Eight Takeaways from Odisha Polls: Will Naveen Patnaik Become India's Longest Serving CM?

On June 1, Odisha will vote in the final of four-phase of simultaneous elections for Lok Sabha and assembly in the state. Though there are three political players — the ruling Biju Janata Dal (BJD), Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Congress party — the polls this time are being intensely fought between the first two parties.

Chief minister Naveen Patnaik has already ruled Odisha for over 24 years and, if he wins this time, will become India’s longest serving chief minister of a state beating the record of former Sikkim chief minister Pawan Kumar Chamling.

Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty

But this time, Patnaik, 77, is facing his toughest electoral battle. This writer travelled across at least seven Lok Sabha constituencies (and 49 assembly seats under them) of Odisha and found all the three parties were plagued by internal conflicts, which will have a bearing on the outcome of the elections.

Broadly speaking, the electoral scenario in the eastern state can be described in eight points based on the travels through the grassroots.

First, the BJD is still very strong as far as organisation is concerned. The BJP and Congress come nowhere near the BJD in terms of the power of the cadres and running election machinery. In fact, in the perception war, the grand old party is nowhere in the picture, except for individual efforts by some of the resilient party candidates. If any Congress candidate wins, it will be assumed that it is his individual effort.

Second, the BJP is growing in the state. The BJP shared power with the BJD between 2000 and 2009. After both the parties went separate ways before the 2009 elections, the BJP became the third major political force in the state.

In 2019, however, backed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity and the Pulwama-Balakot narrative, the BJP pushed the Congress to the third position and became the main opposition party in Odisha. The saffron party won eight Lok Sabha seats — an increase from just one seat in 2014 — and 23 assembly seats. The BJD, which won a comfortable 113 assembly seats, was limited to only 12 Lok Sabha seats while it had won 20 seats in 2014.

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Third, a visible chunk of voters have shown their preference towards the BJP, especially the middle class and youngsters with smartphones. Over the 24 years of Patnaik’s reign, a new generation has evolved, and the new voters, dependent on social media for information (or misinformation), seem to be emotionally less attached to Patnaik.

Fourth, women are solidly behind Patnaik. Since he came to power in Odisha, several initiatives relating to women’s health and social and economic empowerment were launched. These measures have helped consolidate a women’s vote bank for the BJD.

In the 2019 elections, the campaign by a belligerent BJP made many to believe that it would completely run down the BJD government and end the “Naveen era”. It, however, did not happen. The silent support of the women for Patnaik was cited as one of the most important factors behind the BJD’s emphatic victory.

Fifth, Patnaik still remains the most popular leader in Odisha. The Opposition parties have not been able to make a dent in his supposedly clean image. Most of the common people also do not have any ill-feeling towards the person who has ruled Odisha for 24 years. Many, however, feel that if Patnaik suffers losses it will be because of V.K. Pandian, civil servant-turned-politician, who is the only visible campaigner of the BJD besides Patnaik.

Sixth, the 2024 elections in Odisha are a referendum on Pandian who political leaders and the middle class love to hate. Interestingly, most of the Opposition’s vicious attacks have been directed against him, instead of Patnaik or any other leader of the BJD. Even Prime Minister Modi has vehemently criticised Pandian at his election rallies in Odisha.

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Seventh, the outcome of the elections may be more or less like 2019. The BJD and BJP may gain or lose one or two Lok Sabha seats. But the BJP may increase its vote share and assembly seats.

Many people think the Congress too may increase its assembly seat to double-digit. It may also retain the single Lok Sabha seat.

Eighth, there are circumstances, however, which no pollster, political analyst or politician can foresee. In such an exceptional situation, the BJD may face a drubbing like the Manik Sarkar government did in Tripura after a long tenure in power.

Longer innings of power have their own baggage and fatigue. In the meanwhile, a new generation of voters have emerged and they have a different value system.

Such an exceptional situation, however, seems a remote possibility, at least at the moment.

Priya Ranjan Sahu is a senior journalist based in Odisha. 

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