Deoria/Gorakhpur/Ghosi/Salempur/Ballia (Uttar Pradesh): The Other Backward Classes’ (OBC’s) vote for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is what has made it the party to beat.
The 49.6% voteshare that the BJP secured in the 2019 elections in Uttar Pradesh, in spite of a Bahujan Samaj Party-Samajwadi Party-Rashtriya Lok Dal alliance, made people wonder if it was because of the alliance that ati-pichhda castes, or a large chunk of the non-Yadav OBCs, picked the BJP and caused an incontrovertible dent in the political potential for any alliance opposed to the BJP. Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) surveys, according to director Sanjay Kumar, record a sharp rise in OBC voteshare for the BJP nationally after 2009; the share of OBC votes with the BJP shot up from 34% in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, to 44% in the 2019 polls.
Illustration: Pariplab Chakraborty
Modi’s own caste identity, flaunted by him since 2013, helped, as did the RSS-BJP’s drive to try and incorporate non-Yadav castes within the Kamandal or Mandir fold, like the Lodhs and others, in the form of Kalyan Singh, Uma Bharti and Vinay Katiyar, since the 1990s.
Akhilesh Yadav’s “bua” refrain and show of respect for Mayawati during 2019 and then desire to expand ‘PDA’ to make it about more and more non-Yadav and non-Muslim aspiration and representation has been in the works for some time now.
Journalist Sunil Kashyap notes that with its ticket distribution, the Samajwadi Party has stunned those who think it is about ‘MY’ alone, with one Pal ticket, six to Mauryas, Sainis, 10 to Kurmis and six to Nishads, Binds and Kashyaps.
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In ten years, many of those who had embraced the BJP in the hope of more representation, space and comfort appear bitter at the absence of material change – in either the respect they get or material benefits for their community.
Rural voters, amongst several of these non-Yadav castes, are particularly angry when you ask if it is a “waveless election” or mudda-viheen.
Anger is hard to miss, when you encounter people like Sudama in Belvar village in Gorakhpur, about 6.9 kilometres from the Gorakhpur-Deoria road. Sudama is a Nishad farmer and had voted for the BJP in 2019. This time, he is almost frothing when he says “mudde pe baat kijiye” or speak on the issues. “Isn’t this ghulami (slavery)? To foist anyone on us, and expect we will continue to vote? Why?” His anger was directed at sitting MP Ravi Kishen for not being there, not visiting even to ask for votes. “This is not okay.”
Sudama. Photo: Seema Chishti
His friend Ashok, also a Nishad, says the talk must only be on what matters, “inflation and joblessness”. Sudama and Ashok tell you that people of their caste, who are “running with the BJP flag since Atal ji’s time, with the BJP danda and jhanda, and still are, have come to nothing. If they were Pandit or Thakur, they would be candidates, but not them. Some of my people are still running with the flag, but our vote will not be for continuing ghulami this time.”
A shopkeeper sitting close by, a traditional BJP voter, is eager to reflect on what he sees there all day. “Sabke haath mein mobile ba, wahin se prachar ho raha hai. Sinhasan khaali ho jayega, janta ke samajh mein aa raha hai (Everyone has a mobile in their hands these days, that’s where the propaganda happens. The people understand that the throne will be empty soon).”
Sudama is angry at the “18% GST on notebooks thwarting any desire in our young people to be able to grow up and improve their lives”.
What about “ration” as the vote winner? “Not this time,” says Sudama, as “you cannot give us ration and have no bhartis (recruitments).” That is the “only point” of this election, he says.
Encountering a bunch of women singing bhajans outside Bholenath’s temple in Ghosi, as they do each Monday afternoon, is Saheli Kumari, hailing from the Rajbhar community. She is not impressed with rations being associated with one leader or party. “What is the PM saying about mangalsutra? Does he even know the price of gold under this government? We are unable to even make small gold tokens for shaadi-byaahs (weddings) at home, we may have to sell our gold for it, and he says all this. Mujra? Should Modi be saying all this? Sab ko gaali de rahe hain (He is abusing everyone).”
Women singing bhajans in Ghosi. Photo: Seema Chishti
It was believed by the BJP earlier, that the impact of inflation and joblessness will be negated because of the continuance of the Covid scheme of ‘free’ 5 kg rations. But more serious concerns outweigh any goodwill extra rations may have generated earlier.
Two ‘Ps’ figure across conversations – a grouse against the ‘pratyashi’ (candidate) and the desire for ‘parivartan‘ (change).
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Sanjay Deep Kushwaha is Deoria-based, and runs the Rashtriya Samanta Dal. They hold meetings and discussion groups spreading awareness in his community, urging them to not get cowed down within the existing scheme of things. The group even has a candidate in these elections in Deoria, Agam Swaroop. Sanjay Deep speaks clearly about how demanding social respect and space is now seen together with better economic opportunities, so that the entire vanchit samaj (deprived social segment) can grow.
