Valsad in South Gujarat is a parliamentary constituency that is known for one particular reason. Whichever political party wins the Valsad Loksabha election gets to rule India. Ever since the first parliamentary election of India, it has been observed that Valsad is the bellwether seat of India. Today on Tuesday, Valsad in Gujarat polled the highest voting percentage. The voting percentage in Valsad is expected to be above 68. Gujaratis believe that the BJP is all set to strike a hattrick and set to form the government at the Centre.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
This is the reason the BJP confidently dropped its sitting MP K.C. Patel and instead nominated a young BJP tribal leader Dhaval Patel from this seat. Surat-based Dhaval, who is an engineering and a management graduate, is facing Congress MLA Anant Patel. Valsad Parliamentary seat has seven Assembly seats including Dharampur, Dangs, Vansda, Valsad, Pardi, Umargaon and Kaprada. Out of these seats, the BJP won six in the 2022 Assembly elections. Vansda, represented by Anant Patel, is the only seat with the Congress. Valsad Lok Sabha seat is reserved for scheduled tribes.
So confident is the BJP of winning the 2024 general elections that it dropped its’ two-time sitting MP K.C. Patel and instead opted for Dhaval. K.C. Patel was also alleged of raping a woman in Ghaziabad. He however had claimed that the woman had drugged him and taken pictures with him in a compromising position and was blackmailing him. This was in 2017. The Narendra Modi government had later arrested the woman.
From the first Loksabha elections in 1951-52 till 1971, Valsad elected Nanubhai Patel of the Congress. From the first Parliamentary elections till the last one in 2019, whichever party won the Valsad seat, ruled Delhi. This means when Nanubhai Patel won Valsad, Congress won the general elections. Nanubhai Patel quit the Congress and joined the Janata Party and contested as their candidate in 1977. Janata Party emerged victorious and Morarji Desai of the Janata Party, a Gujarati from Surat became the Prime Minister.
In 1980, Congress fielded Uttambhai Patel from Valsad. Indira Gandhi of Congress became the prime minister and Congress again took the reins. After her assassination, Uttambhai was again repeated by the Congress in 1984. Rajiv Gandhi became the prime minister and Congress won again.
However, in 1989, Arjunbhai Patel won from Valsad. He represented Janata Dal. Interestingly, V P Singh of Janata Dal became the prime minister. In the 1991 general elections, Uttambhai Patel again won from a Congress ticket. P.V. Narasimha Rao of Congress became the prime minister and it was Congress rule again. In 1996, for the first time, a BJP MP Manibhai Chaudhry won from Valsad. At Centre, the BJP formed their government and Atal Behari Vajpayee became the prime minister for the first time, albeit only for 16 days. Manibhai again won Valsad in 1998 and 1999.
In 2004 and 2009, Kishan Vestabhai Patel of Congress won the Valsad Loksabha seat. Both times, the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) formed governments at the Centre.
However, in the following Loksabha election in 2014, BJP’s K.C. Patel won. Narendra Modi of the BJP became the Prime Minister of India. K.C. Patel was re-elected as the BJP candidate in 2019. The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) again won and Modi became the PM for the second time.
This time in 2024, BJP’s Dhaval Patel is facing Congress’ Anant Patel. Valsad has recorded the highest voting percentage in Gujarat. It remains to be seen whether Valsad will continue its reputation of being the seat that elects the government that rules India or whether it will stop being a bellwether seat.
This article first appeared on Vibes of India.
