Politic | Is the Vice Presidential Race an Avoidable Crisis for Modi-Shah?

Every stratagem throws up a crisis if the chips are down. The snares and pitfalls of politics aren't made to order; they have their own unpredictable dynamics. Prime Minister Narendra Modi will understand this better now that the shrewd scheme of removing Jagdeep Dhankhar as vice president to pre-empt a destabilising plot has turned out to be a god-send opportunity for the opposition. At times, even wise men cut their head to cure a headache.

That the government is gripped by apprehensions of a shock defeat in the election for the next vice president despite having a comfortable majority exposes the tactical vulnerability of the Modi-Shah duopoly. The fear is generated by political ambiance, not arithmetical reality. The political grapevine is abuzz with word of a rebellion within the BJP. If some BJP members indeed decide to cross-vote, the election can throw up a surprise.

Hasn’t Modi unnecessarily exposed himself to these uncertainties, giving credence to the widespread perceptions about his diminishing control? Even if the opposition candidate loses after attracting votes from the BJP camp, Modi will have to worry about the future. If the BJP candidate loses, Modi’s continuance becomes untenable. The Rajya Sabha chairperson coming from the opposition can make the government’s life miserable.

Though the opposition parties set up a contest by fielding Justice B. Sudershan Reddy, a choice that injected a dilemma into the minds of MPs from Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, his victory looks unlikely even if the Telugu Desam Party with its 18 members in both houses and the YSR Congress with 11 vote for him. The BJP-led NDA can cross the target of 392 without their support.

The scare of a defeat will deepen only if the Biju Janata Dal, the Bharat Rashtra Samithi and Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena also support the opposition candidate. If the BJP faces internal rebellion, the game is over.

What has added grist to the rumour mills is speculation about the role of the Ambani group. Raids on Anil Ambani and an investigation into Vantara have egged on conspiracy theorists to wonder if India’s richest man would like to destabilise this regime.

At any rate, the pit that Modi-Shah had dug up for Dhankhar has widened. It looks wide enough to accommodate the entire government if it indeed falls. If there is no possibility of a fall, why are the managers so desperately trying to keep their flock together? As if phone calls by Modi and Shah are not enough, lunches, dinners and workshops are being organised to massage the MPs' ego. Modi has never looked so vulnerable.

PM: Politics and priorities

A paradigm shift in foreign policy is a major development in the life of a country. If it is sudden and abrupt, the prime minister is expected to take the political leadership and the nation into confidence. The opposition as well as the ruling party's leaders must know if a radical change has occurred in India's approach towards global powers.

The world witnessed how India’s relations with the US crashed after sustained investment in the strategic and economic partnership over the last two decades. American President Donald Trump posted this ominous message on Friday: “Looks like we have lost India and Russia to the deepest, darkest China. May they have a long and prosperous future together!”

Though Trump tried to sweeten the pill a day later and Modi showed his desperation to merrily gulp it down, the gruff sentiment expressed by the mercurial American president, fraught with both warning and disdain, may have signalled trouble for India. Grave challenges for sure, if not serious trouble. Businesses have already received the jolt, from Surat to Tiruppur, while the government felt compelled to rationalise taxes to ease the burden on domestic industries and rev up demand.

The government slipped into China’s embrace, abruptly wiping the slate of bitterness clean. The ruling party itself portrayed China as an enemy over the last few years, condemning its expansionist tendencies and branding even distant associations with anything Chinese as seditious. After such stunning diplomatic acrobatics, Modi should have either explained the reasons behind this change to important leaders or publicly psyched up the nation to readjust to the new geopolitical reality.

China boldly delved into the troubled India-US relations, calling for strategic autonomy in New Delhi’s perception and approach. The Global Times, which speaks for the Chinese Communist Party, wrote:

“The goal is nothing more than to turn India into a pawn in Washington’s so-called ‘Indo-Pacific Strategy’ to contain China. Facts have shown that such small political cliques do not align with New Delhi's pursuit of full strategic autonomy. While challenges remain in bilateral relations, both sides' willingness for pragmatic cooperation introduces a positive variable into global strategic balance.”

China’s description of its partnership with India as a factor of strategic balance is bound to leave Trump’s ears burning at a time when Xi Jinping has unambiguously demonstrated global ambitions by repeatedly dwelling on the security and prosperity of all of humanity.

Ironically, when Xi is talking of a “Global Governance Initiative”, Modi chose to whip up passions on the pretext of an insult to his mother. When the prime minister was required to build a national consensus on the paradigm shift in foreign policy, he chose to imagine an emotive issue to sharpen attacks on the opposition parties. Modi’s politics and priorities are doubtless inexplicable and distressing.

Also read: In Bihar, a Diminished Narendra Modi is Banking on the Politics of Outrage

Politicking on mother

Governments rarely work to invent a national tragedy. The prime minister led the BJP in whipping up sentiment against the abuse of his mother, going so far as to call a Bihar bandh in protest.

What happened in Bihar was condemnable. But the BJP tried to portray a petty misdeed as a national tragedy. Someone abuses Modi’s mother from the dais built for the Congress-Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) function after the yatra led by Rahul Gandhi and Tejashwi Yadav had left the place. The culprit is arrested. Both the Congress and the RJD strongly disapprove of the unseemly behavior.

But the entire BJP started a campaign, blaming Rahul Gandhi for the abuse. Modi himself took up the issue in a big way after returning from China and instigated people to avenge the insult. He insisted that his mother’s insult was in fact a humiliation of every mother and sister in the country.

Not a single person defended the vulgar act. Indians may have an abnormally high level of tolerance of evil but they don’t need street protests and a media circus to comprehend the undesirability of this depravity. But Modi’s abnormal response indicated he was itching to transform personal anguish into political gains. He has repeatedly demonstrated this tendency in the past.

But the people of Bihar saw through the game and dismissed the political campaign as a diversionary trick because the ‘vote chori’ campaign was a resounding success. Fake issues can’t alter lived reality. Modi's old trick may not get its desired result because it looked stale and repetitive, robbing the drama of its captivating appeal.

If Modi is truly hurt by the insult, what should be the natural consequence? He should honestly identify the factors that have lumpenised public spaces and the political discourse. Who has created the biggest troll army that abuses and threatens anybody who questions Modi? Why are his supporters hurling filthy abuses and rape threats at women and girls who criticise this government? Does he not follow some of these infamous abusers on social media? Who runs the industry that abuses Jawaharlal Nehru and even Mahatma Gandhi? Does he not know whether the BJP ecosystem nurtures, or fights, this vulgarity?

Modi needs a mirror, not a debate, on the question of vulgarity. When he screamed ‘Congress ki vidhva’ (‘the widow of the Congress’) in front of cameras, didn’t he insult a former prime minister who sacrificed his life for the country and a widow who was dealing with the tragedy with quiet dignity? What message did he send out by calling a woman ‘pachas crore ki girlfriend’? Didn’t he compare a fellow woman parliamentarian with a monster?

Isn’t it true that his administrative, political and personal responses to what happened to Bilkis Bano during the Gujarat riots were seriously deficient? Doesn’t the world see that his stance on the genocidal attack on thousands of women and children in Gaza has been seriously problematic? Why did he remain silent when decorated sportswomen, protesting against sexual harassment, were dragged on the street by police? What’s a bigger tragedy – Manipur or the abuse of his mother?

Modi should do some serious introspection before troubling the nation with his disproportionate reaction to a condemnable abuse by an idiot. Modi keeps playing the victim card. Will he ever play the conscience card?

Sanjay K. Jha is a political commentator.

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