“Our demand is not ration. Half of the per capita income the BJP claims India has should be given to each voter, as Matadaata Pension. Finish all these schemes and yojanas. MPs/MLAs get benefits post retirement. Why should voters not get benefits? This will also up the vote percentage.” Sanjay Deep suspects that the BJP government has an ideological agenda to keep depressed classes and backwards down. “Why did they bring in Agniveer? They realised that only backwards were now going into the Army and getting better off, educating their children and forging a path ahead. Now, with Agniveer, that option is shut down.”
Sanjay Deep addressing a crowd. Photo: Special arrangement
A desire is there now for “vyavastha parivartan not just satta parivartan”. A change of system, not just a change of government, he says. “This government, by privatisation and finishing off the economy, is choking avenues for the growth of our entire future generations.”
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On the other side of the political divide, in Salempur, Hari Dube is a farmer and with small trade interests in village Ithura. He is a long time BJP hand and Narendra Modi supporter, and says the Ram Mandir and ration will help the BJP win the elections with ease. But he too agrees that the ‘pratyaashi’ not being very good is “creating a small problem”. He insists, though, that come election day, all non Yadavs, Muslims and Dalits will want another five years of this government.
Hari Dube. Photo: Seema Chishti
In Salempur itself, Dr Chaturanan, who runs the Samaan Shiksha Adhikar Aandolan, and was active and also arrested during the farmers’ movement, says the more numerous OBC non-Yadav groups, like Nishads, Kushwahas and Rajbhars, once satisfied with the BJP ushering them into its tent, are now discontented and want more. They will break away from the BJP’s sphere of influence. “As far as small groups go, who are just 15,000-20,000 [in population], [they] will perhaps stay with the BJP.”
The Sainthwars, an OBC caste which is an offshoot of the Kurmi caste, claiming Kshatriya status, are numerous around Deoria and Ballia. Sadanand and Birender Lal, small farmers whose votes fall in Ghosi, suggested they will stay with the BJP, as they had received benefits, mostly “the quietening of the utpaat-creating Yadavs, Muslims and Harijans (sic). Yeh baanh sakra ke baat karte hain. They remain the only angry groups in society, the rest are calm and adjusted. Modi told us at the rally a day ago, to vote for the chhadi, the walking stick, as the vote would reach him.” They find it convenient to vote for Om Prakash Rajbhar’s son, Arvind Rajbhar, and are doing so as there is a social fit for them who do not wish to rock any boats. What about paper leaks, Agniveer and other bharti issues in the state? Given other social conditions, they say, it is important to vote for the BJP, to “level out” the impact of Yadavs, Muslims and Dalits.
Sadanand and Birender Lal. Photo: Seema Chishti
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Why ‘churn’ is the right word to use is because if there are OBC castes still staying on with the NDA, there are many chinks amongst poor, forward caste groups, feeling squeezed by the economy going south. A Madhesiya tea seller with a large shop on the banks of the River Ghaghara accepts that there is “peace in my shop as people don’t come and leave without paying, but I am tired of other things, like the loss of over Rs 4 lakh in the Sahara scam, no one has bothered to return any money. In this government, it is the same from top to bottom, it needs a shake-up.”
Sharp words came from a vegetable seller in Ballia, “If the BJP wins this time, the people will lose their deposit for another five years.” It is tempting to see this as an election where economic issues have crushed people across the board, but for ‘smaller people’ as they self-deprecatingly refer to themselves, it is tinged with heightened anger and bitterness given their place in the social hierarchy. Sustained absence of jobs and no new economic opportunities are seen as a serious impediment to their social well-being as well as a blow to prospects for their children’s futures and therefore their communities. Sustained talk of ‘changing the Constitution’ has only added to their perception that there is nothing that the BJP has to offer for them at present.
On May 27, Monday, in Bihar’s Bhojpur, very close to the UP border, Rahul Gandhi has again reiterated that INDIA will conduct the caste census, so social deprivation can be evaluated and connected to economic benefits groups should receive.
In UP, economic distress is twinning with social justice in ways seldom seen, when what appear to be disparate and unconnected points of irritation, annoyance and suspicion are finding a focus and risk turning into a strong anti-incumbency sentiment. Irrespective of results, a social justice agenda with an economic bedrock could provide a formidable fulcrum for any future political opposition against the BJP.
Photo: Seema Chishti
UP’s politics has been full of twists and turns over the years, contrary to the perception of stasis that has been on display from 2014. While the BJP has retained a very healthy voteshare here from 1989 onwards, in Lok Sabha elections the BJP’s fortunes have swung wildly, from 52 seats in 1996, all the way to just 10 in 2009. That was the year the Congress got 21 MPs in UP, more in number than it had MLAs. In just the next election in 2014, the seats flipped with the BJP routing the opposition, winning 71, and the Congress just two. In 2019, BJP won 62, Congress managed just one.
As an analyst said, “If you just look at 2019, you will think no election, nothing is possible here, ever again. But that is not how politics must be understood here or analysed.”
A seller of chilled water in the hot afternoon waiting for Adityanath’s rally to start in Gorakhpur’s Belvar on May 26, Sunday, says the kamal is up when first asked. But on being asked more questions, he says the “cycle-iya chalat ba, aur tez chalat ba (cycle is speeding ahead)”. He is what biradari? A Pasi (Dalit), he says and smiles as he gives out the water bottles and counts the change.