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CHARTING The Election 2024: What the Turnout Figures Say

The results of the 2024 general elections for the 18th Lok Sabha are out. At The Wire, we go up close and dissect the data to see what it has to reveal about this extraordinary exercise, in these extraordinary times.
GIF: The Wire, with Canva. Photo: X/@ECISVEEP.

This is part of a series of stories on the 2024 general elections in which the numbers do the talking.

Hyderabad, Kolkata, New Delhi: This general election saw a lower voter turnout compared to the previous one, which saw the highest turnout in India’s electoral history. In 2019, over 67% of Indians, approximately 91.1 crore, voted. This time, however, only 88.4 crore (65.79%) voted. Reasons for this decrease could include the severe heatwave or possible complacency among BJP supporters.

The voting gap between women and men continued to close. In 2019, the difference was approximately 0.07%, while by 2024, women were behind by only 0.02%. Remarkably, women outvoted men in 19 states, up from 13 in 2019, including Meghalaya, Telangana, Bihar, and Jharkhand.

This suggests an improvement in gender parity in electoral participation, but it doesn’t imply that more women voted than men. Skewed sex ratios and gaps in voter registration must be considered. It only indicates that among registered voters, women’s participation was higher.

Analysing by state, Andhra Pradesh had a turnout of 80.66%, indicating strong voter engagement. Arunachal Pradesh reported a turnout of 77.65%, with high participation from both sexes. Assam reported a total turnout of 81.58%, while Bihar saw a lower total voter turnout at 56.19%, marked by a notable gender gap in participation (male: 53.28%, female: 59.39%).

In various states, the turnout for the Third Gender category was significantly lower than that of male and female voters, highlighting areas for improving inclusivity in the electoral process.

General seats experienced a decrease in voter turnout by 1.55%. The 86 SC reserved seats saw a slight decline of 1.59%. Historically, ST reserved seats have had low turnouts, but this trend has reversed since 2009, with each subsequent election seeing an improvement. Starting at 61.32% in 2009, ST turnout rose to 71.54% in 2014 and further to 73.72% in 2019, until a slight decrease of 1.28% to 72.44% in 2024.

Voter turnout in rural areas increased significantly from 2009 to 2019, then slightly declined in 2024, but remained higher than 2009 levels. Urban turnout also increased from 2009 to 2019, but saw a sharp decline in 2024. This merits further investigation. Rural turnout has consistently been higher than urban, with the gap narrowing from 2009 to 2019, then widening in 2024. The increase in turnout from 2009 to 2019 is likely due to effective voter mobilisation and improved accessibility, while the decline in 2024 could be attributed to voter fatigue or disaffection.

Historically, the cumulative vote share of national and state parties has remained around 90% since 1999, but it dropped slightly by 1.07% in the recent election. While this change is not significant, the fact that 49 more parties participated this time is noteworthy. This number has more than doubled since 2009, and six more parties are now represented in parliament. Although many of these local parties are limited and focus on single issues, this development indicates increased political diversity.

The total number of candidates in the latest election decreased by only 60 compared to 2019. However, a larger proportion – about 86% – lost their deposits in 2024, an increase of 4.47%. As a result, 325 more candidates lost their deposits. Despite complaints of many candidate nominations, like comedian Shyam Rangeela’s in Varanasi, being rejected and an unopposed election in Surat, the average number of candidates per constituency remains at 15, similar to 2019.

Made with Flourish
Visualisation by Soumashree Sarkar. 
Text by Pavan Korada.
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