Opposition leaders are delighted to have a “normal” election after a long time, arguing that the first phase of polling has indicated that emotive issues failed to override the real concerns of livelihood, putting the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party to a great disadvantage.
While they claim the feedback from the constituencies from different states is positive, what these leaders fear is the possibility of a disruptive intervention because a normal election is bound to knock Narendra Modi out of office. The low voter turnout is being analysed as tangible evidence of the absence of any wave and deepening voter fatigue. There is no pull factor; issues dominating the electoral discourse have spread cynicism.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
Rajasthan, which registered a high 74.62% voting in the assembly elections barely four months ago saw the percentage slump to 57.65% in the first phase of Lok Sabha election. This decline of 17% vote means lakhs of voters have stayed aloof, a huge number that can spring surprises in the final outcome. It is difficult to guess what kind of voters have shown disinterest. While BJP leaders believe the opponents have given up, presuming that Modi is invincible, opposition leaders say people are fed up with Modi brand of politics based on diversionary ploys and irrelevant issues, where their core concerns are invariably pushed aside.
Asked about the first phase of polling, a leader from Vidarbha in Maharashtra told The Wire, “We are now witnessing an anti-Modi wave; people have taken the election in their own hands. In many villages, we found ordinary citizens encouraging people to vote to teach the BJP a lesson. Even Nitin Gadkari is struggling in Nagpur. Out of the five seats, we are confident of winning four. How did Modi allow a normal election? All along, we feared something dramatic hijacking the political discourse, as happened in the post-Pulwama phase in 2019. The Maha Vikas Aghadi will sweep this election if normalcy prevails in other rounds and people are allowed to vote on bread-and-butter issues. The BJP supporters aren’t motivated enough; they are unable to convince the voters to ignore high prices of essential commodities. Youth are angry because of unemployment. Farmers are livid. It finally looks like an election that will harbinger change.”
An Rashtriya Janata Dal leader from Bihar too heaved a sigh of relief that the election was happening on real issues like jobs and prices and the BJP had completely failed to manipulate the discourse in its favour. “The attempts to create an abnormal atmosphere because of the Ram temple in Ayodhya have not yielded the desired results. There is less of Pakistan as well,” this leader said.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi wrote on X: “First phase, great response. Thank you to all those who have voted today. Getting excellent feedback from today’s voting. It is clear that people across India are voting NDA in record numbers.”
Also read: Diverse Issues, Local Concerns and Fatigue with Modi Govt Dominate Discourse as India Votes
But Congress communications chief Jairam Ramesh said responding to the voting pattern, “BJP’s Graph: South Mein Saaf, North Mein Half! Here’s what we know after the first phase of voting: 1. In the first phase, voting was held on 102 seats in 21 states. Ground reports clearly show the INDIA coalition far ahead of BJP. We have swept Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra, and performed strongly in Bihar, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh. 2. The BJP’s performance in key states has been remarkably poor. The BJP leadership is in panic due to these trends – the PM’s tweet is an indication of the desperation in their camp. 3. BJP candidates have openly admitted that they will have to work hard this time because there is no Modi hawa. 4. The PM has been uninspiring in his campaign speeches and interviews. His attacks on INDIA are tired and jaded, and often bordering on the absurd. The PM has been unable to set the agenda for the election. The rhetoric around ‘400 Par’ and amending the Constitution have backfired on the ground. Congress Guarantees, backed by the strong performance of our State Governments, are gaining traction across the country. The undercurrent is gaining strength. A wave is now brewing!”
Claims and counter-claims will continue till the results are declared. But there are indications of voter fatigue and general lack of interest. A request for a gathering to hear a BJP leader in a middle class society in the National Capital Region (NCR) evokes apathetic response. An impregnable fortress of Modi bhakts that witnessed an astounding politico-religious hysteria on January 22 on the occasion of the consecration of Ram temple in Ayodhya, looked uninterested in any electoral discourse.
Some diehard BJP supporters even posted this message on the WhatsApp group: “This time, NOTA (None of the above) is the best option.” As such unusual reactions generate curiosity, this reporter enquired from a known BJP activist and he explained: “There is no enthusiasm this time. While price rise is a major concern creating anger among people, unemployment and stagnation of earnings have troubled everybody. Even local infrastructural issues haven’t been addressed for years. Ten years is a long time to understand the futility of a politics that doesn’t address people’s core concerns. It will be extremely difficult for the BJP this time to drag their supporters to the polling booth. They haven’t changed their loyalty but they are not motivated this time to fight for Modi.”
That’s what the opposition leaders, too, are saying.
Sanjay K. Jha is a journalist and analyst.
