What to Expect as the Kurdistan Region of Iraq Goes to Polls

Heavily weathered after years of turmoil in what has been deemed a dynastic, undemocratic and unconstitutional two-party rule, the people of Iraqi Kurdistan will take to the polls on September 30, 2018, in the hope of ending what many refer to as one of the darkest periods in Kurdish history.

Since the previous elections in 2013, the Kurdish Region has been plagued with internal and external problems. Externally, problems began with the fight against ISIS which for them started in 2014 and lasted over three years, producing countless Kurdish casualties and martyrs. The fight against ISIS lead to a stagnation of the economy, as the region became an uncertain place to invest for national and international corporations. In addition to this, the economy of the Kurdish Regional Government (KRG), which is heavily dependent on oil export revenue, drastically suffered further in the 2014 when oil prices dropped.

Internally, within in the Kurdish Region of Iraq; clientelism, corruption, nepotism, partisan institutions, intellectual repression, un-democratic rule and consistent violations of the Iraqi Constitutional rights have created a discontent populace who have little faith in a prosperous future for Iraqi Kurdistan (Kurdish Region of Iraq), with the current two ruling parties.

Two-party partisan rule

Since the civil war that broke out between the Kurdish Democratic Party (KDP) and Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK) in 1994, Iraqi Kurdistan’s territory was split into two zones. KDP dominated the northern part and the PUK dominated the southern part. In 1998, Washington intervened to mediate a peace process, the two parties started to gradually reconcile their issues, in the process joining the US-led coalition against Saddam Hussein in 2003. Since 2003, these two family-based political parties have dominated through partisan politics for just under a decade. During that period, power was shared between the KDP and PUK in both Iraqi Kurdistan and Baghdad. This was later formalised through a strategic agreement in 2007, which was in essence an acknowledgement of power and wealth share in a two-party Iraqi Kurdistan.

In the Southern part of the Kurdish Region, the PUK would control the ministries of agriculture, education, interior, peshmerga, and police etc. In the Northern part of the Kurdish Region, the KDP would control the same institutions. The majority of the non-political class in the Kurdish Region are in disagreement with this partisan rule, because attaining a basic job in the region is only possible through being a member of, or having important contacts in one of the two ruling parties. Roles are often also given out based on nepotism, and has often been seen as counter-productive, with popular demand calling for a more meritocratic system.

However, when Nawshirwan Mustafa left the PUK in 2006 and later founded the Movement for Change (‘Gorran’) in 2009, the careful and meticulous two-party equilibrium began to face challenges. Just months after its formation, Gorran contested the 2009 KRG elections and received 23.75% of the votes. As of 2013, Gorran is officially the second largest party in Iraqi Kurdistan, ahead of the PUK. Professor Nicole Watts described Gorran as more than just a political party, resembling a think tank or NGO, with research institutes, election bureaus, sociologists and other individuals who are part of Gorran while working with other NGO’s. Since 2011, protests that have also become social movements and were inspired by Gorran have called for an end to partisan rule, equal distribution of opportunities, transparency in oil revenue, and a democratic Kurdish Region that is liberal and free both in the rights of the people and the economy. One of the major and publically supported demands from Gorran is a united KRG, without clientelism and without subordination to other nations such as Turkey and Iran.

Violations of Iraqi Constitutional rights

Iraq’s 2005 constitution protects freedom of speech. However, in the Kurdish Region, those who dissent, whether in print or in the street, are targeted with numerous cases of killing. Many journalists were killed for demanding an end to the corruption in the Kurdish Region, cases include Kawa Garmyani who was gunned down in front of his mother’s eyes and well-known journalist Sardasht Osman who was kidnapped from his University and found dead two days later.

Amnesty International called for investigations into the deaths of journalists by the KRG in 2011, and 2013. In 2015 it also requested that in addition to investigating deaths of journalists, armed political party militias should also be meticulously investigated. This was also the case in 2016 and 2017. The UN Human Rights office of the High Commission recorded unfair imprisonments and killings of journalists in their year-end reports of 2011, 2012, 2013 and 2014.

In the last decade, KRG security forces have violently attacked and killed many protesters demanding an end to corruption. In 2011 alone, ten people died in protests that lasted 62 days. Among them was 15-year-old Rezhwan Ali, who was shot in the head when security services fired live rounds into the protesting crowds. On February 17 2012, approximately 200 peaceful demonstrators and protesters were approached by civilian-clothed security services who violently attacked them with batons while KDP security forces watched without intervening. In 2015 and 2017, the security service opened fire on protesters again.

