Jehangir Ali 
Srinagar: The final phase of Jammu and Kashmir assembly election on Tuesday (October 1) is crucial for the Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) which is staring at an imminent collapse of its plan to keep the traditional parties out of the next government in the Union Territory.
Even though a spectre of communalism has been raised to polarise the electorate in Jammu ahead of the election, political analysts believe that the BJP is struggling to hold on its traditional vote bank in some pockets of the Hindu heartland of J&K.
The third phase will cover the remaining 24 assembly constituencies in Udhampur, Jammu, Kathua and Samba districts of Jammu division where the election was largely going to be a direct contest between the INDIA bloc comprising the National Conference (NC) and the Congress versus the BJP.
In 2014 assembly polls, the BJP had won 18 out of 24 seats in the four Hindu-majority districts of Jammu.
Polling will also be held in 16 seats spread across Baramulla, Kupwara and Bandipora districts of north Kashmir where the NC is vying for power with People’s Conference led by Sajad Lone and Engineer’s Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party among other smaller players.
In the run up to the polling day in Jammu, social media and messaging platforms such as WhatsApp remained abuzz with political messages touching on the minority status of Hindus in Jammu and Kashmir and why it was necessary to reclaim the “lost Dogra pride”.
Some social media accounts, backed by the Hindu rightwing media ecosystem, alleged that the Shankaracharya hillock located in the capital Srinagar, which houses a Shiv temple, was going to be renamed Takht-e-Sulemani, a peak in Pakistan, if INDIA bloc formed the next government in Jammu and Kashmir.
Both the names — ‘Shankaracharya’ and ‘Takht-e-Sulaimani’— have been interchangeably used by residents in Kashmir and historians alike for the scenic hillock in Srinagar’s Dalgate locality which also offers a panoramic view of Dal Lake and Srinagar city.
A Jammu-based analyst who didn’t wish to be named said that the rightwing groups and social media accounts backed by the BJP played on the insecurities of the Hindus by propagating the narrative that it was time to bring an end to the alleged “dominance” of Kashmir over Jammu by having the first Hindu chief minister who could restore the “lost glory of the Dogra rule”.
“There was a consistent messaging on how the BJP was going to end the alleged supremacy of Kashmir over Jammu for the last seven decades. The saffron party even declared Maharaja Hari Singh’s birthday as a public holiday and gave voting right to the West Pakistani refugees while at the same time it promised to ‘root out’ Rohingyas, all in an attempt to appease the Hindu voters,” he said.
However, unlike the 2014 assembly election when it swept the Jammu region riding the Modi wave, the BJP doesn’t seem to be on a solid footing in this election.
According to independent analysts, the party was likely to win only 18-22 seats in Jammu which prompted the top BJP leaders including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union ministers Rajnath Singh and Amit Shah and BJP president J.P. Nadda along with others to hold aggressive campaigns in the region in the run up to the election.
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The BJP also brought Uttar Pradesh chief minister Adityanath, the Hindutva poster boy, to address the election rallies in Ramgarh and Ram Nagar assembly constituencies where the party was fearing a tough fight, despite both being the traditional BJP strongholds.
“The BJP has used its top cards to communalise the election but it remains to be seen whether the electorate in Jammu will vote for the party this time too,” said the analyst quoted above.
However, instead of resorting to a soft-Hindutva plank, the INDIA bloc has countered the BJP’s narrative this time by highlighting the issues of inflation, slump in business in Jammu, unemployment, drugs, recruitment scams and high electricity bills to target the saffron party.
The Congress also brought in its top leadership including president Mallikarjun Kharge, MP Priyanka Gandhi and Leader of Opposition Rahul Gandhi who held at least two rallies in Srinagar and Baramulla districts of Kashmir also.
The INDIA bloc campaign cornered the BJP over its failure to develop tourism infrastructure in Jammu, alleging that the direct train to Katra and Kashmir was going to hit Jammu badly. The alliance also reiterated to the voters that J&K might have been downgraded but the statehood was going to be restored along with the Darbar move when the INDIA bloc forms the government in the Union Territory.
Darbar move was the biannual administrative practice of shifting the capital city between Jammu and Srinagar which spurred economic activity in the twin regions of J&K. However, the practice was stopped by the BJP-led Union government after J&K was downgraded into a Union Territory in 2019, which became an eyesore for the small businesses in Jammu.
Syed Amjad Shah, senior political analyst, underlined that the BJP banked on the politics of emotions, fears and uncertainties of the Dogri-speaking voters in Jammu during the election campaign whereas the INDIA bloc picked holes in the poor performance of the saffron party over the last ten years while at the same time promising a new era of prosperity for Jammu business, welfare for its elderly and opportunities for the youth.
“The opposition also turned the heat on the BJP for snatching powers of J&K’s elected government and handing them to the LG governor which has clicked with voters in some pockets of Jammu,” said Shah, who is based in Jammu.
Meanwhile, even though the BJP is contesting only four seats out of 16 in north Kashmir districts of Baramulla, Kupwara and Bandipora where the INDIA bloc is expected to make major gains, it will keep a close eye on the election.
Lone’s People’s Conference and Rashid’s Awami Ittehad Party among other small players are widely believed to play an important role in the government formation once the results of the election are out on October 8.
The polling for the remaining 50 assembly segments in south Kashmir and Chenab Valley and, central Kashmir and Pir Panjal region was held in the first and second phase of the three-phase election on September 18 and September 25 which recorded the turnouts of 61.38% and 57.31%, respectively.