Now that the dust has settled, it has become clear that the Speaker candidate of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) would be from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Many political observers dub this as the abject surrender of NDA allies, Janata Dal (United) (JD(U)) and Telugu Desam Party (TDP). What explains such a ‘surrender’?
Not to speak about important portfolios even the demand of Special Category Status raised by both the chief ministers in the past had not been made a pre-condition for lending support to Narendra Modi.
When the Lok Sabha election result was out on June 4, it was expected that they would seek their own pound of flesh, that is, demand important portfolios and even the post of Speaker, as in 1999 when they both were constituents of the NDA. But they agreed on much less.
Naidu and Nitish are shadows of their past
There is no denying the fact that the BJP has grown weak after the recent Lok Sabha poll, yet it is also a fact that both Chandrababu Naidu and Nitish Kumar are just shadows of their past. The two parties may have won 16 and 12 seats respectively in the Lok Sabha election, but that is not too much for them to take bold decisions. They also know that they got so many seats because of their alliance with the BJP and other parties such as Jan Sena in Andhra Pradesh and Lok Janashakti Party in Bihar.
Naidu and Nitish are in their mid-70s and not in the best of health, especially the latter. So, to expect some radical decisions from them at this point would be demanding too much.
Besides, there are some other factors which prevent them from immediately jumping to the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) camp. In the 1999 Lok Sabha election, the BJP alone won only 182 seats, which was 90 short of the majority. This time the figure is 240, just 32 less than the halfway mark.
Thus, the Atal Bihari Vajpayee government was more dependent on TDP and JD(U). TDP won 29 seats and its partner BJP seven in the undivided Andhra Pradesh, which used to send 42 MPs in the Lok Sabha. The TDP got the post of Speaker as well as important ministerial berths.
Also read: Naidu, Nitish Back Modi Ignoring the Pain of All Those Who Have Suffered During His 10-Year Tenure
Bihar scenario
In undivided Bihar, which then had 54 seats, the NDA won 41 seats – 18 by JD(U) and 23 by BJP.
Here it needs to be understood that what we now call JD(U) was actually Samata Party and other breakaway factions which later came to be known by this name. It then had stalwarts like George Fernandes, Nitish Kumar, Sharad Yadav and Ram Vilas Paswan and all got important portfolios in the Vajpayee cabinet between 1999 and 2004.
Today neither Naidu, whose party won 16 Lok Sabha seats, nor Nitish, whose JD(U) bagged 12 seats, wanted any of their party MPs to get important portfolios. Unlike in the past, they lack a grip on their respective parties which they once enjoyed. They fear that once the stature of these Union ministers grows, they will emerge more powerful within the respective parties.
So, when R.C.P Singh was made Union steel minister by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in July 2021, Nitish became very uncomfortable. He first got him removed from the post of national president of Janata Dal (United), then refused to renominate him for Rajya Sabha when his term expired in July 2022. A humiliated Singh, once Nitish’s Man Friday, was compelled to resign.
Bifurcation of Andhra
If Nitish is feeling insecure from within, Naidu too does not have the same political clout as earlier. He is not the lone master of rump Andhra Pradesh. The BJP won three Lok Sabha seats, while the Jana Sena emerged victorious in two seats. The 2024 election has also made it clear that Pawan Kalyan of Jana Sena has the potential to emerge more influential leader in the years to come than Nara Lokesh, son of Chandrababu Naidu, whom he is grooming.
Janasena chief Pawan Kalyan after meeting former chief minister N. Chandrababu Naidu at Rajamahendravaram central jail on Thursday, September 14. TDP leaders Nara Lokesh and Balakrishna are also seen. Photo: Screengrab via YouTube video.
Lokesh lacks the quality of Tejashwi Prasad Yadav of Bihar. Not only that Pawan Kalyan has a film background, which often plays a significant role in South Indian politics. The examples of N.T. Rama Rao (Lokesh’s maternal grandfather), M.G. Ramachandran and J. Jayalalithaa are very vivid in the minds of the people.
Apart from that, it cannot be ignored that percentage-wise YSR Congress is still the single largest party, as it got 39.61 % of votes though it won only four Lok Sabha seats.
The NDA got more than half of the votes polled in the state because three parties jointly fought the election. The BJP got 11.28% while the TDP 37. 79%.
In the Assembly election, TDP got 45.6% of the votes against 39.4% by YSR Congress. The combined vote share of NDA was 56%. TDP won 135, Jan Sena 21, BJP eight and YSR Congress 11 seats.
Almost the same was the scenario in Bihar where RJD with 22.14% emerged as the biggest party, against BJP’s 20.50%, JD(U)’s 18.52% and LJP’s 6.5%. The Congress and Left parties could not muster as many votes as the RJD because they contested fewer seats. The INDIA bloc managed to reduce the gap with NDA to 9% from 27% in 2019.
Against the sentiment
Finally, TDP still wants to maintain a safe distance from Congress in Andhra Pradesh though in the Telangana Assembly election of 2018, it did not have any problem in allying with the Grand Old Party. This is simply because many people in Andhra Pradesh still hold Congress responsible for what they say was ‘unjust’ bifurcation of the state. In contrast, the voters of Telangana were actually thankful to it for conceding the demand of a separate state. That is why TDP joined hands with the Congress in Telangana and is not so keen in Andhra Pradesh.
Though the Congress had in 2014 and even in the recently held election promised Special Category Status for the state, it could not do so because it had not been voted to power. The people of Andhra may forgive Congress if it offers the Special Category Status once it comes to power. As the BJP has not fulfilled this promise in the last decade and may not do so in the coming days, the Congress can still hope – maybe against hope – of winning over the TDP in future.