Closure of Parliament in 2015.

The democratic process is polluted and heavily ridiculed with interference by the two ruling parties, who abuse their security services and Peshmerga for personal gains. In 2015, the KDP used its personal security forces to obstruct its rivals from entering government buildings. Speaker of Parliament Yousif Mohammed, a member of the main rival opposition party Gorran, was prevented from entering the Kurdish Region’s capital city, Erbil, whilst other Gorran ministers were blocked from entering government buildings. The incident led to the region’s parliament being closed for nearly two years.

The referendum as a tool in distraction politics

Alongside all of the problems within the region, the KRG failed to pay civil service salaries in full since 2015, in the name of austerity measures. During this period KRG blamed Iraq’s central government for the ongoing wage crisis, accusing Baghdad of withholding the Kurdish region’s required 17% budget allocation. However, the Iraqi government accused the KRG of corruption, declaring that the autonomous region’s oil revenues should be more than sufficient to cover civil servant salaries. Baghdad confidently made it clear that they would even pay the outstanding civil salaries in return for taking control of the oil revenues in the region. The Iraqi prime minister, Haider al-Abadi, in echoing the wishes of the Kurdistan Region populace, demanded on numerous times that the KRG should release data on its finances, pointing out that central government shares its figures with the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Since 2015, the Kurdish Region’s civil servant salaries have not only been reduced, in addition to this; three months of salary in the year have also been withheld by the KRG.

Many in the region saw the referendum as a distraction attempt by an undemocratic, unconstitutional and unlawful KRG President at the time; Masoud Barzani. Barzani and the KRG had presented no post-referendum strategy economically, socially, politically or militarily. The timing of the referendum was seen as controversial as it came after a period of discontent with mass demands for a change in the two-party ruling establishment. The referendum was seen as an attempt in using the hopes and dreams for a Kurdish nation (wanting a Kurdish nation is almost synonymous to being Kurdish) to distract the population from the wage crisis, the illegalities of the region and to give some credibility back to a government that had lost all faith in the eyes of its people. Although the referendum result is promising for the future of a Kurdish state, the timing, the aftermath and the subsequent exposure of the KRG’s practises has created a climate where the establishment of a Kurdish state, although a right, remains almost impossible.

Voter confidence and election rigging

With just over 44.9% of Iraq having voted in the federal elections of May 12, of which only 20% voted from the Kurdish Region, voter confidence is at an all-time low in the new Iraq. In addition to this, controversial anomalies in the results caused protests in numerous cities including Kirkuk. There was initial speculation of voter fraud and Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi stated that a government investigation had shown serious violations in the election process, blaming the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC), with Parliament calling for a full manual re-count and for elections to be re-run. Many called for re-counts and further investigations, including Speaker of Parliament Salim al-Jabouri and Vice President Iyad Allawi. Immediately after this, a storage site housing over half of Baghdad’s ballot boxes from Iraq’s parliamentary election had caught fire.

In the Kurdish Region; Gorran, Kurdistan Islamic Group (Komal), and Coalition for Democracy and Justice (CDJ) had rejected the election results based on claims of rigging and fraud. With only 20% of the Kurdish Region voting in the May 12 Iraqi Parliamentary elections, and consistent claims of election rigging being raised, confidence in the democratic process of the Kurdish Region is at the lowest it has been in Post-Saddam Iraq.

Voters also feel that there is no incentive to vote, because if the democratically elected parliament make decisions that are against the interests of the two-ruling parties, then interventions will take place through their personal militias. As mentioned already, an example of this was when parliament was closed for almost two years, when opposition parties were supporting laws that would challenge the authority of the ruling elites.

On another token, the faith of the populace in veteran Barham Salih took a massive blow when the PUK announced him as their chosen candidate for the Iraqi President position in Baghdad. This came a year after he had resigned from the PUK to start the Coalition for Democracy and Justice (CDJ), referencing the corruption in the PUK and the KRG as his reasoning for leaving, stating that he would never go back to the PUK regardless of the money and positions he was offered. Having founded the CDJ almost immediately after leaving the PUK, many in the region had high hopes that his party could work with the other opposition parties to help fight corruption in KRG. However, Salih’s decision has cost him credibility, and ultimately caused distrust in the elites of the Kurdish Region.

