In an interview to The Wire’s Sravasti Dasgupta, Yogendra Yadav, activist, psephologist and founder of the Swaraj Abhiyan, discussed the recent release of caste survey data by the Bihar government. The data revealed that the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), Scheduled Castes (SCs), and Scheduled Tribes (STs) constitute approximately 84% of Bihar’s population, while the Forward Caste or General Category makes up only 15.5%.
Yogendra Yadav emphasised that the released data is the first part of the survey, focusing solely on population numbers. The more significant part of the data, which includes the socio-economic profile of each caste, is yet to be released. He highlighted that this data will provide insights into factors like education, land ownership, and economic status within different castes.
He further said that the survey results could have a cascading effect across states and pose an electoral dilemma for the BJP ahead of the general elections in 2024.
Reproduced below is the full transcript of the interview.
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Sravasti Dasgupta: Hello and welcome to The Wire. I’m Sravasti Dasgupta. On October 2, the Bihar government released caste survey data. According to the data, the Other Backward Classes (OBCs), Scheduled Castes (SCs), and Scheduled Tribes (STs) constitute about 84% of Bihar’s population, while the Forward Caste or the General Category, as they are known, is only 15.5%.
To discuss the implications of the caste survey data on the national politics, and what it really means, we have with us today Yogendra Yadav, who is an activist, psephologist, and founder of the Swaraj Abhiyan
Thank you so much Mr. Yadav for joining us on The Wire.
Yogendra Yadav: Thank you
Sravasti Dasgupta: My first question is, since the last caste census, which was conducted in 1931 by the British, there has been a 10% jump in the [population of the Economically Backward Castes] EBCs and the OBC groups, as we can see in this data. I want to mention to our viewers that the 1931 census was, of course, conducted during the British in an undivided India. Mr. Yadav, how do you see these figures which show a 10% jump, and also the fact that the Forward Castes are a mere 15.5%. How one must see this data?
Yogendra Yadav: Sravasti, I think we must tell our viewers what this whole thing [caste survey] is all about, and how ‘not to’ read this data.
We have only received the first installment of the caste survey data in Bihar. So far, it shows only the population numbers, [meaning] which caste has how much proportion in the population. This is only the first and the less significant part of the data for the caste survey.
The real significant part of this data is yet to come. This would be the data on the socio-economic profile of each of these castes – how many of them are graduates in each caste; how many of them have four-wheelers, a laptop; how many of them are engaged in agriculture labour; how much land do they control.
These are the real figures that I’m really looking forward to. What we have so far is only the population estimates.
There are some surprises, and [also] not much for those people like me who have been following surveys over the years.
We must also remember that normally, the census takes place in the country every ten years. It hasn’t happened since 2021, [which is] an extraordinary situation.
The Census of India not only tells us the total population, but gives us the population of [the persons belonging to] the SC, ST [communities], and the religious population, including that of the Muslims. This is the novel thing, so the idea that we know nothing about the castes of India since 1931 is completely false. We do know certain things.
The additional things that we know because of this survey are the number of OBCs within the OBCs, the number of upper OBCs or the backward, and the ‘lower’ OBCs, the extremely backward. These are the new things.
So, what the survey has told us is the following: it has, of course, updated the overall population of Bihar, which wasn’t known because we haven’t had a [caste] survey or a census for the last 30 years. It tells us that the proportion of SCs, STs, and Muslims has gone up. The growth in the case of SCs and STs is substantial and very steep. In the case of Muslims, the growth is not so steep. It tells us that the proportion of OBCs is much bigger than what was normally imagined.
Somehow, there’s been a mythical figure of 52% floating around.
In the case of Bihar, now we know the overall proportion of the OBCs is 63%, which is higher than the NSSO estimates and other estimates that we have known. What we also know is that within the OBCs, it is the EBCs, the extremely backward castes, which are not spoken about, who no one notices, who get very little representation in politics and in other positions of power. They comprise 37%. So, these, I believe, are the important findings.
What we also know is the relative proportion of each caste and community. You have mentioned that the forward castes are 15.5%. I think we need to nuance it further because these forward castes also include some Muslims, the Sheikhs, Syeds, Pathans, etc.
So the four Hindu ‘upper’ castes, which are the real privileged communities of Bihar, namely the Brahmins, Bhumihars, Rajputs, and Kayasthas, put together, make up only 10.6% of Bihar’s population.
