Ranchi (Jharkhand)/Patna (Bihar): After five rounds of polling, it is clear that the 2024 Lok Sabha election lacks a central national theme. Rather, one can say that there is a multiplicity of national and regional concerns at play. But none singularly dominates the public discourse on the ground.
A large number of constituencies in Bihar and Jharkhand where I travelled recently are definite cases in point.
In Chapra, Jehanabad, Vaishali and Nalanda, anger against the sitting Bharata Janata Party (BJP) or Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) candidates is the primary factor that is enthusing people across castes and communities. While non-performance, under-performance and absenteeism of the incumbent MPs appeared to be driving them against the BJP, the widespread perception that Narendra Modi has a better shot at power is also holding them back.
However, even in those cases where people preferred the BJP over any other party, their discussions remained around widespread unemployment and non-fulfilment of vacancies, price rise, poor agrarian infrastructure against the backdrop of huge diversion of funds towards highways, flyovers and other construction projects.
A looming urban-rural divide
There is widespread public sentiment that much of the funds spent on ‘development’ was for the benefit of urban dwellers much more than their rural counterparts. Resultantly, the resentment against the BJP-led government is much higher in villages than in urban pockets in these parts.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
The strong urban-rural divide reflected in multifarious ways. Residents of urban pockets complained about poor sewerage, inadequate higher education, lack of respectable jobs and industrial growth, and declining small and medium sector businesses. Most said that the Narendra Modi government has contributed little to Bihar and Jharkhand, even as they believe that most of Modi’s promises over the last 10 years have remained unfulfilled.
Yet, a large majority of them prefer Modi over opposition leaders as they believe that the BJP has managed to maintain a peaceful order, even as it barely improved their standard of living. They also think that the security apparatus functions better under the BJP-led governments than others, while the BJP is perceived as fair in distributing resources as opposed to other regimes where one or other caste groups allegedly cornered most state contracts.
The people in villages, however, have a long list of problems like poor access to drinking water, distress migration, poor wages and labour exploitation, price rise of essential commodities, ramshackle primary education and health care systems, and rampant caste discrimination. Amidst such cynicism, Modi’s free ration scheme has been a saviour, but many in the villages are beginning to feel the inadequacy of such a scheme when their incomes have either been stagnant or don’t match inflation. Many also complained of their incomes actually coming down.
Rampant unemployment and job losses during the Modi years are seen as the root causes of all problems.
For Muslims of Bihar and Jharkhand, the BJP represents a party that promotes hate and evokes a sense of unsafe existence and fear, quite contrary to how the Hindus feel good about the security apparatus under BJP governments.
While the opposition forces have drawn considerable support in rural areas, they have barely managed to breach the BJP’s urban strongholds.
Dalits, poor OBCs and the question of reservation
Although Dalits in these states have traditionally voted against their immediate feudal castes – in some villages against landed Bhumihars or Rajputs and in some against aggressive Yadavs – the opposition message that reservation for Dalits may be in danger if the Modi government crosses the 400 mark in the Lok Sabha has percolated deep into the community. The educated youth in the community definitely believe so, but so do a large section of daily wage and agricultural labourers, washermen and sanitation workers.
And that has been a cause of worry for the BJP, which has labelled them “laabarthis” and was banking on their votes.
My experiences with a large section of Extremely Backward Classes in Bihar was also similar. Considered to be chief minister Nitish Kumar’s vote bank, many among the EBCs felt disappointed and resentful of the Modi government for allegedly ruining the work environment for them, while also conspiring to remove caste-based reservations.
Nitish Kumar in free fall
A sense of insecurity has crept in among the EBCs. Much of it appears to be triggered by Nitish Kumar’s decline in the political sphere. While ‘upper caste’ groups and dominant OBC Yadavs were militantly critical of Nitish and his policies that have allegedly bled their incomes, the EBCs and Dalits, too, disapproved of his frequent switches from one political camp to another.
Moreover, a constant complaint against his government among these communities was that his policy of prohibition has victimised only the poor who, they say, have become targets of arrests and police extortion, while ‘English’ liquor is being sold openly in the grey market and consumed by the rich with impunity.
While most believe that Nitish brought about radical changes in the social make-up and given a voice to people at the margins, they also seem to think that his days were over.
Residents of Vaishali. Photo: Ajoy Ashirwad Mahaprashasta
Nitish’s EBC and Mahadalit support is surely fraying at the edges. Nitish’s failure to anoint his successor has further created a leadership vacuum in these communities. While some looked towards the RJD, many others seemed to move their loyalty to the BJP, especially in seats like Vaishali and Patna Sahib where BJP has traditionally contested as JD(U)’s ally.
In such a scenario, the JD(U) appeared to be facing much more anti-incumbency heat than its ally BJP, signalling a regional colour that the Lok Sabha polls in Bihar had assumed.
