The 2024 Lok Sabha elections delivered a shocking result that few pundits predicted – Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party failed to secure a majority. After nearly a decade of dominance at the national level, the party that has been virtually synonymous with Modi found itself in a difficult position of needing to form a coalition government. How did this happen? An examination of the factors reveals missteps by the BJP as well as the potent political forces that coalesced against them.
Some BJP supporters have tried to blame the Hindu voters of Uttar Pradesh for the defeat. However, that is an overly simplistic and flawed take. UP has long been a crucial battleground state with a diverse and politically savvy electorate that understands the real issues. Therefore, blaming the state or any religious group is misguided and ignores the reality on the ground.
The truth is that Modi and the BJP made a series of strategic errors that alienated large swathes of the electorate over the past several years. What started as subtle divisive rhetoric eventually turned into overtly polarising language from the BJP leadership. Modi himself went from sending “dog whistles” about minority communities to making blunt statements that turned off many moderate voters looking for an inclusive vision.
Beyond just rhetoric, Modi’s policies and governing style bred resentment among the burgeoning middle class in India’s cities and suburbs. While the BJP remained popular among the business elite and ultra-wealthy, the middle class felt the squeeze from years of high inflation, stagnant wages, and lack of economic opportunity. Unemployment numbers remained stubbornly high even as the wealth of the Adani empire and other major corporate houses ballooned.
There was a sense that Modi’s policies enriched the already wealthy while doing little for the aspirations of the middle class. The pain of demonetisation and the pandemic’s harsh economic toll was still fresh in voters’ minds. The perception took hold that Modi governed more for the corporates than the common person, despite his promises.
Meanwhile, the heavy-handed tactics used against opposition voices bred a backlash among the educated class and civil society. The overreach of government agencies like the Enforcement Directorate in going after opposition politicians reeked of political vendettas in the eyes of many. The co-opting of mainstream media, celebrities, and other influencers turned them into being seen as puppets and eroded public trust. A broad anti-incumbency sentiment took root.
On the campaign trail, Modi and the BJP doubled down on Hindu nationalist rhetoric and overt religious appeals, believing their base of Hindu voters would turn out en masse as they had before. But this strategy backfired as it turned off centrist Hindus looking for governance on bread-and-butter issues rather than divisive identity politics.
The BJP also underestimated the power of the backlash from women and youth in states like Manipur where violence and unrest had taken hold due to governance failures. The dramatic protests of India’s top women wrestlers over sexual harassment allegations embodied the rage felt by many at the status quo.
In the end, Modi’s inflated self-belief and hubris proved to be his undoing. The 56-inch chest puffed out wider and wider until it became a liability reeking of arrogance. Modi’s team committed the cardinal sin of believing their own hype and inevitably grew out of touch with the lived realities of many Indians.
Other factors, of course, contributed as well, including the Adani matter that dominated headlines and disrupted economic narratives. But ultimately, the shortcomings and unforced errors of Modi and the BJP created a perfect storm that the opposition capitalised upon.
The Opposition was able to unite behind a message of inclusive development, economic opportunity, respect for institutions, and pluralism. They recognised the thirst for change and promised a course correction rather than radical overhaul. Crucially, they managed to fight toe-to-toe with the formidable election machine of the BJP instead of being cowed by it.
So while BJP supporters engaged in scapegoating Hindu or UP voters, the reality is that Modi has only himself to blame for failing to read the moment and adapt his governance approach and rhetoric to address the evolving hopes and concerns of the Indian electorate.
The loss is deeply humbling for a politician who had grown accustomed to sweeping victories and fawning adulation from the media and corporate class. Modi must now decide whether to embrace a more inclusive, unifying approach in the hope of regaining his once unstoppable momentum, or to double down on the policies and rhetoric that led to this striking rebuke at the polls.
Either way, Indian democracy has reaffirmed its vibrance and the people’s ability to course-correct when necessary. No force, not even Modi’s vaunted election juggernaut, can be taken for granted by any political party or leader. The 2024 elections were a powerful reminder that in India, the people are the real shakti.
Sushiila Ttiwari is the Managing Director of 7Qube, and D. Samarender Reddy is the Director of 7Qube.
