In the recently concluded Haryana elections, more candidates contested from Jat Land, Jat Sikh Land, and Ahirwal than any other area. Compared to the Lok Sabha polls, there was a slight drop in turnout. There was greater mobilisation of voters in favour of the Congress than the BJP. On the other hand, BJP and Congress not only increased their seat shares but also improved on their vote shares in comparison to the 2019 and 2014 elections.
All this and more is revealed in a close read of the data from these polls and those of earlier ones. The Wire brings you the story of the polls in graphs.
This is part two of the three-part series. Read part one here.
Voter turnout 2014-2024
The 2024 Haryana assembly elections marked a continued decline in voter turnout, with participation falling by 0.6 percentage points compared to the 2019 assembly elections and a striking 8.2 percentage points in 2014. The marginal dip in participation stems from lower turnouts in the urban seats of Gurgaon and Faridabad districts.
However, compared to the 2024 general election, the voter turnout increased by 3.1%. State elections usually see higher participation, indicating greater local engagement. Interestingly, despite the declining turnout in Haryana’s assembly elections, the 67.9% participation rate still surpassed that of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. This reflects that state elections continue to hold a higher degree of relevance for many voters. Nevertheless, the persistent decline since 2014 points to a larger trend of voter fatigue and possible frustration with the options presented by major political parties.
Constituency-wise voter turnout of the Haryana assembly elections, 2024
A pattern emerges – the BJP performed well in areas with lower voter turnouts, while the Congress excelled in high-turnout regions. The BJP won eight of the 10 seats where voter turnout was 60% or less, while the Congress could only secure two. The Congress, on the other hand, won 10 of the 13 seats where voter turnout was 75% or more; the BJP could secure victory only in one constituency while Indian National Lok Dal won two of these 13 seats.
However, this doesn’t necessarily mean that higher voter turnout always spells trouble for the incumbent. In fact, the BJP also performed well in areas with moderate turnout, suggesting effective mobilisation by both the INC and BJP. Yet, it’s impossible to definitively determine which party these mobilised voters ultimately supported.
Average voter turnout, winning party wise, assembly election, Haryana, 2024
The 2024 and 2019 voter turnout for all parties in the fray indicate that wherever the BJP won, the average voter turnout hovered around 66%, while the same was nearly 71% for the Congress. This may also indicate that there was greater mobilisation of voters in favour of the Congress than the BJP.
The Congress’s increase indicates successful voter engagement, especially in rural and semi-rural regions where the party remains a formidable competitor. This suggests a mobilisation of Jats in favour of the Congress. The party appears to have capitalised on anti-incumbency sentiment in certain regions, maintaining its competitiveness.
The decline in turnout for Independents signals their waning influence, possibly due to voters gravitating toward major parties or disillusionment with non-affiliated candidates. In past elections, independents often attracted voters dissatisfied with mainstream options, but in 2024, their impact has lessened – perhaps due to increased polarisation or strategic voting.
The data also suggests that voters are increasingly consolidating their preferences around major parties (BJP and Congress) rather than independents. This trend aligns with national and state-level political polarisation, where voters prioritise parties capable of winning rather than expressing discontent through Independents.
The number of candidates who contested and deposits lost in the Haryana assembly polls, 2014-2024
In 2024, 1,121 candidates contested the Haryana Assembly elections, a slight decline from 1,169 in 2019. This reduction, continuing a trend since the 1996 peak, suggests a consolidation of political interests and a shift toward major parties over smaller contenders.
Despite fewer candidates, 918 lost their deposits, indicating a large proportion failed to secure the minimum vote threshold (one-sixth of the total votes polled). This highlights the ongoing struggle of non-major party candidates to gain traction, underscoring the dominance of established political entities like BJP, INC, and INLD.
The high proportion of deposit losses (over 80%) reveals that while political participation remains broad, electoral success is increasingly concentrated among fewer, more influential parties. This trend implies a rise in strategic voting, with voters preferring to back stronger candidates from larger parties rather than independents or lesser-known options. Such behaviour reinforces the consolidation around viable contenders.
Constituency-wise candidate count
In this election, every constituency had at least six candidates in the fray. The majority – 75 constituencies – saw between 5 and 15 candidates competing, while 15 constituencies had more than 15 candidates in the race. This marks a shift from 2019, when 52 constituencies had 5-15 candidates, and 38 constituencies featured more than 15 candidates.
Region-wise, more candidates contested from Jat Land, Jat Sikh Land, and Ahirwal. Interestingly, out of these 15 seats, the INC managed to win only 3 (two in Jat Land and 1 in Jat Sikh Land) where they were hedging their bets. The fragmentation of anti-incumbency votes helped the BJP, which won 11 of these 15 seats. It’s in these areas that the BJP managed to win, demonstrating their efficient seat-to-vote conversion.
