Johnson resigned. Trump is indicted. Bolsonaro is debarred from contesting elections. Berlusconi has passed away. Hungarian President Novák, supported by the authoritarian Orbán, is forced to resign. Voila! The chorus sings: populism is dead.
But is it really?
Johnson is replaced by an even more conservative and hardliner Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, who hawked the rhetoric — “stop the boat” and brought in one of the most stringent anti-immigration laws in recent British history. Sunak staunchly believes there are just two genders — male and female and denies the existence of transgender and intersex individuals. He unabashedly defends and is even “pleased” to receive donations from the “gentleman”, in other words, crooked businessman – Frank Hester who “thinks” British MP Diane Abbott “should be shot” and that he “hates all black women.”
Donald Trump faces a barrage of legal cases, yet with each legal standoff, his approval ratings soar to new heights. He has transformed his court appearances into election campaign rallies, emerging victorious in the Republican nomination for the presidential candidacy. Now, a long-anticipated rematch between him and Biden has arrived. He may have lost elections in 2020, but his four years in office have galvanised those aligned with his rhetoric of “make America great again.”
Also read: Is the Wind Turning Against Populism?
His Supreme Court appointees have not only halted progressive policies, but reversed strides made on crucial issues, such as denying abortion as a constitutionally protected right, curtailing the Environmental Protection Agency’s environmental oversight, and thwarting Biden’s Student Loan Forgiveness scheme. Even if Trump fails to reclaim the presidency or is incapacitated, his campaign has compelled other candidates to fervently advocate for his agenda. Trumpism has enabled figures like Governor Ron DeSantis, Senator Tim Scott, businessman Vivek Ramaswamy and former Governor Nikki Haley who ardently oppose “woke” liberalism and pose threats to the personal liberties of women and the LGBTQA+ community.
Photo: Rob Walsh/Unsplash
Jair Bolsonaro is facing a police investigation and cannot contest elections. Nevertheless, his supporters replicate the events of the US Capitol insurrection, and he recently held massive rallies in São Paulo, attended by millions of people.
Berlusconi, the epitome of the nexus between crooked businesses and politics, virtually blurred the lines by purchasing and hijacking television media and political narratives in Italy. But a new Berlusconi — even worse in many respects — now commands Rome’s formidable power structure. Her name is Giorgia Meloni, — Italy’s youngest minister in the Berlusconi government (2008-11). Her party represents the philosophy and nostalgia of fascist Benito Mussolini and she thinks, “Mussolini was a good politician.” In just four years, her party’s vote share surged from 4.3% in 2018 to 26% in 2022. They are betting on securing a greater number of seats in the upcoming European Parliament.
Hungary’s President, who holds mere ceremonial power, resigned for pardoning the rape convict. However, this event is not as significant as it is said to be. Because the real power rests with Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who has wielded almost impenetrable power. More than any other populist in recent modern history, he has altered Hungary’s constitution and election infrastructure to ensure he and his party’s ideologues remain in power. He has strategically placed his allies in positions of power across all organs of the state machinery, virtually making it difficult for democracy to thrive.
Yes, there are protests in Budapest. However, in a predominantly pro-Orbán Hungary, Budapest stands as the only remaining constituency where Orbán and his party have not secured seats. Unfortunately, Budapest does not represent the entirety of Hungary. Anti-Roma, anti-migrant prejudices and Islamophobia run deep in Hungarian society, and Orbán has translated this political rhetoric into state policies.
Orbán does not shy away from declaring that he is building an “illiberal democracy” in Hungary. He visits the Conservative Political Action Conference in the US and takes the trouble to travel to Mar-a-Lago and greets Trump with enthusiasm and intimacy, as if meeting a long-lost brother. He allows Jair Bolsonaro to hide in the Hungarian embassy in Brasília to evade police investigation. A brief look at his Twitter posts reveals not only his admiration for fellow populists across the globe but also his active efforts to mobilise resources and support to build a coalition with them.
At this point, it might be prudent to clarify one thing. These politicians are not “populist”. They and their ideology and ambitions have grown beyond being a people’s party or anti-elitist, anti-woke movement. Instead, they seek total control over their ideology which would well describe them as the “far-right”. To call them populist is to lessen the enormity of the threat they pose to a constitutional order, to the idea of a modern liberal-democratic state. To call Orbán and Trump or Modi a populist is to unfairly box populists like Bernie Sanders and them in one category. While both sets of politicians may view the state apparatus as elitist and anti-people — the core definition of populism — they represent diametrically opposite ideas about the role of the state in people’s lives.
They clearly admire Putin. Orbán, despite being a part of the EU, has staunchly opposed sanctions against Russia, continued to build the gas pipeline between Russia and Hungary, and opposed increased aid to Ukraine. He has effectively pressured the EU to concede to his demands.
Benjamin Netanyahu might appear isolated as the Prime Minister of an invading country in world politics, but this should not be mistaken for weak political standing. Like most far-right populists such as Modi, Netanyahu embodies an ideology and a resolute belief in an “alternative reality or worldview”, and he will go to any extent to make that alternative reality a reality. He has crafted an image of himself as a “Mr. Security man”, and now that this image is tarnished, he is rebuilding his persona as “Mr. No Palestinian State Man.” Additionally, Netanyahu and his new image are supported by a coalition of Jewish ultra-nationalist and far-right parties. The ongoing conflict ensures that these far-right extremists are here to stay, at least in the near future.
But what does the data say? Do the data points support the narrative that populism, now in its evolved form as the far-right, is losing strength or becoming stronger?
Let’s look at the three most recent data and research. In India, research conducted by Pew indicates that a significant 31% of the population would prefer an authoritarian government with no to minimal interference from the judiciary or parliament. In Germany, a survey by the Zeit busts all stereotypes about supporters of the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), the far-right party investigated as a neo-Nazi extremist group by German intelligence. The data reveals that 44% of potential AfD voters are female, and 76% of all potential voters reside in West Germany, which is relatively more affluent and prosperous. This dispels the notion that AfD supporters are predominantly male residents of East Germany. The third most frightening data is by King’s College London. Their research suggests, “Boys and men (16–29 years) from generation Z (in the UK) are more likely than older baby boomers to believe that feminism has done more harm than good.”
If there were a capability maturity model to measure the degree of their political extremism, figures like Modi, Orbán, Trump, Sunak, and Meloni would rank as Putin wannabes. One thing is abundantly clear: populists in their early endeavours do not merely seek power but absolute power to impose their worldview of an “alternative reality” and reshape society’s character. In pursuit of this, they cultivate a cult-like following, a dedicated followership committed to their alternative reality.
The non-populists, instead of writing an obituary about populism, should focus on understanding why populists are on the march. They should go to the people, have the courage to take bold actions. Importantly, they should invest in actions that would rebuild people’s trust in democracy. It is not populists’ bright ideas that attract the people; rather, it is their dissent in liberal democratic order that forces them away from it.
Pius Fozan is an author and public policy graduate from the Willy Brandt School and Central European University. He researches far-right populism, political extremism, and its impact on democratic governance in India and Germany.
