New Delhi: The result on the nine seats holding by-poll election in Uttar Pradesh will do little to change the topography of the state’s Assembly. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and its four smaller allies, have a commanding position in the 403-member House, with 283 seats. Although bypolls are often significant in setting the trend for upcoming general elections, the nine seats that will vote next month is likely to have a lasting impact on the next assembly elections, scheduled in 2027.
However, coming almost five months after the seemingly-unassailable BJP performed poorly in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the by-elections onthese nine seats spread across the state, are a test of the political messaging, alliance management and caste equations of all the major parties.
And this is where the main Opposition, the INDIA bloc consisting of the Samajwadi Party and the Congress, have so far managed to put up a show of unity – albeit an imperfect one – carrying forward their successful synchronisation in the general elections, in which they together won 43 out of 80 seats in UP.
Congress’s strategic call to not contest any seat on its symbol
The SP, whose social arithmetic forms the bulwark of the alliance, also continued to propagate its PDA (Pichda, Dalit, Aplsankhyak) strategy by experimenting and fielding a Dalit candidate from Ghaziabad, which is a general seat, and fielding marginalised caste Hindu and Muslims on all nine seats.
Although the two allies bargained hard with each other for a favourable share of seats, in the end the Congress took a strategic call to not contest any seat on its symbol. The Congress was forced to take a step back by the fact that the two seats that fell in its kitty were titled in favour of the opponent. But in public, the Congress showcased it as a step of strategic unity with Akhilesh Yadav’s party.
“This is not the time to save one’s organisation or party, this is the time to protect the Constitution and brotherhood,” Avinash Pande, Congress general secretary in-charge of UP, said at a press conference on October 24 as he announced that the party would not field its candidates.
“We will continue to strive for the victory of the INDIA alliance candidates,” he said.
The Congress’s announcement came after it had lost hope of securing favourable seats in the arrangement. The SP, playing the dominant role in the alliance, had already, and unilaterally, declared candidates on six of the nine seats, including the stronghold constituencies of Karhal in Mainpuri and Katehari in Ambedkar Nagar. However, the Congress decided against going solo, ensuring that the INDIA bloc remained intact.
Akhilesh Yadav, too, acknowledged the importance of the alliance. In a post on X, he declared that under the strategy of ‘It is not about seats but about winning (jeet),’ he declared that the joint candidates of the INDIA bloc would contest on all the nine seats on the SP’s ‘cycle’ symbol.
“The Congress and Samajwadi Party are united and standing shoulder to shoulder for a big victory. India Alliance is going to write a new chapter of victory in this by-election,” said Yadav. He acknowledged that the SP’s strength “has increased manifold” with the backing of the Congress’ top leadership and booth level workers.
“This is an election to save the country’s constitution, harmony and the honour of the PDA. That is why our appeal to everyone is: don’t lose a single vote, don’t divide a single vote,” said Yadav.
To further showcase unity, Yadav uploaded a recent photograph of him campaigning with Congress leader Rahul Gandhi. In the photograph, the two leaders had their arms raised and hands locked together in unity. “We have resolved to save ‘Constitution, Reservation, Harmony’.
“We have to build the country of Bapu-Babasaheb-Lohia’s dreams,” Yadav captioned the photo.
Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav with Congress leader and Lok Sabha Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi. Photo: X/yadavakhilesh
Continuation of Yadav’s PDA strategy
The bypolls have also been about Yadav’s continuation of the PDA strategy. Out of the nine candidates fielded by the SP, four are Muslim, three OBCs and two Dalits, including one on a general seat. The SP fielded Muslims in Meerapur (Muzaffarnagar), Phulpur (Prayagraj), Sisamau (Kanpur) and Kundarki (Moradabad).
Out of these four seats, the SP had sitting MLAs on two seats, both Muslims. Sending a message to Dalits, in a strategy similar to the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the SP has fielded Singh Raj Jatav, a Dalit, from the unreserved seat of Ghaziabad.
In the Lok Sabha election, Akhilesh Yadav had fielded Dalit candidates on two general seats, Meerut and Faizabad, losing the former by a thin margin and scripting a historic victory on the latter to demolish the BJP’s Ram Mandir card.
The other Dalit candidate fielded by the SP was in Khair (Aligarh), Charu Kain, who had incidentally joined the Congress recently after quitting the Bahujan Samaj Party, on whose symbol she had stood runner-up in the last election.
The SP fielded OBCs in Majhawan and Katehari seats.
Although the top leadership of the INDIA bloc have put up a united face, the alliance faced a minor hiccup after the district Congress president Prayagraj (Gangapar) Suresh Chandra Yadav filed nomination from Phulpur as an independent, going against the writ of the party.
Congress UP president Ajay Rai removed the rebel from his post with immediate effect, deeming his move as “serious indiscipline.”
Akhilesh Yadav also expressed confidence that his PDA strategy would trump the communal card played by the BJP through its slogan of ‘Batoge, toh Katoge’, which invites all Hindu castes to be united or face persecution.
“The PDA strategy will challenge any ill-willed slogan of BJP. We have learnt how to strategise and how to defeat BJP by giving honour and adding support and by making sacrifices to accommodate others,” Yadav said in Mainpuri, where he was addressing an event by the bypoll.
