Why the War in Syria is Escalating Again

The developments that will shape Syria for decades to come are unfolding, largely unnoticed by the Indian public. Since January 6, armed forces belonging to the Syrian Interim Government (SIG) led by interim president al-Shaara have been attacking the territories of the Democratic Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (DAANES).

The DAANES emerged amid the turmoil of the war in Syria since 2011 and has found great support worldwide due to its principles of grassroots democracy, women's freedom, pluralism and ecology. The country's Kurds in particular played a leading role in its establishment.

The latest attacks began in the northern Syrian city of Aleppo and quickly spread to areas east of the Euphrates river. Heavy fighting is now taking place around the northern Syrian cities of Kobane and Heseke. Over a year after Assad's fall, Syria is thus once again affected by a dangerous escalation of violence that could have been avoided.

Have efforts to establish a democratic Syria now failed?

Since March last year, the new rulers around al-Shaara and representatives of the DAANES have been negotiating a political integration on the basis of a new, democratic constitution. On March 10, both the sides agreed on a memorandum of understanding outlining an eight-point plan for a comprehensive process of political, economic and military integration of the north-east of the country.

Following this, dozens of rounds of talks have taken place under US mediation. During the last meeting on January 4, the participants were on the verge of signing a landmark agreement. However, this was prevented by the Syrian foreign minister after last-minute consultations with his contacts in Turkey. The attacks began shortly after.

In the months that followed, the SIG has declared several ceasefires, but has not adhered to a single one. A decree by al-Shaara regarding cultural rights for the Kurds also met with little approval due to the escalation of the war. Despite the ongoing fighting, representatives of the DAANES have repeatedly declared their willingness to hold talks with Damascus.

How has the population of north-eastern Syria reacted to the attacks?

Immediately after the attacks by the SIG troops spread to the areas east of the Euphrates, the DAANES declared a general mobilisation. Since then, tens of thousands of citizens in north-eastern Syria have taken up arms to defend their villages and towns. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) and the Women's Defence Units (YPJ) are playing the leading role in this defence.

Both have been the most important forces in the fight against the Islamic State (IS) since 2014. However, the reactions to the attacks now extend far beyond north-eastern Syria. Thousands of Kurds from Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Europe have arrived in the DAANES areas within a few days and are participating in the fight in the region. On January 20, the population of the Kurdish city of Nusaybin overcame the border fence, whereupon hundreds joined the defence forces on the Syrian side of the border.

Something similar had happened in 2014 when the Kurdish city of Kobane was surrounded by IS. Strong support from all parts of Kurdistan and the diaspora, together with hundreds of internationalist volunteers, ultimately enabled the victory over IS in the spring of 2015. Today, the Kurds of North and East Syria are once again determined to defend themselves and their democratic political achievements.

How does the new Syria look under the SIG?

Over the past year, the SIG and al-Shaara have lost the trust of large sections of the Syrian population, having carried out systematic massacres against the country's Alawites and Druze, many of whom now view the new rulers in Damascus with suspicion or outright hostility. Al-Shaara and many of the ministers and commanders around him are known for their past role in jihadist groups such as IS and al-Nusra.

The SIG is committed to building a strongly centralised Syria based on a homogeneous Sunni Arab identity. A one-sided transitional constitution, non-transparent elections that excluded the south and north-east of the country, and the repeated use of brutal force against the Syrian population have been met with widespread criticism at home and abroad since al-Shaara took power.

Why did the SIG decide to go to war?

Until now, al-Shaara had shied away from military escalation against the north-east of the country. However, this changed after a meeting between Syrian and Israeli representatives in Paris on January 5, which was also attended by the US and the Turkish foreign minister. Developments in Syria following this meeting show that the parties involved must have agreed on far-reaching points. The competing interests of Turkey and Israel in Syria are an open secret. In Paris, both the countries have now apparently agreed to divide Syria into zones of interest.

While the south falls under Israeli control, the north of the country appears to have been declared Turkey's sphere of influence. Accordingly, Turkey immediately used its influence on the SIG and al-Shaara to encourage them to wage war against the DAANES and the Kurdish population of the country. The Turkish Ministry of Defence officially declared its support a few days after the attacks began. Turkish drones have been supporting SIG troops ever since and have already carried out dozens of air strikes.

