The attack on the Saudi crude-processing installation last week is also being considered as an assault on American credibility in the Middle East. But the instigators of this attack (either Iranians, Houthis or a third country) are quite aware of the Carter Doctrine formulated on January 23, 1980, after the invasion of Afghanistan by the Soviet troops. According to this doctrine: “An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force.”
The doctrine was explicitly aimed at Soviet designs on the Persian Gulf. However, the doctrine clearly defined the Persian Gulf as a vital US national interest related to the normal functioning of the global economy. If the Carter Doctrine still holds today, the US along with its NATO allies needs to ensure its Arab allies in the region that it will be able to guarantee the stability of the region to protect the world economy.
However, this is a tricky task, which is easier said than done. Undoubtedly, the Pentagon analysts were surprised by the high precision of the attack against the two oil facilities in Saudi Arabia. The satellite images show damages to oil/gas infrastructure at Abqaiq are not only from drones, but also from missiles.
In that case, Houthis could certainly not have done the attack alone. These were, most probably, cruise missiles of the Quds-1 type which are fabricated in Iran. Twenty-two weapons were fired in all, of which 19 hit their targets with precision. One way or another, this attack was not only aimed at Saudis because of their participation in the war in Yemen, but it was a warning to all those countries who have an interest in the future of the oil fields in the Middle East and are supporting the American sanctions against Iran.
But the central question is: why would Iran attack Saudi oil installations while its economy is suffering daily from the American “maximum pressure”? Does the Iranian regime intend to provoke the US and its allies in the Persian Gulf and get them involved in a zero-sum game war which will blow up the global economy?
The answer is simple: to understand Iranian military operations, one needs to think like the Iranian Revolutionary Guards. What Javad Zarif, the Iranian foreign minister, or President Rouhani say in the front of the world TV cameras is not exactly what is happening behind the scenes in Tehran.
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The Iranian Revolutionary Guards are cornered by the economic pressures and thus defensive. They know that they cannot win a war against the US, and its partners, but they need support from the Iranian population, among whom they are not popular. Let us not forget that the Iranian revolutionary guards are notorious for their internal authoritarianism and appalling human rights record.
However, with the US sanctions strangling the Iranian economy, the Iranian population is also becoming more anti-American. Actually, the economic war with Iran is very much anti-humanitarian because it targets not only food but also medicine. Despite the humanitarian “exemptions” to the sanctions, as it is underlined by Washington, the data shows that the American export of an average of $26 million of pharmaceutical products to Iran annually during the Barack Obama has dropped to $8.6 million a year in the last two years under the sanctions of Trump administration. The Trump administration has also made it more difficult for European countries to export medicine to Iran.
Swiss pharmaceutical exports to Iran fell 30% from $240 million in 2017 to $167 million last year. Similarly, French pharmaceutical exports to Iran fell 25% from $218 million to $164 million last year. So, what may seem like sanitised financial sanctions are truly much more. Iranian society is feeling the economic war against the Islamic regime with all its guts.
The Iranian regime is very conscious of the economic ticking bomb in its backyard. Maybe that is why the more the US puts pressure on Iran, the more the strategies pursued by Tehran become riskier, simply because the Iranian authorities are desperate and they feel that they have nothing to lose.
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The attacks on Saudi Arabian oil facilities at Abqaiq exemplify the risks that the Iranian regime is ready to take to demonstrate that they can be a serious threat to the strategic interests of the US and Europe in the region. Iran is reinforcing partnership with China for economic relief.
According to news reports, the first investments will take place in the first five years, with $280 billion being injected into the Iranian petrochemicals sectors and $120 billion into transportation and manufacturing infrastructure. In addition, China is supposed to increase its imports of Iranian oil, which, accordingly, will be at discounted rates. But Iran’s economic and security dependency will not solve the bigger geostrategic problem of the Iranian regime.
The Iranian regime will continue to be seen as a threat to international security and stability. However, the strategic outlook inside Iran continues to consider the Strait of Hormuz and the Iranian regime with it as a point of dispute and controversy in the US-China and US-Russia rivalries.
Maybe that is why, the de-escalation of tensions and the end of hostilities between Iran and the US are not for tomorrow, although both Iran and the US seem to be rowing back from a possible confrontation. Ultimately, there are no exit strategies which could fit nicely within the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s or Trump’s parameters.
Ramin Jahanbegloo is the director of the Mahatma Gandhi Centre for Peace at Jindal Global University.