That’s a staggering figure, because so much of Bihar’s public life used to be controlled, and is still dominated, by these four communities, which comprise only 10.6%. So one-tenth of Bihar controls so much of public life. That is an important figure.
At the moment, this data does not give out the socio-economic conditions of these castes. Note that the Bihar government has said that it will be releasing this data very soon. However, this is being used as an opportunity by many in the opposition to claim that we cannot say anything about the data at the moment because it is “incomplete”.
In the absence of this socio-economic data, how should we interpret the current data, because the idea behind releasing this data was to discuss development. But without the numbers, how can we deliver the goods of development? So, in the absence of this socio-economic data, how one must read the current data that we have?
Sravasti, the word “incomplete” is misleading. The data is not incomplete. The data which has been put out is complete, reliable, and final. There is nothing provisional, temporary, or uncertain about the data; it is incomplete only in the second sense. That means there are other sets of information yet to be released. This is exactly how big survey data is always released.
You first release the population totals and then you release tables on specific social backgrounds. So, the second set of data is important.
What we know right now is the proportion of each jaati and each social group. What we do not officially know yet is what proportion of land does each community control, how much educational advantages and privileges they enjoy. We do have some sense about these things because NSSO has been looking at these things, and I looked at the previous NSSO reports, they gave a very broad idea [on this matter].
So, what we do know from the NSSO [data] is that among those who have, say, five acres of land or above, which is a substantially big proportion of land among them, there is a huge difference between the ‘upper’ caste Hindus and the OBCs. Only 9.2% of the general category were [engaged in] agricultural labour while for the OBCs, it is 29%.
The NSSO official data, not the Bihar census, right now, gives you a broad idea of land ownership among those who control five acres or more land. It is twice as much among the ‘upper’ castes as compared to the OBCs. In education, only 10.5% of the general category [population] were graduates. Among the OBCs, the proportion was only 2.8%.
So, we should expect to see stark differences between these categories. We should also expect to see stark differences within these categories, because OBC is an umbrella category. It includes both landed and somewhat powerful communities like the Yadavs and Koeris, but it also includes service and landless, and very small communities, which have, say, very little power, very little education, and some of them are worse off than Dalits.
So, that is the profile we are likely to get.
This is, incidentally, also the first survey in Bihar which has given us a detailed breakup of the Muslim community. Within the Muslim community, only 3% to 4% are privileged, forward, and the remaining, about 14% are backward. So, the real advantage of this survey is that it has put the focus on the most disadvantaged invisibilised micro communities.
That’s an important point – that the data has put the focus on the most invisibilised sections of our community. You had also mentioned earlier that one-tenth of Bihar’s population is controlling the goods of development.
Note that in 2019, the Modi government gave 10% reservations for the economically weaker sections. The Supreme Court had upheld this reservation and waived off the 50% ceiling, which is the national cap on caste-based reservations. Now with these new figures coming in, do you think it is viable to defend 10% for about 15% of the population and 27% for over 60% of the population? How can one defend this?
Sravasti, this actually puts the focus on something utterly ridiculous, something that we’ve already mentioned, and for this we don’t need to wait for the socio-economic profile.
Now we know that there is a group in Bihar which is 15.5%. Let’s include the Muslim Sheikhs and Pathans here as well, because technically, they [come under the] non-reserved [category]. So, about 15.5% [of the population] are unreserved, generally, of which there are people who are economically weaker. We don’t know how many, no one has conducted a survey, no one knows the numbers, [and] who have been given a 10% reservation.
So, a slice of the 15%, presumably, a slice which would be, let’s say, half, [or] less than half, so 7 to 8% have been given 10% reservation. On the other hand, 63% of the population has central government jobs, and has 27% reservation.
In the Bihar government, they have 30% reservation.
If you include women, that’s a little more than 30% reservation, but that’s still less than half, so there’s something absurd that we are looking at. And, in a sense, the EWS reservation appears to be an extra reward for those who are already privileged. [That] makes no sense.
I must say I was utterly surprised and disappointed with the Supreme Court judgment. I’ve written about that. I really wish the Supreme Court had asked for the data, as it has done in every other case. It’s only in the case of EWS that the Supreme Court suddenly said that there’s no need for data, we don’t need to look at it.
