Is BJP Unstoppable in the Guwahati LS Seat? Congress's Mira Borthakur Poses Conspicuous Challenges

Guwahati: ‘Juz Ekhon Hobo Bapu Juz Ekhon Hobo’ (There will be a fight my friend, there will be a fight this time), an Assamese song by the popular composer Manas Robin reverberates in the campaign trails of Mira Borthakur Goswami, the Congress candidate for the Guwahati Lok Sabha seat, quintessentially representing the spirit of the song.

With her distinguishable campaign styles filled with consistency and rigour, a fiery Borthakur, who had quit the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) some years ago after accusing a senior party leader of sexual harassment and rose to the position of the president of the state Mahila Congress, appears to be ready to challenge the inexorability of the ruling BJP in Guwahati.

A formidable woman candidate in the Guwahati seat is nothing new though. Since 2009, the constituency has been pocketed by two other women for the BJP – Bijoya Chakravarty, and the sitting MP Queen Oja, who has been dropped by the party in these elections in favour of another woman candidate – Bijuli Kalita Medhi.

In the 2019 contest too, the Guwahati Lok Sabha constituency had seen an electoral battle between two women candidates of the Congress and the BJP – Ojha pitted against Congress’s state spokesperson Bobbeeta Sharma.

There is no doubt that Guwahati, having been won by the ruling party with margins of three and four lakhs in the past two consecutive terms, makes it a tough fight for Borthakur. The last time the Congress pocketed the seat was in 2009 when senior party leader Kirip Chaliha famously defeated Assam’s cultural and literary doyen Bhupen Hazarika contesting in a BJP ticket.

Also read: By Visiting Assam and Avoiding Manipur, Modi Proves Again That He Only Cares for a Looming Election

More of ‘close interactions’ than extravaganzas

This time around, even before Congress came out with its final list of candidates, Mira Borthakur was visible with her campaign. In early March, she was seen campaigning on the city buses of Guwahati, appealing to commuters to cast their ‘Bibek Vote’ (conscience vote) in the upcoming general elections, while highlighting pressing issues like the CAA (Citizenship Amendment Act), price hikes, and unemployment. After the Congress finally declared her candidature, Mira has fervently continued interacting with people on the streets.

The BJP denying a ticket to Oja has certainly caught the common voters of Guwahati by surprise. Though Bijuli Kalita Medhi has been a BJP activist for over a decade, she seemed a political lightweight in comparison to Borthakur. Medhi is the state vice-president of the BJP, and also headed the Mahila Morcha in Assam.

“We haven’t heard the name of Bijuli Kalita Medhi, but we know Mira Borthakur as she often appears in television debates and also protests. But Bijuli Kalita Medhi is a BJP candidate, so she will have more resources and power backing. So, there will be a riveting contest this time,” a voter told this writer after Medhi’s name was announced by the BJP.

Known across Assam for her plainspeak in TV debates, Borthakur was seen by Guwahati voters also in the 2021 assembly polls when she unsuccessfully contested from the Guwahati West seat against Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) candidate Ramendra Narayan Kalita.

Though in these elections, Borthakur had hit the roads first, much has changed since. Medhi’s campaign is backed by the solid support of her party’s formidable organisational strength as well as the national leadership. Union home minister Amit Shah took part in a crowded 2-kilometre-long road show in Guwahati on April 29.

In comparison, Guwahati’s voters haven’t witnessed such extravaganzas in Borthakur’s campaign. What sets hers apart, however, is an engaging style, characterized by one-on-one interactions with common people.

On May 2, five days before the Lok Sabha constituency goes to vote, she was spotted early in the morning at the crowded Beltola Bazar area, where the vendors found themselves in an ugly situation. As Borthakur mentioned in her live video from the spot, chief minister Himanta Biswa Sarma was scheduled to participate in an election campaign in that area, resulting in the vendors being cleared out of the marketplace.

“In this bustling market of Beltola, local vendors, including women from nearby villages, come to sell their vegetables. Disallowing them will cause them to incur losses,” Borthakur had said in her live video.

What seemed like a protest-cum-election campaign, Borthakur has, but, done something similar many times during these campaigns, even when the election fever was incubating – be it standing with the protesting Anwanwadi workers or distressed people of ‘Silsako Eviction’.

In one of Borthakur’s most popular videos from the entrance of the office of the executive engineer (agriculture) in Guwahati recently, she pointed out a huge campaign banner of the BJP seeking votes from people. She posed a categorical question – “How come a government office holds such a campaign banner of a party?”

