As the BJP Eyes Power In West Bengal, a Look at the Shifting Sands of the State's Politics

The BJP's newly appointed West Bengal state president, Samik Bhattacharya, has reignited the debate over a possible Ram-Bam (‘BJP-Left’, bam means left in Bengali) coalition. Upon assuming leadership of the party’s state unit, Bhattacharya appealed for the Left’s support in dethroning Mamata Banerjee’s government. He also struck a chord with the political imagination of the public by asserting that if the BJP comes to power it will govern from the iconic Writers' Building – not Nabanna.

This marks a noticeable departure from the party’s earlier strategy of consolidating Hindu votes. However, a key question remains unanswered: Is the BJP in any position to capture power in the state? And what is the political backdrop – the saffron party's stance on minorities, its own organisational troubles and how voter bases may be shifting in Bengal – against which the run-up to 2026 is taking place?

The BJP has been striving for years to unseat the Trinamool Congress (TMC) government. Over the past 14 years of TMC rule, the BJP has grown significantly in the state, successfully filling the political vacuum left by the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPI(M)), even though it still lacks the robust cadre base that the Left once commanded.

After changing three state presidents without substantial results, the party has turned to a veteran leader – Bhattacharya – to steady the ship.

Bhattacharya, however, inherits a host of challenges. From internal strife between old and new factions to a relatively weak ground-level organisation, he faces an uphill task in re-energising the party's base.

How might the BJP be placed for 2026?

West Bengal has seen a string of controversies over the past few years – from the cash recovery at the residence of Arpita Mukherjee (an aide of former minister Partha Chatterjee), to the SSC job scam and most recently the rape and murder of an on-duty doctor at the R.G. Kar Medical College.

Public outrage has spilled onto the streets, with protests often cutting across socio-economic groups. The same was seen during the Kasba Law College rape incident where a TMC leader is accused of raping a student of the institute inside the college premises. The government’s response has only deepened the discontent.

Yet, despite these flashpoints, the BJP has failed to convert public anger into sustained political momentum.

Most of the BJP's protests have been symbolic, often ending in arrests and routine bail-outs. Its presence in such movements has paled in comparison to the visibility of the Left, particularly its student and youth wings.

Speaking to The Wire, CPI(M) state committee member and Students' Federation of India general secretary Srijan Bhattacharya, as well as TMC spokesperson and former Rajya Sabha MP Kunal Ghosh, said the BJP still lacks sufficient organisational strength to stake a claim to power in next year's assembly elections.

Ghosh suggested that recent incidents, mostly in BJP-ruled states, of Bengali-speaking migrants being detained and in some cases deported would also push the saffron party behind.

Even BJP leader and Kolkata municipal councillor Sajal Ghosh acknowledged the party’s organisational shortcomings, pointing out that the TMC's rise in 2011 and the CPI(M)'s victory in 1977 had occurred “when their respective cadre bases were not yet formidable”.

Still, Srijan Bhattacharya conceded that the BJP has made some progress in West Bengal's politics. “The BJP has some voter base in West Bengal. They have tried to strengthen their momentum in Bengal [using] the incidents [in] Bangladesh, Pahalgam and Murshidabad. They are trying to polarise Hindu votes, but they do not have the organisational strength that can boost the party into scoring a home run.”

Iman Kalyan Lahiri, a professor at Jadavpur University's international relations department, argued that the BJP at any rate will need more planks than just religion and undocumented immigration to win an election in West Bengal, much of which he noted is agrarian.

Saffron party's minority outreach a tightrope act

The BJP believes there is growing anti-incumbency in Bengal and views itself as the only viable alternative to the TMC. Its leadership argues that opposition votes going to the CPI(M) or Congress inadvertently help the TMC.

The BJP is now focusing more on jobs, governance and presenting a developmental vision.

One intriguing shift is in its messaging towards minority communities. Samik Bhattacharya has made statements appealing to Muslim voters asserting that the BJP is not against Muslims. At the same time he has also said that even if Muslims do not vote for his party, its ‘development will reach their homes’ as well.

