Muzaffarnagar (UP): A lonely stretch of road, cutting past brick-kilns and sheds housing ‘kolhus’ (crushing machines used to extract sugarcane juice), brings us to the centre of Goyla.
The mid-April afternoon sun is beating hard in the village. Barring labourers working in the kolhus near the fields and the odd farmer moving freshly-harvested sugarcane on tractors, the mood here is lethargic.
Joginder Malik, a Jat farmer who owns 50 to 60 bighas of land, rushes to get a long hookah as he sits on a chair next to a wooden cot in the shaded part of his large house.
“Both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) will gain from the alliance,” said Joginder. He is glad that RLD chief Chaudhary Jayant Singh cut ties with the INDIA bloc and switched over to the Narendra Modi-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA).
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
Joginder feels the RLD-BJP alliance has eliminated the confusion and dilemma that Jat voters would have felt had the two parties, which have over the last decade emerged as the main two political options for the Jat community in western Uttar Pradesh, contested as opponents.
His choice for prime minister is Narendra Modi, whom he praises for “doing the best” for the country and modernising the armed forces by providing them bullet proof vests. Road connectivity has also improved under the BJP, he adds.
But Joginder also has complaints, especially regarding sugarcane farming, the main source of livelihood and the pivot of cultural life in this region.
In January, the BJP-run state government increased the state-advised price for sugarcane by Rs 20 per quintal, taking the price of the early maturing variety from Rs 350 to Rs 370.
While the BJP took the decision to woo sugarcane farmers, especially from the influential Jat community, farmers feel Rs 20 was too less given the incremental rise in the costs of farming material and labour, and overall inflation.
Despite government subsidy, pesticides, whose use has increased over time, continue to be expensive.
Farmers, including Joginder, have demanded that the hike should have been at least Rs 40.
Jats in Muzaffarnagar. Photo: Omar Rashid.
But these are not factors on which Joginder will cast his vote.
“In west UP, the main issue is of security. Even Mayawati and the Akhilesh Yadav governments increased cane prices. But there was a sense of constant fear in the minds of people,” said Joginder.
Today, under BJP rule, one can visit the field at any time of the day without being looted or harmed, he said.
The crimes he refers to have a clear communal undertone. His daughter Sakshi Malik, who has a B.Ed degree, claimed that when other parties ruled UP, Muslims would corner lonely stretches of roads in the village or set up stalls on one side of two-way roads to sell meat, thereby putting lives at risk and also disturbing the flow of traffic.
“It used to be unsafe. Loot incidents were common. Safety is my main concern,” said Sakshi, whose parents sent her to study outside Muzaffarnagar after the deadly communal riots of 2013, in which over 60 people were killed.
Although the fire of that bloody incident has been doused with time, the mistrust of the Hindu community towards local Muslims surfaces every now and then.
It is in this scenario, of pressing agrarian questions and shadows of communal divisions, that the INDIA bloc faces the task of challenging the BJP in Muzaffarnagar, one of the most vibrant and prestigious constituencies in the first phase of voting.
The constituency comprises Budhana, Charthawal, Khatauli and Muzaffarnagar assembly units in Muzaffarnagar district and the Sardhana assembly seat in Meerut.
In 2014, when the BJP stormed to power at the Centre, a lot of credit went to the communal polarisation that was created by the Muzaffarnagar riots.
The saffron wind travelled to other parts of the state, helping the BJP and its ally, the Apna Dal, win 73 out of 80 seats.
This time, Muzaffarnagar stands out for two specific reasons. One, it is the only seat out of 80 where the opposition INDIA bloc has fielded a Jat. The Samajwadi Party (SP)’s Harendra Malik, a senior Jat leader and former MP, is pitted against the sitting BJP MP, Sanjeev Balyan, himself a Jat, who rose to prominence following the 2013 riots.
Two, the big question being asked here is: what impact will the RLD’s switch to the BJP have on the Jats here after a decade of anti-BJP politics by Chaudhary Jayant Singh, who dubbed the saffron party as anti-farmer and anti-Jat?