The Adivasi and the Kurmi question in Jharkhand
Unlike Bihar where it had a range of political strategies, the BJP has historically relied almost entirely on pitting Hindus against Muslims and Adivasis against Christian missionaries to expand itself in Jharkhand. Aggressive processions by Sangh parivar groups during Hindu festivals were common in Jharkhand even in the 1970s, while its anti-Christian missionary campaign is even older. The BJP used its Hindutva programmes to break the vibrant Left movement among industrial workers and Adivasi resistance movements quite successfully over the last four decades.
Over the last decade, the BJP used its strength to mobilise the OBC Kurmis, or Mahato community, which form over 30% of the state’s population. The support of Kurmis has helped it register massive wins in Lok Sabha polls in 2014 and 2019.
However, in recent times, both Adivasis and Mahatos have distanced themselves from the BJP; the 2024 Lok Sabha campaign makes the trend clearer than ever before.
Adivasis were full of complaints against the Modi government, highlighting BJP MPs’ failures in developing tribal pockets like Singhbhum, Khunti, Lohardaga and Dumka. But at the heart of their anger is the perception that the saffron party is making attempts to alienate them from their ancestral land. The Raghubar Das government’s attempts to amend the CNT/SPT Act that protected Adivasi land from any commercialisation, simultaneous decision to create a land bank in sixth schedule areas, and its plan to allocate mining and other such industrial activities in tribal pockets to corporate groups had ticked the Adivasi communities off. Since they constitute almost 27% of the state’s population, the decisions cost the BJP its government in Jharkhand.
That anger is palpable even in the run-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. The saffron party has fielded some prominent Adivasi leaders like Geeta Koda, Arjun Munda and Sita Soren in the electoral fray by engineering defections in the opposition camp, hoping that it may be able to diffuse the tension in the community at least momentarily.
A hoarding featuring Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Hajipur. Photo: Ajoy Ashirwad Mahaprashasta
The Kurmis, on the other hand, felt orphaned by the BJP. The prime minister and other saffron leaders swung the Kurmi votes in the BJP’s favour by promising that their government will fulfil their demand of being included in Scheduled Tribes. Many regional parties, including BJP ally the All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU) led by Sudesh Mahato, have mushroomed among Kurmis on this singular demand.
Both Adivasis and Kurmis, along with some regional Left parties, were at the forefront of the movement for a separate Jharkhand state. They were comrades-in-arms but they fell out after the state’s formation in 2000, as Kurmis believe that Adivasis in Jharkhand were given disproportionate preference in politics and representation in the new state.
The BJP exploited the contradiction and managed to swing Kurmis in its favour. But ahead of the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, a large section of Kurmis felt betrayed. While some strongly believed that Modi reneged on his promise, many others felt that the decision to include them in ST category was being unnecessarily delayed by the Centre because of electoral considerations.
As a result, Kurmis also swayed towards the Congress in many constituencies, although not so much towards its ally the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha. In many other seats like Giridih, Kurmis preferred the independent Kurmi leader like Jairam Mahato who still evokes the idea of a united Jharkhandi identity.
The most important caste calculus
The lack of a singular theme in both these states and the presence of diverse political interests has compelled the voters to place their local concerns prominently. Caste-based voting preferences became apparent in people’s responses in such a complex scenario. Those who preferred the BJP listed out Modi’s welfare schemes, Hindutva, national security, India’s improved global standing, those who were on the opposition’s side spoke about rising unemployment, price rise, Modi’s ‘lies’ and BJP’s corruption, opposition’s targeting and related concerns.
Although caste equations have mattered as one of the most significant factors in elections, Modi’s popularity appeared to be breaching those neat patterns. However, 10 years of his prime ministership and non-fulfilment of many promises after making people dream much bigger than before has spoiled both his and the BJP’s sheen.
These caste and community-based equations have undergone multiple changes over the years, depending on the churning within the old and new feudal orders. However, the 2024 Lok Sabha polls in Bihar and Jharkhand made it apparent that these dynamics may be at the brink of a new order, a rearrangement that has been triggered by political factors like Nitish’s unpopularity, Tejashwi Yadav’s ascendance, Hemant Soren’s arrest and the rise of his wife Kalpana Soren, strong anti-incumbency sentiment against BJP MPs, a 10-year fatigue with the Modi government and, more importantly, a deepening political vacuum in these states as older leaders are on the verge of retiring.
The BJP may still emerge at the top, given its dominance in urban pockets, but it looks unlikely to repeat its near-100% strike rate in 2019 as NDA’s vote share is likely to take a big beating.
That BJP’s slide has begun, is writ large in these parts of India. RJD and JMM, on the other hand, have shown that they are ready for a bigger battle.