In every other case, the Supreme Court has asked, demanded, insisted, that we must have evidence before we can provide any quota. In this case, they did not and the results are now quite obvious in our face. This is absurd.
So, you’re mentioning that it’s absurd that a very small section of the population, as in the case of Bihar, about 15.5%, get additional reservation in the form of the economically weaker sections quota. But I want to ask about the politics surrounding the caste survey.
The opposition parties have been united in their chorus for a caste census at the national level. The Bihar caste survey has also found unanimous support among members of the opposition INDIA alliance. Meanwhile, we have not seen a very coherent response from the BJP. The prime minister released a statement a couple of days ago where he accused the opposition of attempting to divide the country, but we’ll come to that in just a moment. I want to ask you, [considering that] the BJP’s vote share from the OBC community was about 44% in 2019, how do you see this resonating in the upcoming general elections next year? With the chorus from the opposition parties about social justice, do you think it will find some resonance?
First thing first Sravasti, irrespective of the political benefits, this is a step forward. If the BJP benefits from it, it’s a step forward. If the opposition benefits from it, it’s a step forward. Getting to know the truth about our society, getting an X-ray of the social situation in our society is definitely a step forward, irrespective of the political gains.
In terms of who would gain from it, it is no longer a simple equation where the BJP has ‘upper’ caste votes, and the opposition has the OBC votes.
If that was the case, the BJP would be nowhere in Bihar politics.
The BJP does have a significant proportion of OBC votes, especially the [votes from the] EBCs. This survey puts the focus on that. So it’s not necessary that the BJP would be disadvantaged by this [survey]. That is probably the reason why BJP’s Bihar leadership wants to be seen to be supporting it.
However, at a larger national level, if the demand for a caste census gathers ground, it can have a cascading effect. Bihar has released it, Odisha says they are about to release it, Karnataka government is sitting on it and they can release it any day. They just need a nod from the Delhi Congress leadership.
Also read: Nine Reasons Why Numbers Revealed by Bihar Caste Census Could Shake up National Politics
If the BJP is seen to be opposing it, then it will come across as not a friend of the OBC, because the demand for a caste census is seen to be a demand for the recognition of the OBC community.
The reason is simple. The SCs and STs are already being counted. It’s the OBC community which is not being counted. So, if the BJP seems to be opposing the caste census demand, [and it is currently opposing this demand], and if the demand gathers ground, then it can lead to a mobilisation of the OBCs against the BJP. That is what it fears and that’s why its is attempting to counter it.
I suspect that the timing of the arrests, detentions, and raids on NewsClick [may be related to] the government being so afraid of the publicity that the Bihar survey was getting.
[I am building] on your point that the Bihar leadership of the BJP has been cautious in their approach to the caste survey data. While we have had Prime Minister Modi saying, at a rally, a couple of days ago, that the opposition is trying to divide the country, Bihar BJP leaders have said different things at different points.
Bihar BJP chief Samrat Chaudhary said that there is a need to read this data and go through it thoroughly before coming up with anything, or Giriraj Singh, who said that Nitish Kumar is trying to mislead people. So, we have got a wide range of statements coming in, or in fact, someone like Sushil Kumar Modi who has said that it was the BJP which started the process of the caste survey in Bihar.
So, right now, the BJP appears to lack a coherent position on this matter. Do you think this non-conformist approach will be beneficial than taking a [clear] yes or no stance?
It’s not merely the prime minister. I think the dilemma that the BJP is caught in is much deeper. As we all know, the BJP and the RSS would like to see the end of reservations in this country. They don’t like reservation for SCs and STs, and they certainly do not want an expansion and extension of the caste-based reservation social justice apparatus. At the same time, given the logic of elections and numbers, they do not want to be seen to be opposing it.
Remember that it’s not merely the recent things…you’ve correctly pointed out all the recent contradictions, but these contradictions go back.
In 2010, the BJP had joined the unanimous chorus in parliament to demand a caste-based census. A resolution was passed in parliament in 2010. The BJP had happily endorsed it. [It said] there should be a caste-based census. In 2018, when Mr. Rajnath Singh was the home minister, he had given an assurance on the floor of the House that in the next census, OBCs shall be counted. This demand has been made by the parliamentary committee dominated by the BJP.
This demand has been made by six governments, not one or two, and this is something which has been endorsed by the National Commission for Backward Classes.