Parties contested and represented in assembly
The number of contesting parties surged dramatically from 30 in 2000 to 51 in 2009, followed by 46 in 2014, and a peak of 74 in 2019. Despite this massive surge in contesting parties, the number of represented parties in the assembly remains around 7, indicating that a few dominant parties continue to secure the majority of seats despite the high competition.
The significant drop in represented parties in 2024 is a critical point for analysis. While 62 parties contested, only 3 secured seats in the assembly. This could be attributed to political polarisation, the decline of smaller parties, and the impact of national politics, where national narratives have had a significant impact, especially since 2014.
Main parties vote share trend Haryana
In the 2024 Haryana assembly elections, which was seen as a direct contest between the BJP and the Congress, both the parties not only increased their seat shares but also improved on their vote shares in comparison to the 2019 and 2014 elections.
While the BJP had a vote share of 33.2% in 2014, it increased to 36.49% in 2019 and further to 39.94% in 2024, despite facing anti-incumbency. In comparison, the Congress recorded a higher improvement in its vote share, rising from 20.6% in 2014 to 39.09% in 2024. Together, both these national parties cornered nearly 80% of the total votes polled in 2024 assembly elections.
In comparison, regional party Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) which split from the Indian Nationalist Lok Dal (INLD) in 2019, registered a big drop in its vote share along with not managing to win a single seat. In comparison to 14.8% in 2019, in 2014 it recorded only 0.9%.
The INLD, which won 2 seats, recorded an increase in its vote share in comparison to 2019, increasing from 2.44% to 4.14%. The AAP, which also failed to win a seat, recorded an increase in vote share from 0.48% in 2019 to 1.79% in 2024.
The BSP on the other hand, also recorded a dip in its vote share falling from 4.21% in 2019 to 1.82% in 2024.
BJP and INC vote share (seats won) in all seats in last three elections
While the difference between the Congress and the BJP in terms of their vote share in the 2024 Haryana assembly elections was a mere 0.85%, both parties recorded an increase from the 2019 assembly elections in their vote shares but a dip in comparison to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
In the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the Congress – which did not win a single seat in the 2019 parliamentary elections – contained the BJP to 5 seats by winning the other five. Along with improving its performance in terms of seats, it also recorded an increase in its vote share. While the Congress recorded a vote share of 28.08% in the 2019 assembly elections when it won 31 seats, its vote share increased to 43.67% in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections when it won 5 of the ten seats, and subsequently to 39.09% in the 2024 assembly elections when it won 37 seats.
While the BJP too charted an increased vote share from the 2019 assembly elections to the 2024 polls, its spike was lower in comparison to the Congress’. In the 2019 assembly elections, the BJP won 40 seats and registered a vote share of 36.49%. This increased to 48 seats and 39.94% vote share in the 2024 assembly elections. But its vote share was lower in comparison to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, where it won 5 seats but recorded a vote share of 46.11%.
In the 2019 elections, the BJP won 40 seats in the 90-member assembly and formed the government in coalition with the JJP.
Main parties’ cumulative vote share
The trends show that only established parties are increasingly being seen by a large majority of voters as preferred representatives, especially after 2014. Both anti-incumbency votes and those in support of the incumbents are being cornered by traditional parties than any other new entrants.
Distribution of third candidates’ vote share
| Segment | Seats | BJP losses | Congress losses |
| 20% | 12 | 6 | 8 |
Such constituencies likely witnessed fragmentation, possibly due to rebel candidates – particularly those from the INC who ran as independents – causing vote splits and potential losses for their former parties.
In key seats like Ambala Cantt., Pundri, Ballabgarh, and Tigaon, Congress rebels came in second place, pushing the official Congress candidates to third or even lower positions. In other constituencies such as Uchana Kalan, Badhra, and Gohana, rebel candidates won more votes than the victory margin, contributing to Congress’ losses.
For example, in Ballabgarh, the official INC candidate Parag Sharma finished fourth with 8,674 votes (5.92% vote share). Similarly, in Tigaon, INC’s Rohit Nagar came third with 21,656 votes (10.63% vote share). In Badhra, Somveer Ghasola, an independent and former Congress member, secured 26,730 votes (18.55% vote share), finishing third, while Sultan Jadaula from INC in Pundri also came third with 26,341 votes (19.37% vote share).
A substantial proportion of third-place candidates garnered between 0% and 5% of the vote share. This indicates that many of these candidates had little impact on the election’s outcome. Such candidates likely represent smaller, lesser-known parties, independents, or those with limited local influence.
Data by Pavan Korada.
Graphs by Pavan Korada and Elisha Vermani.
Text by Pavan Korada, Sravasti Dasgupta and Ajoy Ashirwad Mahaprashasta.