In addition, numerous divisions of the official SIG army are directly controlled by Turkey. Until a few months ago, these forces were part of the so-called Syrian National Army, which was established, trained and commanded by Turkey. The international silence and the lack of effective measures to end the attacks indicate the tacit consent of the United States, Israel and European countries.

What are the immediate consequences of the war in North and East Syria?

So far, IS has benefited most from the attacks by the SIG and Turkey. SIG troops have released nearly 2,000 IS fighters, including numerous foreigners, from prisons in the Deir ez-Zor and Shaddadi areas. Numerous videos show how they immediately armed themselves and joined the attacks against the Kurdish population. Thousands more IS fighters are being held in prisons north of Raqqa and in the city of Heseke.

The SIG has already declared its intention to release these IS prisoners there as well. Thousands of families of IS fighters, including many foreign IS supporters, managed to escape from al-Hol Camp on 20 January. After attacks by the SIG with tanks, the SDF and YPJ forces had to withdraw from there. US troops stationed nearby remained inactive despite repeated requests for support from the SDF and YPJ.

What implications does the war have for West Asia?

One of the key objectives of US policy in West Asia is to reign in Iran’s regional influence and enforce a more US-aligned policy on the country. Turkey pledged its support for this policy during recent meetings in Washington. In return, Turkey has demanded a green light for ethnic cleansing against the Kurds by using SIG, al-Nusra and IS as proxy forces. The war against the Kurds in Syria also poses a major risk to Iraq due to its long border with Syria.

The SIG and al-Nusra affiliates, as well as Turkey, are Sunni Muslims, while the majority of Iraq’s population is Shiite. It seems likely that the US and other powers will use religious tensions in order to weaken the Iranian influence in Iraq with the help of Sunni Muslim powers and proxy forces. Therefore, the plan to relocate 7,000 IS fighters who were imprisoned by the SDF in North and East Syria until now to Iraqi prisons, needs to be watched closely.

Turkey continues to see the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (KRI) as a historic mistake that needs to be undone. This is the main reason why all Kurdish political parties in the KRI are now actively supporting the DAANES and the Kurdish population there. The defense of the achievements in North and East Syria guarantees the protection of the KRI, thus making this a matter of national importance for all Kurds.

What does the future hold for Syria?

The SIG and al-Shaara appear determined to take North and East Syria by force and commit genocide against the Kurdish population there. They hope to destroy democratic achievements once and for all, paving the way for a Syria modelled on Taliban-ruled Afghanistan.

The Kurdish population of the country is well aware of this danger. They will neither give up their demand for a democratic political order for Syria, nor will they accept expulsion and genocide by jihadists and Turkey without a fight. The resistance of the Kurds will be determined and unyielding.

At the same time, they will remain open to talks with Damascus about a political solution. The past few days have shown that Kurds from Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Europe will participate in the defence of North and East Syria. Internationalist volunteers are also already on their way there. The fighting is therefore very likely to continue and intensify. Syria is thus facing a period of extreme instability that could lead to the final division of the country.

The resurgence of IS will not only destabilise Syria itself, but also its neighbouring countries such as Iraq, and will quickly become a threat to the whole of West Asia, as well as to Europe and South Asia.

If the international community is interested in a united, stable and democratic Syria, it will have to exert pressure on the SIG and al-Shaara immediately. Economic and diplomatic pressure can be used to persuade him to seriously seek dialogue with the DAANES. The DAANES has the institutional strength, democratic culture and military experience to build a democratic and inclusive Syria in which jihadist forces such as IS have no future.

Without international pressure, Syria will remain massively destabilised in the long term. If the resistance of the SDF and YPJ is broken, there is a risk of genocide against Syria's three million Kurds in full view of the international community.

There is a clear need for impartial international engagement to ensure peace, security and democracy in Syria. A crucial and urgent step would be to convene a peace conference for Syria under the international auspices of the UN. The Kurdish people would welcome it if India considers taking responsibility for such an important initiative.

Nilüfer Koç is a member of the Executive Council of the Kurdistan National Congress (KNK).

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