The majority of complaints of discrepancies, misbehaviour and administrative pressure on voters were recorded in Sambhal and Budaun, which have substantial populations of Muslim voters.

A video emerged recently of some men, allegedly BJP workers, cleaning a temple in Kannauj after Akhilesh Yadav had visited it. At a time when caste tensions between Thakurs and Yadavs escalating, episodes such as these could influence voting in Kannauj on May 13.

The Congress seems to have abandoned the ‘Mahila Hoon, Lad Sakti Hoon’ slogan too – out of the 17 candidates declared by the party in the state, only one is a woman.

The political atmosphere and equations have changed in Amethi and Rae Bareli ever since the Modi government came to power at the Centre and the BJP won consecutive majorities in the state.

Usually critical of dynasty in other parties, the BJP has been unable and unwilling to step away from strongman MP Brij Bhushan. It has given his son, Karan, a ticket from Kaiserganj. Just weeks ago, he snubbed journalists, “Who is dropping my name? Will you…?”

The BJP’s softening stand towards Yadavs, who are estimated to be around 9-10% of the state’s population, seems to be a reaction to the main Opposition Samajwadi Party’s increased outreach among the non-Yadav OBCs this election.

The 2014 elections were held in the wake of sharp communal polarisation triggered by the Muzaffarnagar riots. In 2019, BJP banked on the Pulwama attack and the Balakot airstrike. This year, the seeds of hatred sown in the past are doing their job.

The BJP's communal polarisation here could backfire, for the constituency, with a large Muslim population, recorded the highest voter turnout in Uttar Pradesh.   

Across Meerut, the SP’s candidate selection has galvanised a major section of the Jatav community, especially those who want to change the government. Meanwhile, the BJP candidate's inaccessible nature, distant campaigning style and lack of experience in politics have prevented a breakthrough.

The INDIA bloc’s caste-wise distribution of candidates will not quite follow the ‘Pichda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak’ formula that Akhilesh Yadav promised – but will be a bold political manoeuvre where for the first time in a decade, the BJP will be on the backfoot.

Modi's address in Amroha yesterday demonstrated how he tries to rake up religious sentiments, belying claims by the BJP that it was seeking votes from people on the basis of unprecedented development work and on the implementation of welfare schemes.

For instance, Imran Masood, the Congress candidate in Saharanpur, will try his luck for the third time as a nominee of the SP-Congress INDIA bloc. There's a saying that he is seen as an approachable and secular leader, but on voting day, he is often reduced to being a Muslim.

One thing is clear: Muzaffarnagar will be a good test of the compatibility between the RLD and BJP after a decade of antagonism. Without the support of the RLD old-timers, the BJP might find it hard to win here.

On the ground, Rajput resentment seems to be the result of simmering discontent over political representation and the BJP’s focus on increasing its support base among the other dominant landed communities.

Iqra Hasan (29), Shreya Verma (31), Priya Saroj (25) and Pushpendra Saroj (25) have thrown their hats in the ring from Kairana, Gonda, Machhlishahr and Kaushambi respectively.

A sudden wave of protest meetings held in west Uttar Pradesh's Saharanpur, Muzaffarnagar and Meerut by leaders of the dominant, landed community has forced the BJP to address their question and try to gloss over the divisions in its electoral caste rainbow by ramping up the Hindutva card and sentiments of nationalism.

Other than the use of Ram in his campaign, Govil has attracted negative attention for his inability to outline the issues he plans to address in his constituency.

The Wire analysed 24 Lok Sabha seats in west UP and found that the main Opposition alliance – the Congress and the Samajwadi Party – has reduced the share of Muslim and OBC candidates but increased the number of tickets for Hindu “upper castes” and Dalits, if we compare the figures with the Opposition’s Mahagathbandhan in 2019.

The MP seat was poised for a three-way contest, between the BJP, the INDIA-bloc and the Bahujan Samaj Party, till Meera Deepak Yadav’s nomination was rejected on April 5.

A key seat where the drama played out was Meerut, won by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on seven out of nine occasions in the last 33 years. However, the social calculus here makes the constituency one up for grabs.