This ambiguous approach reflects the party’s dilemma – how to reach out to minorities without alienating its core Hindu nationalist base.

Lahiri said that Samik Bhattacharya's approach may not have its intended effect given that others in the state BJP have not adopted a similar stance as him. “The BJP has to decide what it as a party is going to propagate,” he said. The TMC's Kunal Ghosh too noted the contrast between Samik Bhattacharya's rhetoric and that of the more hardline Suvendu Adhikari, the leader of opposition in the state assembly.

However, the CPI(M)'s Srijan Bhattacharya said that such a presence of distinct voices is part of the BJP’s tactics and that he believed it will use Adhikari to court hardline votes while at the same time deploying Samik Bhattacharya to attract moderate ones.

Factionalism and internal discord

Another major challenge for the West Bengal BJP is its internal factionalism. While its leaders publicly deny it, there is a palpable divide between the party's old guard and newer entrants, many of whom defected from the TMC.

Samik Bhattacharya assumed office amid rumours of senior leader Dilip Ghosh potentially joining the TMC – a rumour that gained traction despite Ghosh meeting the new president. During former party president Sukanta Majumdar’s tenure, Dilip Ghosh was seen as having been sidelined, while Adhikari, who joined the saffron party from the TMC in 2020, emerged as a dominant figure.

The leadership insists that the party remains united, but the tension between legacy leaders and recent defectors continues to cast a shadow over BJP’s cohesion.

Shifting voter bases

It is often said in Bengal that people who used to vote for the Left have been shifting to the BJP over time.

Kunal Ghosh argued that voters whom the Left and the Congress have lost over the years have shifted allegiance to the BJP. He claimed: “The TMC’s main character is anti-Left, and the erstwhile local Left leaders and voters are shifting to the BJP. So this is a new challenge for the TMC. It is not the TMC that is giving space to the BJP, but actually the Left that is making way for the BJP.”

Srijan Bhattacharya on the other hand is of the view that “a section of Hindu voters of the Left and the TMC has voted for the BJP. This communal polarisation has led a section of Muslim voters to vote for the TMC as well. The Hindu vote of the TMC that went to the BJP did not pose much of a problem, as the Left's Muslim votes went to the TMC”, appearing to balance each other out.

In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the TMC's seat share was reduced to 22 from 34 seats. Whereas the BJP's tally went up from two seats to 18. The saffron party's vote share meanwhile increased from 17% to 41%. The Congress was reduced to two seats and no Left party was able to open its tally.

In the 2021 assembly election, the TMC won 213 seats (up four seats from 2016) in the 294-member house, while the BJP won 77 seats – 74 more than in 2016. No Congress or Left front candidate was elected to the state assembly.

However, in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the TMC won 29 of the state's 42 seats. Despite targeting 35 seats, the BJP managed to win only 12, which was six less than what it won in 2019.

Turncoats and a credibility crisis

The BJP has experienced both an influx and exodus of leaders. Before the 2021 elections, a flood of TMC leaders joined the BJP, only to return after losing. Some were even rewarded – like Sabyasachi Dutta, who now heads the Bidhannagar Municipal Corporation, and Adhikari. Ghosh acknowledged this trend, noting that while some leaders chase profit, others – like Adhikari – are committed to the cause.

Kunal Ghosh pointed to a prominent characteristic of West Bengal's politics: “Except [in] a few [cases], Bengal's electorate has never rallied behind any single leader. This has made it more difficult for these leaders to join the BJP and garner votes.” Instances like the rise of Banerjee or of the CPI(M) after it split from the CPI, he argued, were those involving the formation of a new party altogether and not of an individual changing parties.

Conclusion

Ultimately, several key questions remain unanswered. Can the BJP re-energise its base? Will its evolving messaging resonate with both majority and minority communities? Can it project unity despite internal differences?

As Sajal Ghosh pointed out, neither the CPI(M) in 1977 nor the TMC in 2011 had a perfect organisational base – what mattered in these cases was momentum and public mood. The BJP is banking on a similar convergence of factors for 2026.

Anustup Roy Barman is a journalist and political consultant.

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