This line of campaigning by Borthakur certainly gives her an electoral edge, lacing her public image with that of an unwavering activist-politician standing with people’s issues.

Even just four days ahead of polling, she was seen distributing pamphlets to the daily ferry (ship) commuters early morning by the Brahmaputra with an appeal for their ‘conscience vote’ while introducing herself as the Opposition candidate. “It is quite an unusual campaign. No candidate comes out in such a way. It gives us a feeling that someone has come to campaign for a programme or protest on an issue,” one such commuter told The Wire.

Substantiating it, Congress senior spokesperson for Assam, Gopal Sharma, told The Wire that Borthakur has taken part in meetings at several areas under the Guwahati Lok Sabha seat, addressing the local issues of the people, while promising to resolve those if she wins and if a Congress government comes to power. With this strategy, she has travelled to almost all the parts of the large parliamentary constituency and was seen taking part in some large gatherings.

Civil society’s campaigns

In an unprecedented move, Guwahati-based well-known civil society organisation, the Assam Nagarik Samaj (ANS), was seen coming out for street campaigns in the Guwahati city and nearby areas in her support.

Led by independent Rajya Sabha MP from Assam and noted journalist Ajit Kumar Bhuyan, Paresh Malakar of the ANS was seen mobilising prominent personalities of Assam for her campaigns. This included public intellectual Hiren Gohain, prominent Guwahati high court lawyer Santanu Borthakur, and Indranee Dutta, former director of OKD Institute of Social Change and Development, a respected local think tank.

Additionally, Bharat Jodo Abhiyan (BJA), Assam, was seen campaigning for Borthakur as well.

ANS secretary Paresh Malakar, clearing the position of the organisation, said: “We are not members of the Congress, but we are campaigning for upholding the Constitution and its foundational principles of democracy and secularism, which are under grave threat in BJP’s regime. This perhaps is the last chance for the people of our country to protect those values and we, therefore, urge everyone to vote for the Opposition. Moreover, direct involvement of civil society strengthens the democratic process.”

The Wire captured ANS-BJA’s campaigns involving elderly individuals in Guwahati’s streets, corners, and marketplaces.

Issues and dynamics that may favour Mira Borthakur

Comprising Kamrup, Kamrup Metropolitan, and Goalpara districts, the Guwahati Lok Sabha constituency underwent reshaping post-delimitation in Assam as well. In its current form, the Lok Sabha seat begins from Dimoria of Kamrup (Metro) district in the east of the map, encompassing Guwahati city, and extending westward to Goalpara district.

“The constituency is very diverse in its demographics – the Dimoria area has Karbi, Tiwa, Bodo, Bengali communities, along with caste Hindus, while the city is cosmopolitan in the true sense which includes a large number of Hindi speakers, considered a voter base for the BJP. Towards Goalpara, it is populated by the Rabhas, the Garos, caste Hindu Assamese, along with a substantial minority Muslim belt. The Guwahati seat has over 5.30 lakh Muslim voters out of a total of around 21 lakh voters,” said Gopal Sharma.

Opposition partner RD (Raijor Dal), AJP (Assam Jatiya Parishad) and the Left parties are campaigning for Borthakur too as their joint candidate.

RD president and MLA Akhil Gogoi has walked with Borthakur in the hill areas of Guwahati city to consolidate votes of his party and for her. There have been intense movements in the past, mainly led by Gogoi for providing ‘Myadi Patta’ (a kind of legal right of land holding) to the hill dwellers of Guwahati. In one of those protests in 2014, a 45-year-old resident, Pranab Bodo, had immolated himself. That incident had shaken the entire state. The BJP had promised that it would provide them ‘patta’ if they come to power but it remains a distant hope for the residents.

Dhaijjya Konwar, general secretary of Raijor Dal, told The Wire: “During these campaigns, we got to know the issues of the Myadi Patta, drinking water crisis, price hike are the pertinent ones for the hill dwellers of the city. A considerable population with nearly 3.5 lakh voters, the hill dwellers mainly comprise tribals including Misings, Karbis, Bodos. The BJP had once promised them ‘pattas’, and as it remains unfulfilled, people in the Guwahati hills of Dakhin Gaon, Batahghuli, Kahilipara, Lalmati, Panjabari, Hengerabari fear eviction.”

