As Naidu, Nitish Hold Key to Third Term, a Look at NDA's 'Use, Weaken, Throw' Strategy for Allies

New Delhi: On June 5 evening, all eyes will be on two regional leaders landing in the National Capital – Chandrababu Naidu, the chief minister-in-waiting of Andhra Pradesh and the top leader of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), and the Bihar chief minister and Janata Dal (United) leader Nitish Kumar.

Both of them will be in New Delhi to take part in a meeting of all the partners of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to be held later this evening.

The confirmation of Naidu and Kumar’s presence at the NDA meeting is certainly helping Narendra Modi, Amit Shah, and his party’s supporters to keep up the hope of forming at least an NDA government at the Centre in the next few days with Modi as the prime minister. While awaiting the hour, preparations are underway at the Rashtrapati Bhawan for the swearing-in ceremony. Modi has put in his papers as the sitting prime minister and is awaiting the call from the President to form the next government.

Still, Modi-Shah’s fingers must be crossed at the moment, hoping that none of the two alliance partners who are holding the key to another term for them at the Centre, demand a price at the last minute that can be a tad difficult to adhere to. Even a demand that Amit Shah shall not be the Union home minister, a rumour making the rounds in Delhi already, can break the ‘jugalbandi’ that had allowed them to be at their dictatorial best thus far.

Simultaneous to the NDA meeting, the INDIA bloc leaders are also holding a meeting in New Delhi this evening. Whether Naidu and Kumar will pay a visit to them too is to be seen, though at the moment, the NDA bandwagon seems without a chink. Naidu has categorically told reporters before getting on to the plane to Delhi that he is coming to the city only to attend the NDA meeting.

In the next couple of hours, which side of the political divide do these two regional entities stand would be clear, after they weigh a range of pros and cons, of course. In the meantime, perhaps time is right for a lowdown on how the Modi-era Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) had employed a set of strategies frequently to typically weaken their NDA partners whom they had, at some point, needed desperately to hold on to power. If their earlier experience with Modi-Shah is any proof, they do know that there is absolutely no clause in that BJP rulebook for NDA allies that it would not apply to the TDP and the JD(U).

‘Use, weaken, and throw’

Naidu must particularly be wary of this tactic of the Modi-Shah-led BJP. So far, it has been applied on a range of NDA partners with devastating results on a ‘friendly’ party. It typically begins by the BJP piggybacking on an ally to enter a state/region where it doesn’t have much electoral heft but has the ambition for it.

In the course of time, its tent grows, so much so that leaders from the ally party begins to shift to the BJP along with its voters. The top leader may worry but Modi-Shah tells him not to. Things are still ‘friendly’.

By and by, you will see BJP’s vote share grow in the state before it begins to turn into seats. The ally, thus, becomes the competitor in the next election.

The continued stealing of votes and leaders from the ‘friendly’ party weaken it over time, before it agrees to become either a puppet in the hands of Modi-Shah, or rebel and leave, but only to face the danger of its further marginalisation and split/s. The gobbler gradually grabs the throne that once belonged to the ally.

Naidu must particularly remember this strategy because Andhra Pradesh is where the BJP would like to enter to expand its footprint in the South.

A look at the trajectory of regional entities like the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), Shiv Sena, Naga People’s Front (NPF), since the time they allied with the Modi-era BJP can help understand the strategy better. These regional parties once ruled their respective states – Assam, Maharashtra, Nagaland.

Since 2016, the time AGP famously allied with the BJP in Assam to topple the three-time Congress government, its vote share is on a nose-dive in the state while BJP’s is on an upward curve. The party, in spite of being in power, has not been able to expand its base or gain lost grounds.

Worse, like it snatched the Marathi Manoos agenda of the Shiv Sena to lace it with Hindutva and thereby spread itself in Maharashtra, the Modi-Shah BJP has done so too with the AGP’s indigenous-first agenda. The party’s slogan, Joi Ai Asom (Long Live Assam), has been wedded to BJP’s Jai Shri Ram while the ally looked on. AGP today has been reduced to a veritable puppet in the hands of the BJP, solely dependent on it to not only fund it during an election but also leave at least one constituency for it to send an MP to Parliament, like the BJP did this time for Barpeta. AGP should be happy within that limited space. It can no more dream of grabbing power in the state. A large chunk of its voters have already moved to the BJP. No need to underline who benefited from that alliance the most.

