New Delhi: Having secured a clear majority in Jammu and Kashmir, the National Conference (NC)-Congress alliance, possibly along with the Mehbooba-Mufti-led Peoples Democratic Party, looks set to form the next government in the erstwhile state.
However, even before the allies sit together to give shape to the new government, there’s a unique problem that could give a headache to the allies: the absence of an adequate number of Hindus from among the newly-elected MLAs, especially those from the Hindu-dominated districts of Jammu, Udhampur, Reasi, Samba and Kathua from either the NC or the Congress.
While of the 42 MLAs elected on its symbol, the NC has two Hindu MLAs – Arjun Singh Raju (Ramban) and Surinder Kumar Choudhary (Nowshera), the Congress, which has six MLAs, has no Hindu face that it can offer to be part of the new ministry.
Of the seven independent MLAs, three – Rameshwar Singh (Bani), Satish Sharma (Chhamb) and Payare Lal Sharma (Inderwal) – are Hindu.
Satish Sharma, who defeated senior Congress leader and former deputy chief minister Tara Chand, a Scheduled Caste candidate who had left his reserved seat of Akhnoor to contest from a general seat, is the son of late Madan Lal Sharma, a former Congress MP.
When Satish Sharma was denied the Congress party nomination, even though his family enjoys huge support in the Akhnoor-Chhamb area and he was considered a sure-shot winner, fingers were pointed at All India Congress Committee leaders who had been given the charge of candidate-selection in J&K.
As things stand, Tara Chand finished a poor third behind Sharma and the BJP’s Rajeev Sharma.
Senior J&K journalist Manu Shrivatsa feels the Congress needs to ask itself why it didn’t push harder while selecting candidates.
“Forget Hindu MLAs, you [the Congress] don’t have even one MLA from the Jammu region. We kept hearing from disgruntled party leaders that seats were sold, but nobody bought into this narrative. Now, it seems, we should have taken it more seriously,” Shrivatsa told The Wire.
He added: “Senior leaders like Tara Chand and Raman Bhalla left their safe seats to contest from seats that they thought were safer, but ended up losing there too. Winnable candidates like Satish Sharma and Jugal Kishore Sharma [Shri Mata Vaishno Devi], who lost by 2,000-odd votes as an independent candidate while the official Congress candidate got just 5,655 votes, were not even considered for seats.
Also read: J&K Election Verdict: INDIA Bloc Triumphs; National Conference Emerges as the Largest Party
“It will always remain a mystery as to who decided the ticket distribution. But, the party, as always, will do no introspection.”
Jugal Kishore, a former minister, had left the Congress to join Ghulam Nabi Azad’s now-almost-defunct party. Before the elections, he was in touch with Congress leaders for a possible “ghar wapasi”. But his pre-condition that he be given the party mandate was rejected outright. He then decided to contest as an independent.
Meanwhile, speculation is rife in J&K political circles that the NC has already opened back-channel negotiations with several of the independent MLAs, especially Hindus, to get them to join the new government.
If six of the seven independent MLAs, as also the Communist Party of India (Marxist) (CPM)’s lone MLA Mohamad Yusuf Tarigami and the only MLA elected on an Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) ticket – Mehraj Malik (Doda) – decide to support the NC, the party would be in position to form the government without even the Congress.
This, sources say, could also give the predominantly Kashmir-based party a huge strategic advantage while negotiating with the Congress during government formation.
In a house of 90 elected MLAs, the total strength will eventually be 95 as the lieutenant governor will get to nominate five MLAs – two women, two Kashmiri migrant community members and one Pakistan-occupied J&K-displaced person – all of whom will have voting rights.
The majority mark, once the nominated MLAs take their seats, therefore will be 48, something that the NC could be aiming to achieve through alliances with the independents and the CPM and AAP MLAs.
Observers believe this was the first assembly election where J&K’s regions voted on clearly religious lines and not regional lines as used to be the case earlier.
“Kashmiris voted on religious lines as did Jammu voters. The problem is that while the NC … has two Hindu MLAs, none of them is from central Jammu. Unless independent MLAs agree to join the party, who will represent the Kathua, Samba, Jammu, Udhampur and Reasi areas as the Hindu face of the next government? It will be interesting to see how the situation unfolds in the coming days,” said a Congress leader who didn’t wish to be named.
