The political landscape of Maharashtra’s Mumbai-Konkan region is set to witness an intense contest between the two Shiv Sena factions – Shiv Sena (Shinde) and Shiv Sena (UBT) – as assembly elections approach.
This region – comprising Mumbai City, Mumbai Suburban, Thane, Palghar, Raigad, Ratnagiri, and Sindhudurg – holds tremendous political significance with its 75 assembly constituencies and 12 parliamentary seats. Known for its scenic beauty, the area has long been a Shiv Sena stronghold, deeply rooted in the migration of coastal residents to Mumbai, a connection that Shiv Sena founder Balasaheb Thackeray cultivated over decades.
In recent years, Maharashtra’s political terrain has seen seismic shifts. After the Shiv Sena split into two factions, one led by chief minister Eknath Shinde and the other by former chief minister Uddhav Thackeray, competition for dominance over Mumbai-Konkan has intensified. Both factions seek to establish their authority, capitalising on the Shiv Sena’s historical influence in the region.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has also expanded its footprint in Mumbai-Konkan. Initially, the BJP allied with a unified Shiv Sena and later formed an alliance with the Shinde-led faction. Through this alliance, the BJP aims to strengthen its presence in the region.
In the recent parliamentary elections, the BJP-led Mahayuti alliance performed well in the Mumbai-Konkan region, winning 7 of the 12 seats. The BJP secured the Palghar, Ratnagiri Sindhudurg and Mumbai North constituencies, while the Shinde-led Shiv Sena won seats in Mumbai North West, Thane, and Kalyan. Additionally, the Ajit Pawar-led faction of the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), another Mahayuti ally, claimed the Raigad constituency.
On the other hand, the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) alliance, comprising the Indian National Congress (INC), Shiv Sena (UBT), and the NCP won 5 parliamentary seats. The Uddhav Thackeray faction secured Mumbai North East, Mumbai North West, Mumbai South, and Mumbai South Central constituencies, while an MVA ally claimed the Bhiwandi seat. Although Shiv Sena (UBT) maintained its urban influence, it faced a significant loss in the Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg seat, a former stronghold, where BJP’s Narayan Rane won.
As the upcoming assembly elections approach on November 20, key battles are expected to shape the region’s political future.
One of the most high-profile battlegrounds in the assembly elections is Mumbai City’s Worli constituency. Shiv Sena (UBT) has fielded incumbent MLA Aaditya Thackeray, while the Shinde-led faction has fielded Milind Deora, a former Congress leader and minister. Also in the fray is Raj Thackeray’s Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), which has fielded its general secretary, Sandeep Deshpande.
In the 2019 assembly elections, Aaditya Thackeray won his debut election from Worli by a substantial margin of 68,000 votes. However, recent developments suggest a more challenging race ahead. During the 2024 parliamentary elections, Uddhav faction’s candidate Arvind Sawant narrowly led the Worli assembly segment by only 6,715 votes, raising concerns for Aaditya, especially as Deora, a seasoned politician, commands considerable influence here. The presence of MNS further complicates the situation as the party has a notable support base within the constituency.
Another closely watched constituency is Mahim in Mumbai City, where a generational clash within Maharashtra’s political families is set to take place. Amit Thackeray, Raj Thackeray’s son, is making his political debut here, representing the MNS. He faces Sada Sarvankar, the incumbent MLA from Shiv Sena (Shinde), and Mahesh Baliram Sarvankar from Shiv Sena (UBT).
Mahim is symbolically significant for Shiv Sena, given its proximity to Shivaji Park, a key site for the party’s activities. Initially seen as a safe launch for Amit Thackeray, the situation became complicated when Sada Sarvankar refused to withdraw his nomination despite lobbying by senior BJP leaders. Reports suggest Sarvankar’s willingness to step aside hinged on Raj Thackeray withdrawing his candidates contesting against Mahayuti allies in Mumbai, a condition that was not met. “The decision to continue has set the stage for a compelling three way contest in Mahim,” said Shruti Sinha, a political researcher based in Mumbai
In Sindhudurg district’s Kankavali constituency, Nitesh Rane, son of former chief minister Narayan Rane, is seeking a third term as MLA. Known for his loyalty to his father’s legacy and aggressive campaigning style, Nitesh has recently drawn attention for statements directed at the Muslim community. It is a controversial stance that could resonate with the predominantly Maratha electorate. Shiv Sena (UBT) has fielded Sandesh Parkar belonging to the Vaishya Vani community which is traditionally BJP-aligned, but he doesn’t seem to be giving a formidable challenge to Nitesh Rane.
Adding to the intrigue is independent Muslim candidate Banda Nawaz Khani, who criticises Rane’s communal rhetoric and aims to consolidate the Muslim vote. While the Rane family’s dominance in Kankavali is deeply entrenched, a surprise victory by the opposition would be a major political upset.
Adjacent to Kankavali is the Kudal constituency, where Narayan Rane’s elder son, Nilesh Rane, is re-entering politics on a Shiv Sena (Shinde) ticket after a brief hiatus. The incumbent
MLA, Vaibhav Naik of Shiv Sena (UBT), has held the seat comfortably, but Nilesh Rane’s return signals a renewed contest in this family bastion. Previously a BJP member, Nilesh now represents the Shiv Sena (Shinde) faction.
The Ratnagiri constituency presents another high-profile battle with incumbent MLA and minister Uday Samant seeking his fifth term. Samant is a well-known face in the Konkan region and his local reputation poses a challenge to his opponent Bal Mane from Shiv Sena (UBT). Mane, a former BJP member, is reportedly drawing support from BJP cadres, but dislodging Samant will be a difficult task given his long-standing influence in Ratnagiri.
The Mumbai-Konkan region is witnessing not only a rivalry between Shiv Sena factions but also the emergence of multi-layered competition, with active participation from the BJP and MNS. For the BJP, allying with the Shinde faction has reinforced its position in key constituencies, while the Shiv Sena (UBT) continues to resonate with its traditional base in Mumbai. Each party’s moves in the Mumbai-Konkan belt reveal a nuanced interplay of regionalism, legacy politics and strategic alliances.
The legacy of Balasaheb Thackeray still looms large over the region, making this contest not only about political control but also about upholding a symbolic connection that resonates with the voters’ sense of regional identity. As polling day approaches, political analysts and residents alike are keenly observing whether the established power dynamics will hold or shift in favour of emerging leaders and parties. The outcome in these constituencies is poised to significantly impact the broader political landscape in Maharashtra, determining which Shiv Sena faction, and which alliance, will ultimately secure a foothold in the region Balasaheb once unified.
Aamir Shakil is a political researcher based in Delhi.
