Nuapada Bypoll: A Three-way Fight that May Redraw Odisha’s Power Map
Bhubaneshwar: In a dramatic political twist in Odisha’s Nuapada constituency, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has fielded Jay Dholakia – son of late Biju Janata Dal (BJD) MLA Rajendra Dholakia – as its candidate for the November 11 bypoll. The move has caught the ruling BJD off guard, forcing it to scramble for a replacement nominee.
Rajendra Dholakia, a popular legislator and former minister known for his philanthropy, passed away on September 8 following complications from a heart transplant. His death necessitated the by-election, and the BJD had been widely expected to field his son, Jay, banking on the family’s goodwill in the constituency. A red faced BJD finally declared former minister and Attabira MLA Snehangini Chhuria as its candidate.
The Congress, the state’s third major political force, has fielded tribal leader Ghasiram Majhi, who contested the 2024 assembly election as an Independent after being denied a party ticket. In that election, then state Congress president Sarat Pattanayak himself had contested from Nuapada.
Majhi, however, has a strong track record in the constituency. In 2024, he had emerged as the main challenger to Rajendra Dholakia, polling 50,941 votes to Dholakia’s 61,822. The BJP’s Abhinandan Panda, son of former state BJP president Basanta Panda, came third with 44,814 votes, while Pattanayak finished a distant fourth with just 15,501 votes.
Given Majhi’s past performance, he appears to hold an edge over both Jay Dholakia and Chhuria. Jay’s switch to the BJP limits his ability to leverage his father’s legacy, while Chhuria is viewed locally as an outsider to the constituency.
Still, elections are rarely decided by candidates alone. Organisational strength, campaign resources and behind-the-scenes manoeuvres could tilt the balance in unpredictable ways.
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Speculation is rife in Nuapada about such manoeuvres. One theory doing the rounds is that the BJD may have quietly allowed Jay Dholakia’s defection, given the tacit understanding the BJD and BJP are believed to share on several issues in Parliament. Another view is that Jay, who comes from a business family, may have been pressured to join the BJP to avoid pre-election scrutiny.
Whatever the reason, the November 11 bypoll has become a high-stakes contest that could reshape Odisha’s political equations. Its outcome may well influence the future course of all three key players – the BJP, the BJD and the Congress.
Political uncertainty
But whatever the abilities of its individual candidates, ever since the Congress party lost power in Odisha in 2000, its vote share has declined consistently in successive elections – from 33.77% in 2000 to 13% in 2024. Odisha Congress president Bhakta Charan Das, who met this reporter at a recent media conclave, described the reason in these words: “We had been doing all these years what the BJD is doing now.”
What he meant was that since it lost power, the Congress never functioned as a true opposition party and it paid heavily for this.
After losing power in 2000, the Congress was the main opposition in Odisha for nearly two decades, even as the BJD and BJP jointly ruled the state for eight years as coalition partners. But after their split, the BJP gradually replaced the Congress as the state’s second major political force.
It is the Congress’ prolonged inertia that allowed the BJP to push it to third position in 2019 and eventually form the government five years later. Yet, despite being in power, the BJP government has struggled to connect with voters in Odisha. Meanwhile, the BJD, with 51 MLAs, remains numerically strong but has yet to act like a true opposition force. Critics say it has failed to hold the government accountable on issues such as crimes against women and the agrarian crisis. “Odisha is in a period of political uncertainty where neither the ruling party nor the opposition shows much activity,” admitted a senior BJP leader.
This lack of confidence was evident in the BJP's own choice of candidates for the Nuapada bypoll. The constituency is home to veteran BJP leader Basant Panda twice an MLA and once an MP from the area – yet the party overlooked both him and his son Abhinandan, opting instead for Jay Dholakia. Panda did not conceal his displeasure over this while speaking to reporters.
The BJD, on the other hand, appeared unsure of its local leadership after Jay’s defection and turned to Chhuria, a seasoned, firebrand woman leader but a non-local – she belongs to a different part of western Odisha. Even the Congress had limited options and decided to field its tested tribal face, Ghasiram Majhi.
A test for Majhi and Patnaik
At the same time, the Nuapada bypoll offers all three major parties a chance to send powerful political messages across Odisha. The stakes are particularly high for the BJP and the BJD.
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A ruling party rarely loses a bypoll, yet BJP leaders – including Chief Minister Mohan Charan Majhi – are taking the contest seriously. The chief minister cannot afford a setback while still trying to stabilise his year-old government and counter murmurs within his own party that he lacks authority. Winning the seat from the BJD would help him consolidate his position as a leader of stature in a state where Naveen Patnaik continues to command immense political weight. But the BJP’s prospects may hinge partly on how the chief minister manages to placate a displeased Basant Panda.
For Patnaik and the BJD, the bypoll will be an important test of relevance. A loss would send a message that the party – and its long-time leader – are losing their grip on the state’s political imagination. Patnaik seems aware of the stakes. Breaking from his usual practice of quietly announcing candidates and retreating from the press, he personally introduced Chhuria as the party’s nominee, describing her as a “strong woman leader of western Odisha,” and promised to campaign for her in Nuapada.
The Congress, meanwhile, carries less baggage but perhaps more to prove. For it, the Nuapada bypoll is the best opportunity in years to show it still has a future in Odisha politics. Its candidate Ghasiram Majhi enjoys a personal support base in the region and could spring a surprise – provided the state leadership rallies behind him. The question is whether the Congress is ready to seize that moment.
Priya Ranjan Sahu is a senior journalist based in Bhubaneswar.
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