Jats who have supported the RLD all their lives feel the BJP short-changed Jayant Chaudhary. Photo: X/@jayantrld.
It is said that when the RLD broke ties with the SP, one of the points of contention was that the RLD was unwilling to give up its claim on Muzaffarnagar.
Interestingly, after switching to the NDA, the RLD not only got a reduced share of two seats to contest, as against the seven granted to it by the SP, but it also ceded Muzaffarnagar to the BJP.
Anecdotal testimonies suggest that while the RLD-BJP alliance has provided a layer of cushion to the BJP and helped it send a message of consolidation among the Jats, there are many who are not convinced by the RLD’s sudden step.
Since the BJP candidate Sanjeev Balyan is not doing too well on the popularity charts these days, the resentment in a section of Jats, groomed in anti-BJP politics over the years and who participated in several farmers protests, has brought hope to the opposition here.
That the opposition candidate is himself a Jat has opened up an option for the disgruntled among the Jats.
“If Jayant Chaudhary has so much influence on the BJP, why could he not get the Muzaffarnagar seat for his party? He could have at least got Sanjeev Balyan replaced!” said Balram Balyan, a farmer and RLD supporter.
Many like Balram are unhappy that Jayant Singh switched over to the NDA after the Modi government awarded the Bharat Ratna to his grandfather and former PM, Chaudhary Charan Singh, without any consultation.
“Nothing has changed for the kisan after the Bharat Ratna. Have the prices fallen? People still don’t have jobs. Then there is this mischief over Agniveer. Neither Hindus nor Muslims are able to get married easily,” said Balram.
“Jayant has managed to get five-six laddoos in his hand. What’s he going to do with them – eat them himself or feed those around him?”
The joke was on the two seats the RLD is fighting in this election – Baghpat and Bijnor – as part of the NDA.
Jats who have supported the RLD all their lives feel the BJP short-changed Jayant Chaudhary.
Others recall how the police under the BJP-ruled government had lathi charged Jayant when he was on his way to Hathras in 2020 and the death of hundreds of farmers while agitating against the three farm laws brought by the Modi government.
A Jat man in Muzaffarnagar. Photo: Omar Rashid.
A section of Jats also feel the RLD should not have supported the BJP, as the party had defeated Jayant’s father and former MP Ajit Singh in Muzaffarnagar in 2019.
Mahek Singh, a prominent farmer, praises Modi and Adityanath for their overall rule, but he feels the Congress was “soft” on farmers. He is not happy that other marginalised communities are reaping the benefits of the BJP government’s welfare schemes.
Like in most cases here, this also has a communal tinge. Many Jats The Wire spoke to felt that Muslims, who have large populations in many districts in west UP, were reaping the most out of the saffron party’s welfare schemes, including free ration, pucca homes and state-funded weddings.
“The Muslims are getting the most benefits. They are getting free ration. It is they who have large families. We are not even getting labourers. Small farmers are unable to even pay the rates for labourers on their farms,” said Mahek, cooling off on a cot.
His Islamophobia aside, Mahek is much more pragmatic when it comes to assessing the impact of the RLD-BJP alliance.
An RLD old-timer, he feels Jayant Chaudhary compromised on his party’s future by allying with the BJP and settling on contesting only two constituencies after winning eight MLA seats in 2022.
“What was the compulsion?” asked Mahek.
Since the Jat support bases of the BJP, RLD and the various farmer groups are intertwined and often difficult to separate on the basis of ideology, things are not as black and white.
Many of those who are critical of the BJP for failing to raise sugarcane prices still support it for other reasons.
Sanjeev Balyan, a farmer, said he would vote for his namesake BJP candidate because the BJP had increased the coverage of good roads and built infrastructure like never before. Then, there is the oft-quoted issue of security.
“There have been no riots under the rule of Yogi. People are scared of Yogi. He does what he wants and says,” said Sanjeev.
