoming presidential election, where any significant move against Israel could destabilise both Democratic and Republican positions, reflecting the entrenched bipartisan support for Israel in U.S. politics.
The global community recognises that as long as weapons continue to flow into Israel and other armed groups in the region, the conflict will persist and the suffering of civilians will endure. There is little doubt that the nations supplying these arms – including the United States, Germany, and India – bear significant responsibility for the ongoing Palestinian tragedy. West Asia has long been the largest arms market for the Western military-industrial complex, a sector even more valued by imperialist powers than the region’s oil trade. As a result, perpetual conflict has become a familiar reality in West Asia. The gravest tragedy, however, is that the survival of millions caught in this turmoil remains dependent on little more than unenforced international resolutions.
K.M. Seethi is Director, Inter University Centre for Social Science Research and Extension (IUCSSRE), Mahatma Gandhi University (MGU), Kerala. He also served as ICSSR Senior Fellow, Senior Professor of International Relations and Dean of Social Sciences at MGU.
