Ajoy Ashirwad Mahaprashasta 
Ranchi: At a recent press briefing in Jharkhand’s capital, while responding to a question on the Bharatiya Janata Party’s lavish canvassing, the incumbent chief minister Hemant Soren explained the electoral dynamics as such: “Agla bhi mazboot hai, magar iska matlab yeh nahin hai ki satta paksh majboot nahin hai (the other side is strong but it doesn’t mean that the ruling side is not).”
He expressed confidence that the INDIA bloc will come back to power on the back of various welfare programmes that his government has started in Jharkhand.
In a way, the Jharkhand Mukti Morcha was not very far off the mark. Travelling across the state’s various regions, you barely hear common people betray anti-incumbency sentiments. This includes those who had traditionally preferred the BJP over any other political party. Meanwhile, BJP workers have vocally amplified their campaign against the JMM-led government, labelling it sometimes as a party of the corrupt, and on other occasions as a family-ruled party. The poor, who have been beneficiaries of at least one or more schemes brought by the JMM-led government, have not had much to say in this regard.
Soren’s move to waive off high electricity bills and deposit Rs 1,000 per month in bank accounts held by women below 50 years as part of the Maiya Samman Yojana have been particularly popular. Women above 50 received a similar pension until four months ago. While they do have resentment towards the irregular disbursement of their social security, they still acknowledge the fact that the state government’s gaze has been towards the poor, unlike many other governments of the past.
A full NDA, an unenviable INDIA
Yet, observers will tell you that the BJP has recovered from the failure it faced five years ago. During the time it sat in the opposition, the BJP convinced its previous ally, the Sudesh Mahato-led All Jharkhand Students Union (AJSU), to join ranks again. The saffron party’s high command also managed to get its former leader and chief minister Babulal Marandi to merge his party – the Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik) – with the BJP. The arrogance that had led it to contest separately brought the BJP to its knees, as both the AJSU and JVM(P) polled nearly 14% votes and played a role in the JMM-Congress combine’s victory.
The NDA has a full house in the 2024 assembly elections in the state. The INDIA bloc only has the Communist Party of India (ML-Liberation) as a regional ally which is influential in only some small pockets of north Chotanagpur region. In terms of social equations, the NDA represents ‘upper’ caste groups, migrants from Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, and a large chunk of Scheduled Caste groups, and, most importantly, the Kurmi community that claims to be over 30% of the state’s population and whose votes had split between BJP, AJSU, and JMM in 2019.
Challenging it is the INDIA bloc led by the JMM that commands strong support from the state’s 26% tribal groups and 14% Muslims. There may be exceptions to these broad equations but, largely, the state’s social dynamics appear to be fragmented along these communitarian lines. This has made the INDIA bloc a stronger player in the 28 seats reserved for the Scheduled Tribes, but also makes it vulnerable in the remaining 53 seats.
The BJP has left no stone unturned in disfiguring the Adivasi-Muslim unity in Jharkhand by pitting them against each other by fuelling a campaign against “Muslim infiltrators” in Jharkhand, which it also claims is a deliberate attempt by them to grab land and jobs away from the Adivasis. However, a large part of the Adivasi pockets still remain strongly in support of the JMM. The BJP understands this but has risked a barely-relatable campaign in Jharkhand to attempt to damage the JMM in its strongholds.
Also read: Threat to Roti, Mati, Beti: How BJP’s Bangladeshi ‘Infiltration’ Bogey Is Playing Out in Jharkhand
Given that even a minor swing can stand to affect the final tally in the 81-member assembly, the BJP is hoping to gain a few seats in JMM strongholds in regions like Santhal Pargana, South Chotanagpur, and Kolhan, while really targeting the Congress in other regions through its anti-Muslim canvassing.
Congress’s performance
Such a state of affairs has pushed the Congress into an unenviable position. The grand old party is contesting 29 seats, and its performance is crucial in catapulting the INDIA bloc to its second term in the government. It contested 30 seats in 2019 and won 16 in 2019. In 2024, the Congress is contesting 29 seats, most of those in a straight contest with the saffron party.
A similar situation where the Congress’s poor performance had cost the INDIA bloc greatly was in the 2020 Bihar assembly elections. “It had contested 70 seats but could win only 19, which eventually stopped the mahagathbandhan (opposition alliance) to form a government despite the fact that the Rashtriya Janata Dal finished as the single-biggest party in Bihar. Congress is INDIA’s Achilles’ heel,” Shaji Joseph, former resident editor of Hindustan Times in Ranchi told The Wire.
Precisely because of such factors, a second term for Soren hinges to a great extent on the Congress’s performance. The Congress itself has had a lacklustre campaign. It lacks a prominent face in the state; its top leaders have focussed more on the simultaneous Maharashtra assembly election and Wayanad by-poll (where Priyanka Gandhi is contesting for the first time) and have largely ignored the eastern state. It has also failed to take on the BJP’s shrill anti-Muslim rhetoric in the campaign with strength, and as a result its fortunes are mostly dependent on some of its leaders whose influence may not be statewide but who are known as strong contenders in their respective seats.
Jairam Mahato
However, muddying the waters for the BJP is an emerging leader of Jharkhand, Jairam Mahato, whose party the Jharkhand Loktantrik Krantikari Morcha (JLKM), may offset the NDA’s social equations, and eventually help both the JMM and the Congress in multiple seats. In merely three years, ever since he led a movement against the recognition of Maithili and Bhojpuri as official languages and then went on to begin a campaign for the implementation of the 1932 Khatiyan (domicile recognition for only those whose family names were recorded in the land records of 1932) to demand reservation for Jharkhand’s people, Mahato has garnered huge popularity among the youth.
A young man belonging to the Other Backward Class Shundi community, Rakesh Mandal, told The Wire in Dumri, “Humein apna bhavishya dekhna hai (we have to secure our future in the elections).” Mandal implied that only if Jairam Mahato’s demands surrounding Jharkhandi identity are met, their futures can be secured. Mandal also belongs to a numerically-influential community that is seen as strong supporters of the BJP.
However, given the JLKM’s lack of an electoral record, how much it can affect existing social equations is a matter of speculation, currently.
“It is surely a neck-and-neck contest. The BJP has consolidated its house, while the JMM, too, has improved its support among the adivasis and Muslims. In that case, where the OBCs swing will be the deciding factor, even as a possible JMM-led government entirely rests on Congress’s shoulders,” Anuj Sinha, executive editor of Ranchi-based Hindi daily Prabhat Khabar, told The Wire.
Against such a backdrop, the Jharkhand elections will also be a crucial test for the larger political question on whether welfarist governance, on which the Soren dispensation has placed all its bets, can actually galvanise different sections and trump the caste and community equations at play.