The story of NPF, the oldest ally of the BJP in the Northeast, is not quite different. NPF gave the BJP a much-needed foothold in Nagaland. Gradually, the NPF government was weakened, and thereby split into two to form a new entity, the Nationalist Democratic Front of Nagaland (NDPP), which readily aligned with the BJP to grab power in that Christian-majority state. In the last five to six years, the strategy has delivered. NPF has been reduced to a dying entity, further from power like never before, while the BJP is the new power centre in Nagaland. A lone MP that it could send till now from Manipur (Outer Manipur) has gone out of its hands too in these elections. The friendship with the BJP is a factor why the party is on ventilator.

Also read: BJP Loses Ground in North-East: Key Takeaways From 2024 Lok Sabha Election Results

Ask Pawan Chamling of the Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF) if the application of a similar strategy by Modi-Shah to cut his party into size had not helped to write an obituary for his party? The Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM) is the new ally of the BJP in that state, born out of the SDF, like NDPP was from NPF. In the 2024 state polls, SDF, which ruled the state for five terms, has been wiped out. SKM, however, must start to worry as the BJP’s vote share is beginning to grow in that state. Smaller parties in Goa are a victim of this use and throw strategy too. In Tripura, the BJP has already moved on from Indigenous Tribal Front of Tripura (ITFT) to Tipra Mocha. The only non-beneficiary of that BJP-ITFT alliance is ITFT.

The poll results from Odisha can also further firm up the first point I am making here. BJP, the smaller ally, in the course of time, has become the giant in that state to be able to gobble up the BJD’s votes, and topple its government. This, in spite of the BJD coming to the aid of the party when needed, to pass some of the most unpopular bills in Parliament.

Regional parties like YSR Congress also tried playing the ‘neutral’ card like BJD had, though acts like voting against the no-confidence motion moved by the Opposition against the Modi government. It hoped such an act could help it enter into an alliance with the BJP. That move quite didn’t quite deliver though. Its nemesis, TDP’s Naidu, who not long ago was openly at loggerheads with Modi-Shah, is now the new friend of the BJP in Andhra Pradesh.

Anyway, the results of these general elections have only held up that parties that didn’t align with the INDIA bloc, be it the BJD, the YSRCP,  also the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS), the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP, another use and throw case) etc. have only fared extremely badly.

By the way, Uddhav-led Shiv Sena is a victim of this ‘use, diminish and throw’ strategy of the BJP too but it chose to rebel against it, and has paid a heavy price for it too, including a split. But if the June 4 results are any indication, the mother party is giving a fight to save whatever possible from the onslaught of the Modi-era BJP.

Divide and Rule 

This is another strategy of the Modi-Shah-led BJP, applied on some of its NDA allies. It was particularly unrolled on the AIADMK, active in Tamil Nadu, a state BJP has been eyeing for some time now. However, the party leaders seemed to have seen through it, and walked out on the BJP at least for the time being. Else, by now, it could have graduated to the ‘use, diminish and throw’ strategy mentioned above.

The treatment meted out to the National Congress Party (NCP), the Uddhav faction of Shiv Sena, the NPF, etc. by Modi-Shah can fall in this divide and rule category too. With Sharad Pawar and Uddhav Thackeray not bowing down to the degree they had wanted, rebellion within the parties were fanned, so much so that even their poll symbols were snatched. The ageing Maratha stalwart, though, has shown the Gujarati duo in these general elections that the game couldn’t decimate them altogether.

Also read: Why Maharashtra Signals a Decline of the Modi-Shah Brand of Politics

Ally’s concern can be ignored, thereby its growth can be restricted

This is a dangerous strategy. It can snuff the life out of a regional entity rather quickly by forcing it to move away from its core supporters. In recent times, its victims have been NDA partners like the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD) and Kuki People’s Alliance (KPA). Both are now disgruntled non-NDA partners but can’t seem to do anything more than walking out of the alliance.

This strategy was applied on the AGP too to reduce its political heft further. For instance, it was left to deal on its own when the Modi government had decided to pass the Citizenship Amendment Bill (CAB) in Parliament in 2019. The TDP’s interest, special status of the Centre to Andhra Pradesh, was not met either, leading Naidu to walk out on the NDA some time ago. This time around, if rumours are to be believed, Naidu’s hands are tied because of the cases staring at him; he was already sent to jail following raids by central agencies.

This strategy can check the personal ambition of an NDA leader too? The unsaid rule in the NDA is, no other leader can dream bigger than Modi. Who knows it better than Nitish Kumar? He had left the NDA once because of his personal ambitions. This time around, even if he chooses to continue with NDA, it would be at the cost of that dream.

In the next few days, this strategy of the BJP should see a ready example of what happens when used on an NDA leader who also harbours ambitions that can collide with that of Modi’s.