'Dr Shah once bragged that the Indian establishment, under the Narendra Modi regime, had assured the King that monarchy and Hinduism represent two faces of the same coin that India would support in Nepal.'

Differences between Sirisena and Wickremesinghe may explain part of the crisis, the real cause in the rise of a nativist Sri Lankan leadership embodied by the president.

India’s attempts to reach out to Oli have been a serious exercise towards course correction in its neighbourhood approach, but is that enough?

There are strategic planners in the Indian establishment to whom the option of breaking the Left Alliance would come easily. Any such shortsighted move will be a disaster for India’s Nepal policy.

As a coalition headed by Prachanda takes charge, settling the remaining constitutional issues and resetting relations with India will be top priority.

India will continue to be affected by the spill-over of internal turbulence in Nepal. India's challenge is also becoming more formidable with the emergence of China as an assertive competitor for greater economic and strategic space in the sensitive Himalayan region.

Since the constitutional issue is primarily internal to Nepal, Kathmandu has to move towards accommodating Madhes. Likewise, Indian policy makers need to realise that any amount of coercive diplomacy, intended or unintended, declared or undeclared, has its limits.