Expectations

Elections in Iraq are difficult to predict, as historically there has been many surprises. However, in terms of theory, rhetoric, practice and support, the Kurdish Region’s masses are in strong support of the opposition party Gorran. It is possible that we could see a historic vote for the opposition parties, with the popular Gorran providing political, economic, and even military solutions to governance. With detailed plans in theory for decentralisation, adherence to the rule of law, privatisation of the economy and creating a genuine free market. The promise of a free market is important, as Gorran have made it clear that they oppose the current system where the PUK and KDP demand businesses pay a percentage of profits to them otherwise they will be shut down. Gorran aims to do this by unifying and nationalising (within Kurdistan), the Peshmerga, Asayish (police) and other security apparatus so they can only be used and deployed openly and on the orders of democratic decisions through parliament, as opposed to the request of the KDP and PUK. Since the protests in 2011, we have seen the KDP and PUK use their Peshmergas and private security apparatus to violate constitutional rights and freedoms in assembly, speech and press. Gorran’s trusted stance, strong support and the fact it is the only party in the Kurdish Region with logical and accepted long term plans, they are expected to do well in this election.

The KDP have retrogressed in policy, decisions, and popular support since the previous elections in 2013. The wage crisis, corruption claims, failed referendum, intellectual repression, violent curbing of protests, alongside the iron fist cruelty towards protestors and free speech has seen popular support decrease. However, in this election campaign, promises to provide better services, maintain a strong Kurdistan, create more jobs and provide equality in opportunities could help maintain the 38 seats they already hold.

On the same token, the Kurdish Region now has approximately 30 Turkish military bases, and whilst under the sanctification of the KDP, the Turkish forces have targeted the Kurdish PKK fighters, something that has been heavily condemned by the majority of the Kurdish populace. This has raised questions of what the KDP means by a strong Kurdistan, if Turkey is being allowed to settle its forces in Kurdish lands. Many say that the allowance of Turkey on Kurdish soil is strategic clientelism, as a revolution in the Kurdistan Region has been brewing since 2011, and Turkey has provided the KDP with security in exchange for being allowed to conduct business and promote its own nation security in the Kurdish Region. The economic problems that Turkey faces, has been alleviated by free trade allowances in the Kurdish markets and economy.

The PUK have a refreshing face at the forefront of their campaign in Qubad Talabani, who is head of the PUK list in the elections. The PUK have promised stability, more jobs, and better services in a more prosperous Kurdistan Region. The PUK are historically a conservative party, and have enjoyed popular support in the past. An improvement in the results of the Iraqi Parliamentary elections of May 12 has built momentum and hope within the party, and they are optimistic for these elections.

However, the decision to retreat from Kirkuk on October 16, 2017, by the PUK and KDP forces has fuelled more resentment towards the parties, in particular PUK who later established that they had an agreement with Baghdad. Kirkuk is seen as the ‘Jerusalem’ of Kurdistan by the Kurds, and when Iranian-backed Hashd al-Shaabi were called upon by Abadi to retake the city, many Kurdish Peshmergas were uninformed of the retreat and ended up fighting, as a result more Kurdish deaths and injuries occurred. The fact that the Peshmerga are used, or rather misused, as a political tool by the PUK has caused anger and antipathy in the Kurdish Region.

Dirty politics: KDP and PUK partisan system to secure votes?

The way votes have been secured is through an employment for votes scheme that both the PUK and KDP have informally adopted. This basically means that in return for votes and popular support – jobs, promotions, and money has been offered to citizens. Additionally, those who have voted for opposition parties have ended up being targeted and have lost their jobs in numerous historical cases. This may be a method for consistency and support for the two-ruling parties, given that they control the ministries in their respected regions.

Kurdistan has been in a crisis for a long time and these elections may be the last opportunity for diplomatic changes that address the demands of the Kurdish Region’s populace. However, this may be difficult given the fact that Iran and Turkey now play such a dominant role in the region. With Turkish military bases and on demand support from Iran, any uprisings may be dealt with violently, but it could turn into a prolonged ordeal as the cries and demands for justice are transforming into a stronger and more organised civic movement from the bottom up.

Bamo Nouri is a research associate at City, University of London.