Compared to the 62% voter turnout by Muslims in the recent Lok Sabha elections, 68% of Hindus voted, according to CSDS-Lokniti data. No doubt, this creates the perception that the largest minority of India has shown a lack of interest in exercising their adult franchise. However, this is not the full story.
The above figures need to be examined properly as their voting percentage varies from state to state and even constituency to constituency. In 2019, 60% of Muslims had turned up to polling booths.
There are several types of states. One is where the population of Muslims is relatively small, which are also states where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) happens to be strong traditionally. Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat, Rajasthan, and Himachal Pradesh, etc., fall into this category. Haryana in 2014 and Odisha recently joined this list.
The second is where the community forms a sizeable population even though the BJP is either in power or is a prominent opposition party. Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Assam, West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Karnataka, Telangana Maharashtra, etc., can be cited as examples.
The third category is of those where Muslims are in good number but the saffron party is not a very influential player. They include Kerala, the Union Territory of Lakshadweep and constituencies in Kashmir Valley.
Finally, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh have a small Muslim population but the BJP on its own is not a big party.
Also read: How Did the Muslim Vote?
High turnout states
It has been observed that the turnout of Muslims is high where they feel that their votes matter much. Assam, West Bengal, Bihar, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Karnataka, Maharashtra, etc., witnessed relatively high turnout of the community.
Muslims showed enthusiasm in the recently held election even in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, etc., where the BJP on its own is not a very significant party though it is trying to expand its base.
In contrast, Muslims turned up in relatively fewer numbers in states like Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Chhattisgarh, and even large parts of Odisha. It is due to these states that the Muslim voters’ turnout was 62%, that is, six per cent less than Hindus.
Voters stand in line on Saturday. Photo: ECI
Curiously, Muslims showed keen interest in Rajasthan, Delhi and Haryana where they felt that their preference for the candidates of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance would be crucial.
It is in Banswara in Rajasthan that Prime Minister Narendra Modi during the election campaign on April 21 raised the issue of ‘mangal sutra’. Interestingly, the Muslim presence in Banswara is very
small.
The voting turnout of the community can be understood with the help of the data of some constituencies where they form either an overwhelming or substantial percentage of the population.
For example, Dhubri and Barpeta, the Muslim-dominated constituencies of Assam, witnessed 86.8% and 81.02% turnout, while Kishanganj and Katihar in Bihar saw 64% and 64.4% turnout respectively. These two constituencies have a 68% and 45% Muslim population. The turnout was much higher than in the rest of Bihar.
In Uttar Pradesh, the turnout in Saharanpur (65.95%), Moradabad (60.6%) and Rampur (54.77%) was better than the average turnout in the state. This was so notwithstanding the fact that there were complaints of many voters being harassed and turned away from the booths by the authorities.
Decline in Hyderabad, West Bengal
The most surprising aspect about Muslim voters’ turnout is that it was just 45.07% in Hyderabad, where they make up 59% of the total population, which is highest in Telangana. Needless to say, Hyderabad is being represented by Asaduddin Owaisi, the chief of All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM). This figure was one and a half per cent less than 46.56% in last year’s Assembly election. The AIMIM struggled to retain all seven seats in 2023.
It is difficult to ascertain whether there was a low turnout among Muslim or Hindu voters in both the 2023 and 2024 elections. Anyway, Owaisi owes an explanation to this apathy of the voters as he claims to be the self-appointed champion of the cause of Indian Muslims. Or is it that many Muslim voters of Hyderabad itself have little trust in his capability or his style of politics? In the absence of any formidable alternative, they opt to stay at home on the polling day.
In the same way, five Muslim-dominated constituencies of West Bengal witnessed about a 4% fall in voting turnout in comparison to the 2019 elections. Yet Murshidabad saw 81.52% votes which is the lowest since the 1984 election. On the other hand, 77.54% of voters exercised their franchise in Baharampur, where cricketer Yusuf Pathan, originally from Gujarat, as a Trinamool Congress candidate defeated Adheer Ranjan Chaudhary, leader of Congress in the last Lok Sabha.
Malda South and Malda North and Jangipur saw slightly less turnout in the 2024 Lok Sabha election in comparison to the last time. Yet the turnout was well over 77% in these three constituencies. Muslims form more than 60% of the population in these five constituencies.
Notwithstanding a slight decline in the voter turnout in Muslim-dominated constituencies of West Bengal the figure was well ahead of 62% which is the all-India average for Muslims. This is not the case in Hyderabad where it is 17% short.
Marginalisation of Congress
As the alternative party, that is, Congress has been marginalised in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Odisha, and even Chhattisgarh many Muslims see no reason to turn up to booths. In Gujarat, 70% of them still voted for Congress while 29% of them for the Bharatiya Janata Party. This is simply because there is no choice for them.
Contrary to this in Uttar Pradesh, 77% of Muslims voted for the Samajwadi Party and 15% for the alliance partner, the Indian National Congress. Here only 2% of Muslims throw their lot behind the BJP— and that too because of some local factors and not out of love for Prime Minister Narendra Modi or chief minister Yogi Adityanath.
In Bihar too, some Muslim votes went to the National Democratic Alliance simply because of the presence of Janata Dal (United), Lok Janshakti Party and other small groups. BJP had fielded candidates in only 17 out of 40 parliamentary constituencies.