New Delhi: A major plank of the INDIA bloc’s campaign in the 2024 Lok Sabha election is the promise of greater representation to backward castes, Dalits and Muslims. However, the ticket distribution of the Opposition alliance in the critical western region of Uttar Pradesh – which votes in the first three phases of the election – indicates that the dominant “upper castes” still enjoy a large share in candidate selection while Muslims have paid the price of the Opposition’s experiments.
West UP – comprising the sugar-cane rich Jat belts, the prosperous Braj region, the thriving National Capital Region and Rohilkhand, known for pockets of dense Muslim population – is politically, culturally and linguistically distinct from other parts of the state. Since 2014, the BJP has dominated electoral politics here, riding on communal sentiments triggered by the 2013 Muzaffarnagar communal violence and polarisation of non-Yadav communities.
The Wire analysed 24 Lok Sabha seats in west UP and found that the main Opposition alliance – the Congress and the Samajwadi Party – has reduced the share of Muslim and OBC candidates but increased the number of tickets for Hindu “upper castes” and Dalits, if we compare the figures with the Opposition’s Mahagathbandhan in 2019.
While the SP and the Congress alliance is the main challenger to the BJP in 2024, in 2019, the grand alliance of SP, Bahujan Samaj Party and the Rashtriya Lok Dal was the combined Opposition force.
In the first three phases of election, voting will be held on 26 out of the 80 seats in UP. These constituencies will vote on April 19, April 26 and May 7. It is an undeniable fact that even in general elections, which are becoming more presidential in nature with time, the caste of the candidate or opponent plays a major role in determining the final outcome on the seat.
For analysis, we have only used 24 seats as all the parties are yet to declare their candidates in two constituencies – Mainpuri and Firozabad.
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In these 24 seats, INDIA bloc has fielded five Muslims, eight from OBC communities, six from UC communities and five Dalits. In comparison, in 2019 the SP-BSP-RLD alliance had fielded seven Muslims, nine OBCs, four UCs and four Dalits. In 2019, the Opposition could only win seven of these 24 seats.
Between 2019 and 2024, the main Opposition alliance has dropped two Muslim candidates; fielded one less OBC but increased the overall share of non-dominant backward castes and reduced tickets of Gurjars and Jats; given two more tickets to UCs and fielded an more Dalit in a constituency not reserved for any community.
The SP under Akhilesh Yadav is fighting this election under the slogan of PDA – Pichda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak – which signals the mobilisation of OBCs, Dalits and Muslims, while isolating the UCs, who are believed to be more loyal to the BJP. In the 18 seats that the SP is contesting out of these 24, it has fielded 14 from PDA communities – three Muslims, seven OBCs and four Dalits. The Congress is fighting the other six seats.
In many seats, the SP-led alliance has experimented with unconventional caste equations. In Moradabad, won by a Muslim candidate 10 times in the last 12 elections since 1977, the SP played a big gamble by dropping its sitting MP S.T. Hasan and fielding in his place Ruchi Veera, an ex-MLA from Bijnor belonging to the Bania community. This has led to resentment among a section of Muslims who feel that the party should have fielded someone from their community amid their falling representation in power. In Meerut, too, where the Opposition alliance had fielded a Muslim in 2019, the SP has fielded a Dalit, Sunita Verma, this time, as part of an experiment to woo the Dalit community.
Verma is among the two Jatavs fielded by INDIA bloc in west UP. The other three Dalits fielded by the alliance are from the Dhobi and Valmiki (two candidates) sub-castes. Compared to 2019, the SP-alliance has dropped two Jatavs and increased the representation of non-Jatav Dalits by three.
A major reason for the BJP’s victories in UP since 2014 has been the polarisation of non-Yadav OBCs in its favour. The INDIA bloc has tried to challenge the BJP by fielding more non-Yadav OBCs.
The INDIA bloc has only one Jat candidate – Harendra Malik in Muzaffarnagar – although it had initially planned on nominating two more Jats in west UP, the same number as in 2019. The Jat candidate in Baghpat was replaced at the last minute with a Brahmin, an unconventional choice. Interestingly, the BSP, fighting alone this time, has fielded a Gurjar in Baghpat as against the NDA’s Jat.
In Mathura, the Opposition’s probable candidate, boxer Vijendra Singh, also a Jat, switched over to the BJP before he could file his nomination. In his place, the Opposition has fielded a candidate from the Gaderia community, traditionally associated with herding goats. He will face the BJP’s sitting MP and Bollywood star Hema Malini, who though born a Tamil Brahmin politically identifies as a Jat through her marriage to superstar Dharmendra. The BSP has fielded a Jat, a retired IRS officer with Hindutva antecedents, potentially complicating the matter for Malini.
The switch of the RLD to the National Democratic Alliance has forced the Opposition alliance to re-think its caste arithmetic. The RLD of Chaudhary Jayant Singh commands support among large sections of Jats and following his switch, the Opposition is banking on the support of the other less dominant OBCs.
The INDIA bloc has also fielded only one Gurjar, in Gautam Buddha Nagar. Like Jats, Gurjars are a dominant and prosperous, land-owning agrarian caste.
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In Etah, the Opposition has fielded a candidate from the Shakya OBC community while in Aonla, the candidate is a Maurya. Shakya and Maurya are inter-related communities associated with horticulture. In Pilibhit, where equations have changed after the sitting BJP MP Varun Gandhi was dropped, the SP has fielded a former legislator from Bareilly belonging to the Kurmi community.
The Kurmis are a major OBC caste associated with farming.
The INDIA bloc has fielded two candidates each from the Brahmin, Thakur-Rajput and Bania communities.
The NDA’s caste arithmetic is primarily based on the consolidation of non-Yadav OBCs and UCs.
In these 24 seats that were analysed, half of the BJP candidates belong to the non-Yadav OBC communities. The other eight are UC while four are Dalits (all on reserved seats). The BJP, in line with its majoritarian Hindutva politics, has not nominated a single Muslim.
A jati-wise distribution of the BJP-RLD’s candidate selection shows that their alliance has fielded four Jats, two each from the Gurjar, Lodh and Shakya/Saini communities and one each from the Kurmi and Kashyap castes.
However, the party has been facing dissent from the Saini, Tyagi and Rajput communities who feel under-represented in ticket distribution despite heavily voting for it in the past few elections. On April 7, Rajput groups gathered in large numbers in Saharanpur under the Kshatriya Swabhimaan Mahakumbh and declared that their community would punish the BJP by supporting candidates best placed to defeat the ruling party in the election. A simmering issue seems to be the emerging rivalry between the Rajputs (UC) and the Gurjars (OBC) over the legacy of 9th century ruler Mihir Bhoj. The Rajput groups feel that the BJP government had appeased Gurjar leaders who insulted them.
Thakur Puran Singh, founder president of the Kisan Mazdoor Sanghathan, who led the gathering, said after the mahakumbh, “We have decided to defeat the BJP in the entire country. We will support whoever is defeating the BJP.”
If this sentiment holds till voting day, it could complicate matters for the BJP in Ghaziabad, Gautam Buddha Nagar and Kairana, where the BSP has fielded Rajput candidates as against the Bania, Brahmin and Gurjar candidates of the saffron party. The BSP could also prove to be a bigger spoiler for the Opposition alliance as Mayawati has fielded Muslim candidates in Amroha, Sambhal, Rampur, Pilibhit, Aonla, Saharanpur and Moradabad seats in the first three phases.