So, it’s not merely one source, it’s not merely the Bihar BJP. It’s a larger national dilemma. And if this demand gathers ground, the BJP would have to come clean. It would have to take one side. And with the prime minister already taking this side, there are not too many sides the BJP can take.
And the fact is that they have not allowed caste census to be done.
So, the BJP is clearly on the wrong side of this movement, and therefore, it would not want this [news] to gather pace, to become a demand, to be seen as something which is endorsed by the OBC [community], and hence, its desperate attempt to somehow just cover this news.
Also read: BJP’s NDA Allies Sing a Different Tune, Reiterate Demand for Caste Census
You were mentioning that historically, the BJP and the RSS have sought to do away with caste-based reservations in India. However, we’ve observed a departure in the RSS’s point of view recently.
Mr. Mohan Bhagwat said that they would not oppose caste-based reservations, which makes a departure from his earlier view expressed in 2015, where he said that it needs to be reevaluated.
In the current political climate where the BJP is targeting the opposition and emphasising ‘sanatan dharma’ as a focal point of its attack, do you think it will be challenging for the BJP to disregard the caste divisions that ‘sanatan dharma’ inherently propagates?
It really depends on how the opposition plays it. If the opposition succeeds in making this into a big question, [especially] if [other states such as] Odisha and Karnataka follow Bihar’s lead, and Rajasthan has already declared, but probably not notified, the demand for a caste census. So, if there is a cascading effect, then the BJP is caught. Then they will have to take a position, and that’s why the BJP doesn’t want this demand to come up, because they don’t know what positions to take.
So, it depends on how the opposition plays it.
This can truly be a very important moment in the run-up to the 2024 [Lok Sabha elections]. The BJP knows it, and that’s why, probably, the RSS chief was persuaded to issue the statement [on caste reservations].
Everyone knows the RSS’s position on this issue. This is something they are deeply uncomfortable with, even when they want to have inroads among Adivasis and Dalits. The OBC is a community, especially the dominant OBCs, that the RSS has simply not been able to cultivate in that sense, so the BJP would not want this to grow further and they don’t quite know what stand to take, and hence their desire to wriggle out of it.
Watch | Three Decades of Mandal, Kamandal and Media
You are saying that if this becomes a cascading effect across states, then it will become difficult for the BJP to look away from it, and it could become a major talking point going into the elections next year. But I also want to speak to you about the larger political implications of this [issue], since we are talking about elections.
The demand for a caste census is not only gaining ground through different states, but even among the allies of the BJP, whether it is Apna Dal or Om Prakash Rajbhar or even its allies in Bihar. They have Sanjay Nishad in Uttar Pradesh. All these BJP allies have spoken in favour of a caste census. Do you see this political moment, with the Bihar caste survey data, becoming a Mandal 2.0 moment of sorts?
That’s precisely what the BJP is worried about.
Bihar is not just Bihar. Bihar has an immediate impact on Uttar Pradesh. As you mentioned, all these allies of the BJP represent the EBCs. They represent smaller OBC communities which have a very strong presence. So, these demands are likely to come up. This is why the BJP is concerned, because there is no way it can frontally say no to them. This is really the political electoral dilemma that the BJP is facing. This would happen in state after state.
In Maharashtra, too, it would be impossible for the Shiv Sena to say that they don’t want a caste census. So, there would be pressure from its allies, from within the BJP, as was in the case of Bihar, but increasingly, in other states as well, because the BJP has expanded, and in many states, the BJP is in power, because of support from the lower section of the OBCs, there would be demand from within the BJP to support the caste census. Therefore, it would become difficult. I would underline the fact that when we speak of a caste census, we only think of OBCs, and when we think of OBCs, we think only of the upper crust of the OBCs – Yadavs, Kurmis, Kunbis, Gowdas, and so on. But the real advantage of this survey is that it puts the focus on the lower end, the extremely backward [castes/classes].
There are a very large number of communities. Each one of them is numerically very small. But [if] put together, they constitute a very big chunk.
They have not benefitted from the OBC reservations, and the same applies to Muslims. There is a large chunk of Pasmanda backward Muslims. The real advantage of this survey, both in terms of policy and politics, will be a greater focus and attention on these sections which have historically been neglected, and this could be their moment in the sun.
Sravasti Dasgupta: All right let’s leave it to that Mr. Yadav. Thank you so much for joining us at The Wire.
Yogendra Yadav: Thank you.