Which people, I ask? Jaipal Singh, a senior Jat voter, who is smoking hookah on a cot after lunch next to Sanjeev, answers that.
“Mullo ko dharti mein gusa diya [Yogi has sent Muslims underground],” Jaipal said, revealing the ingrained anti-Muslim communalism here.
But what about the livelihood issues, especially cane dues and cane prices? Sanjeev is hopeful that if the BJP comes to power, things will get better with the support of the RLD.
Also read: Ten Years Later, Shadow of the 2013 Riots Still Haunts Muzaffarnagar
“If the BJP wins 400 seats, it will increase the sugarcane price to Rs 400,” said Sanjeev. The RLD’s campaign also hinges on this promise of getting a better deal for farmers through its alliance with the BJP.
None of these matter for Sonu Malik, 28, a Jat who works in a CCTV firm in Delhi. He is voting for the BJP and Modi even though he finds the sitting MP inaccessible, rude and arrogant.
The internal divisions between the Jats on the basis of khaps – Balyan belongs to the Balyan khap while the SP candidate is from the Gathwala khap – are also irrelevant for Sonu.
Like many youngsters here, he dishes out data on how many more AIIMS, airports and roads have been built in the country under Modi’s rule. On the other hand, under the previous governments, power supply was a big issue and incidents of loot were common.
But what about the pain and misery faced by the farmers?
“Only those farmers following the Tikait brothers [of the Bharatiya Kisan Union] were protesting on the streets,” said Sonu, who feels that even Harendra Malik, the SP’s sole Jat candidate in UP, should have joined the BJP.
Subash Chandra Balyan, who exports herbal products to Russia, marked the BJP high on some aspects – good foreign policy, increase in infrastructural growth and inclusion of retired IAS and IFS officers in government posts – but criticised it on others – inflation, unemployment, the Agniveer scheme as well as the cash crunch and debt woes faced by the rural economy.
“Without jobs and proper literacy, these young men going for the Agniveer scheme will return and turn to armed crimes or at best work as watchmen,” he said.
Subash Chandra has also had a personal bad experience with the Make in India scheme. He had proposed a technology to dispose of polythene safely, but received zero response from the government, entangling him in bureaucratic processes.
“Corruption is the same as before. In fact, it is on the higher side today,” said he.
Also read: What Might the Congress-Samajwadi Party Alliance Achieve in Uttar Pradesh?
How people eventually cast their votes on voting day is often delinked from their concerns and issues they raise in the run-up to it. Voting is more of an emotional affair than a rational decision in India.
But one thing is clear, the Muzaffarnagar seat would be a good test of the compatibility between the RLD and BJP after a decade of antagonism, especially on secular values and farmer issues.
Without the support of the RLD old-timers, the BJP might find it hard to win here.
Addressing a rally in Meerut earlier in April, Jayant Singh, with BJP leader Amit Shah on stage, appealed to his workers to show a “much bigger heart” in this election.
“We have gone through a lot of struggles [as the opposition], but now you will have to show a much bigger heart,” Jayant said.
He quoted lines from poet Dushyant Kumar to send across his message to RLD workers.
“Ye sach hain ki pavo ne bahut kashth uthaye. Par pau kisi tarah rah pe toh aye,” he said, implying that the RLD was finally on the right track – from Muzaffarnagar to Delhi – to power.
While the two Jats have occupied much of the limelight in Muzaffarnagar, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) is also in the fray.
It has fielded a candidate from the Prajapati (OBC) caste, Dara Singh Prajapati. With the consolidation of the Jatav voters and Prajapati support base of the candidate, the BSP hopes it can put up a good fight. This is likely to hurt the BJP further.
Biram Pal, a Prajapati who runs a snacks stall near Kalyanpur village, says he will not vote for the BJP this time. He is in no mood to vote for a Jat candidate, unlike in previous years.
“All communities have extended support to Dara Singh … Dalits, Pal, Prajapati, Saini. This time we have a candidate from our baradari. We will vote for him,” said Pal, without blinking an eye.