“In addition, there is an acute water crisis in these areas. As a majority of them belong to the working class and are living hand to mouth, the skyrocketing prices of daily essentials have affected their lives considerably. We see a good opportunity for the Opposition candidate in getting support from this section in the hope that their lives would see a change with the change of the government.”

Another RD leader and senior spokesperson Rasel Hussain explained what issues the Dimoria area is facing.

“One of the prominent issues there is the demand for autonomy (autonomous council) for the Amri Karbi people (including the Karbis living in the plains). Their longstanding demand for autonomy in the plains, similar to that in Karbi Anglong hills, has been put on hold. The BJP has not fulfilled those demands.

“There is another crucial issue,” he continued.

“The Dimoria assembly seat is a newly formed one post-delimitation, and has been reserved for the Scheduled Castes. With this move, the Karbis feel that their representation in the assembly is in crisis. Dimoria should have been an ST reserved seat,” he added.

Apart from the local issues, CAA, unemployment, prepaid electric meters, and price rise have ignited the ire of the people and are likely to influence voting this time, he claimed.

Moving westward from Dimoria, in the Guwahati city area (Kamrup Metropolitan district), the basic issues raised by Borthakur will likely challenge the BJP’s extravagant campaigns on the theme of ‘Abki bar 400 paar’. Some political observers feel that there is an undercurrent of discontent surrounding issues such as the CAA, unemployment, electoral bonds, and corruption among the Assamese middle class.

Moving further westward, in the Kamrup district, a major portion falls under the Rabha Hasong Autonomous Council, which begins just a few kilometers from Guwahati city.

The Wire spoke to Pakhiraj Rabha near Chandubi, a famous tourist spot centered around the historic Chandubi Beel (a natural lake).

Rabha has been associated with preserving the area’s biodiversity and forest, and was spotted up in arms against broadening the roads there.

He told The Wire, “The youth in our area are supporting Mira Borthakur this time. She came here earlier as well. We think many Rabha youth will support her this time. The videos of (social media influencer) Dhruv Rathee and journalists Abhisar Sharma and Ravish Kumar have considerable influence on the youth section and they are thinking about the issues that the country is tormented with at the moment. The Garos, especially the Christians, will support Mira Borthakur this time.”

Pakhiraj Rabha’s comment on the Christian Garos was substantiated by Pronab Rangsha, the Gaonburha (village head) of Ranibari Christian village. He told The Wire, “Garos have a sizeable population of nearly 50,000 in Guwahati seat. I think a majority of them, especially the Christians, will support the Congress this time but there are supporters of the BJP as well here. So, it’s divided.”

The Muslim voters, a considerable section, in mainly Chamaria, Chayagon, Boko areas, are crucial for Borthakur’s win.

Positives for the BJP

Local observers told The Wire that it is not going to be a cakewalk for Borthakur. They say that BJP’s Medhi is the most likely choice for a major chunk of non-Assamese speaking population of the constituency, including Bengalis, Hindi-speaking people, and others in Guwahati.

Although a section of the youth from the Rabha community is supporting Borthakur, the ARSU (All Rabha Students’ Union) has lent its support to the BJP.

Kamaleswar told The Wire that Rabhas have over a lakh votes in the Guwahati parliamentary constituency. The reason for their support for the BJP, as per Kamaleswar, is that the BJP-led central government has ‘considered’ the demand to include the Rabha community in the Sixth Schedule of the Constitution, similar to the Bodos of Assam.

Add to this the BJP’s formidable support base among the lower-middle-class Assamese Hindu voters, primarily hinging on freebies like the state’s Arunodoy scheme, in addition to the party’s generous donations to temples and Vaishnava Namghars. Visits to such prayer halls and temples are part of Medhi’s campaign.

Recently, former state chief minister and Union minister Sarbananda Sonowal addressed a large gathering at Chamaria, which has a sizeable presence of Muslim voters. The area is also a contested space centred around the Chamaria Satra (a Vaishnavite monastery). Chief minister Sarma has also done several campaign meetings for Medhi, too, in the presence of a sizeable crowd.

Considering it all, Borthakur is not likely to have it easy when voting takes place on May 7. However, what still stands out is that Borthakur’s strident campaigns have not made it easy for Medhi either.

The author is a Guwahati-based independent journalist.

This article, first published at 8 pm on May 5, 2024, was republished at 2 pm on May 6, 2024.