Bengaluru: Known for its diverse demographics and intricate socio-political dynamics, Karnataka consistently serves as a battleground for political supremacy. The state’s politics, influenced by regional identities, caste affiliations, and historical alliances, significantly mould electoral outcomes. As the southern state braces for another electoral cycle, the parties in the fray are attempting to shift voter preferences and relying on strategic manoeuvres.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has forged an alliance with H.D. Devegowda’s Janata Dal (Secular) [JD(S)]. The BJP, with a stronghold among the Lingayat community in central Karnataka, aims to consolidate its position, while the JD(S), influential among the Vokkaliga community in southern Karnataka, seeks to maintain its sway. Meanwhile, the Indian National Congress (INC) relies on chief minister Siddaramaiah’s popularity among the Kuruba community and the organisational prowess of Deputy chief minister D.K. Shivakumar to challenge the coalition.
With 28 parliamentary seats at stake, Karnataka’s electoral trends differ between Parliamentary and state assembly elections. While non-government parties have historically secured second terms at the state level, the BJP remains a formidable force in Lok Sabha elections. Leaders like B.S. Yeddyurappa (BJP), Mallikarjun Kharge (INC), and Devegowda [JD(S)] wield significant influence, forming social coalitions based on local roots and cultural knowledge, while strategically courting support from dominant castes such as Lingayats, Vokkaligas, and Kuruba.
Following the Congress’s victory in the recent assembly election, the upcoming general election serves as a litmus test for its governance and as a pivotal moment for BJP state chief B.Y. Vijayendra, amid internal dissent. Additionally, it poses a survival challenge for the JD(S).
Understanding past electoral trends
Reflecting on past electoral trends, Karnataka’s political landscape has witnessed fluctuating fortunes for major players. The BJP’s dominance in 2009 under B.S. Yeddyurappa’s leadership contrasted with the Congress’s struggle. Internal strife within the BJP characterised the 2014 elections, allowing the Congress to make gains despite a national wave propelled by Narendra Modi. Lingayat support remained pivotal, with the BJP’s stronghold in northern regions and Congress’s gains in certain southern and coastal areas.
In 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Karnataka saw a resounding BJP comeback, credited to national trends, Yediyurappa’s leadership, and effective messaging. The INC and JD(S) alliance faltered, with the saffron party securing substantial support from the Lingayat community.
Current trends: A shift in political dynamics
With aspirations set on achieving “400 Paar” (above 400 seats) in the impending elections, the BJP has strategically honed its focus on Karnataka, the lone state in the southern region where it envisions substantial gains. By nominating prominent figures such as former chief minister Basavaraj Bommai from his stronghold constituency Haveri and Yaduveer Krishnadatta Chamaraja Wadiyar of the Mysuru royal family in Mysuru, the party not only aims for victories in these areas but also seeks to extend its influence across neighbouring regions.
Also read: Karnataka: BJP Divided, Congress May Spring a Surprise in Lok Sabha Polls
Furthermore, the BJP has strategically re-nominated former minister of social welfare B. Sriramulu, a prominent Dalit leader, from the Bellary constituency. They have also given ticket to B.S. Yediyurappa’s son B.Y. Raghavendra in Shivamogga, a bastion of their family. This calculated deployment of key figures is a proven tactic by the BJP to counteract anti-incumbency sentiments and replicate previous electoral successes, akin to their strategy in Madhya Pradesh where influential central leaders were deployed.
Capitalising on the momentum generated by the inauguration of the Ram Mandir, the BJP is leveraging the “Ram Mandir” factor to its advantage in Karnataka, particularly in the coastal belt where there has been a surge in devotees visiting the Ayodhya shrine. Additionally, the party is addressing pressing issues such as the water crisis in Bengaluru and concerns regarding law and order, exemplified by the recent “Rameshwar cafe blast”.
In a strategic manoeuvre, the BJP has formed an alliance with the JD(S) to target voters in southern Karnataka, particularly in Mandya and Hassan parliamentary constituencies, with the goal of consolidating Vokkaliga votes in other regions.
In response to the BJP’s formidable line-up, the Congress has fielded influential candidates like Anand Gaddadevaramath, a Lingayat, against Bommai, and Geetha Shivarajkumar, wife of Kannada actor Shivarajkumar, against Raghavendra in Shivamogga. Additionally, D.K Suresh, MP and brother of deputy chief minister and D.K. Shivakumar, will contest again from Bengaluru Rural constituency, aiming to build on past electoral successes. Another prominent name is, former Jayanagar MLA Soumya Reddy from Bengaluru South against incumbent MP Tejasvi Surya and former MP Jayaprakash Hegde from Udupi- Chikmagalur seat.
Focusing on local issues and highlighting the chief minister’s efforts against perceived discrimination by the Centre, the Congress seeks significant gains in Karnataka, acknowledging its pivotal role in the national tally and aiming to maximise its seat share.
Challenges and opportunities ahead
For the BJP, maintaining the allegiance of the influential Lingayat community while simultaneously expanding its support base remains of utmost significance. Moreover, ensuring a seamless transition of traditional votes from the JD(S) is critical for the National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA’s) electoral triumphs. A notable advantage lies in the party’s formidable leadership at the national level, furnishing a sturdy framework for its campaign strategies.
The BJP is currently contending with internal turmoil as K.S. Eshwarappa, a former deputy chief minister, has announced his candidacy against Raghavendra in the Shivamogga constituency. Eshwarappa’s decision follows his son’s failure to secure the ticket for the Haveri constituency.
Conversely, the Congress grapples with leadership uncertainties at the national echelon, yet to announce a prime ministerial candidate. Despite its endeavours to harness regional sentiments and tackle local issues, the party must prioritise consolidating its established vote bank, encompassing the Kuruba, Scheduled Caste (SC), and Muslim communities.
Meanwhile, for the JD(S), the choice to align with the BJP presents a dual edged blade of possibilities and perils. While forging an alliance with a potent force may offer tactical benefits, there exists a tangible peril of estranging its core support base and eroding its distinctive political identity in the process. Striking a delicate balance amidst these dynamics will be pivotal for the party’s electoral prospects.
As the countdown to the election begins, navigating these intricate challenges and seizing strategic openings will delineate the electoral trajectories and subsequent triumph at the ballot box for each party.
Aamir Shakil is a political researcher at ETG.
